The waiting is over, the sprint begins. Seven rounds of Premier League fixtures starting this weekend, one game will have started by the time this newsletter is sent out. Title races, relegation battles, sub plots and narratives. All here. Issue 88. Go.

Arsenal could go 12 points clear on Saturday (albeit having played two games more than rivals Manchester City), if they do manage to extend the gap to double figures it will ask an even bigger question of Pep Guardiola’s men.

Arne Slot has seemingly lost his mind after the switch to an out of possession five at the back in the Champions League. The kind of tactical tweak that comes from a point of almost desperation rather than innovation.

It feels as if Bernardo Silva’s days at Manchester City could be coming to an end. Nothing explicitly confirmed but the Portuguese is out of contract at the end of the season and with Antonie Semenyo among the Etihad ranks now, the need to tie the 31-year-old down to a new deal is less vital.

Of course, there also has to be the desire from Silva himself to sign a new deal but after joining from Monaco in 2017, you can understand why he would be tempted to try out a new footballing outpost.

Eddie Howe will be feeling the pressure at Newcastle. The club CEO David Hopkinson could have perhaps been a little more reassuring with his recent comments, comments that have led to a response by the manager himself

The former Bournemouth boss says he is 100% committed to the club but it is difficult to look past the end of the season. To be honest, I don’t think anyone connected with the club is looking further ahead than May 24th right now.

Roberto De Zerbi has said that he does not consider himself to be better than either Thomas Frank or Igor Tudor. I think the Italian is being a little too humble for his own good. If you’re saying you’re not better than Spurs’ previous boss, that’s not necessarily the best message to the club’s support.

Chelsea making eye-watering losses once again. A deficit of £262m for the 2024/25 season. They say it’s Champions League or bust at Stamford Bridge, they still have to convince UEFA that the books all add up.

Back in Issue 46, I look at how important it is for Premier League teams to not concede more than 2.00 goals per game on average. If you do not want to go back and read the article, anything over that figure is the death knell for your survival hopes.

Which actually bodes well for each of the four teams that are doing their best to avoid relegation and even Burnley and Wolves for that matter - even though both their proverbial geese are all but cooked.

If we look at the numbers in this chart:

(GFPG is Goals For Per Game, GAPG is Goals Against Per Game)

We can see that although none of the bottom six have conceded more than 2.00 goals per game, it is their attacking output that is the issue. None of the six teams even surpass 1.50 goals per game on average.

Their defence may be tight by usual relegation standards, but there is no margin for error at the other end of the pitch. Blunt attacks in what is already a low scoring season, is causing all kinds of woe.

When you average between 0.77 and 1.29 goals per game, every match becomes a low-scoring coin flip. Concede first and the probability of taking anything from the game drops sharply.

This is the key shift from traditional relegation narratives. It is no longer purely about being defensively porous; it is about misfiring up top.

The data suggests these teams are not being blown away week after week, instead, they are slowly suffocating in games where they cannot land a decisive punch.

In that sense, the “Case for the Defence” almost becomes a case against it. Not because it is failing, but because it is masking the real issue.

By keeping games tight, these teams remain competitive, but without the firepower to capitalise, they are stuck in a cycle of narrow defeats and low-yield draws.

Ultimately, survival in the Premier League is not just about limiting damage, it is about doing enough damage yourself. And right now, that is where the bottom six are falling short.

If any side can find a purple patch in front of goal in the final seven games of the season, it may offer enough salvation in their bid to stay up - although perhaps not enough as far as Burnley and Wolves are concerned.

A look at the main talking points as we head into the upcoming Premier League weekend schedule.

Friday night football under the London Stadium lights as West Ham play host to Wolves. No need to go into depth as the final whistle may have already blown by the time you read this.

However, the magnitude of this clash cannot be underestimated. If the Hammers managed to pick up maximum points, it will not only make their relegation rivals sweat but more importantly take them out of the bottom three for at least 48 hours.

Over to you Tottenham?

Arsenal were far from their best in midweek as they squeezed out a Champions League win in Portugal over Sporting. Not their best performance in recent weeks but a much needed outcome after suffering back-to-back defeats in domestic cups. Offer the same outcome after not hitting the high notes against Bournemouth and there will be no complaints.

They welcome the Cherries who have drawn each of their last five Premier League outings and have drawn 15 of their 31 games of the season. Andoni Iraola’s men have only lost on seven occasions - the fourth lowest figure in the division, can their stubbornness lead them to a half dozen of successive stalemates?

After dropping four points in their last two Premier League outings, Brentford will be keen to return to winning ways. Not only to crank up the pressure on the misfiring pair of Liverpool and Chelsea above but also to keep Everton at bay in the race for what could be the last invite to European football.

By the same token, Everton will be keen to build on their 3-0 win over Chelsea in their last league outing. The hiatus arguably coming at the wrong time for David Moyes but after kicking their heels for so long, the Toffees know that back-to-back league wins will thrust them into sixth for at least 24 hours.

Five at the back in Paris for Arne Slot, Liverpool lucky not to have conceded five against the Champions League holders. It has been a rather wretched week for the Merseyside men after also suffering an FA Cup humbling at the hands of Manchester City. It could still get worse if they fail to get the better of Fulham on Saturday.

The Cottagers arrive at Anfield having beat Burnley by three goals to one in their last league outing. That win places Marco Silva’s side in ninth and with one of the two clubs guaranteed to drop points (maybe even both), they will look to take full advantage of what happens at the GTech Community Stadium.

Nottingham Forest’s fortune was certainly in on Thursday after being handed the most ludicrous own goal you will ever see by FC Porto. Now after a Europa League draw in Portugal, the City Ground outfit will be keen to build on their impressive 3-0 demolition of Tottenham before the break.

They play host to an Aston Villa side who now have one foot in the last four of this season’s Europa League but also want to make sure that they qualify for the Champions League. Winning Europe’s second tier competition would give them a ticket but securing a top five finish Premier League would offer the same prize. A must win game for both sides, perhaps Forest need it that little bit more.

Sunderland’s last league outing before the break was their 2-1 derby win over Newcastle. Victory that sees them move past the 40-point marker and still keep their hopes of European football alive. Now Regis Le Bris and his players need to keep their engines ticking over for the final seven games of the season.

The first of those is the visit of Tottenham and another new era for the North London outfit. One that sees Roberto De Zerbi at the helm and with Spurs potentially sitting in the bottom three before the game gets underway, there is simply no time for transition. The players have to learn his methods, hopefully the penny has already dropped during this Premier League pause. A huge game on Wearside.

Crystal Palace made light work of Fiorentina on Thursday in the Conference League and their bid to give Oliver Glasner the perfect send off moves a step further in the right direction. Now though, the Eagles will look to take a step in the right direction in the Premier League after being held by Leeds in their last outing.

They welcome the visit of Newcastle on Sunday and with the Magpies’ route to Europe looking like it is being delayed due to engineering works, manager Eddie Howe knows that his players need to engineer some consistency in the final stretch of the season. The fans still have the defeat to Sunderland in their minds, they need a reason to forget it.

Chelsea have an FA Cup semi-final against Leeds to look forward to but before that they need to revive their bid for a top five finish in the Premier League. Beaten by Everton in their last outing, a small amount of player mutiny has taken place since. Enzo Fernandez has said sorry for his comments but it is not enough to see him back in the fold on Sunday.

Which means the Argentine is unavailable for the visit of Manchester City and with the Etihad outfit now seemingly with their tails up, it is left to see whether they run out of road in this season’s title race. Erling Haaland has seemingly woken from his slumber after that treble against Liverpool, nothing but a win will do for City in this one.

Manchester United have made huge strides up the table under interim boss Michael Carrick now they just have to finish the task in hand by securing a top five finish in the Premier League and a subsequent return to Europe’s elite will be the reward. The task at hand begins on Monday with the visit of Leeds, they will hope to still be third by the time the game gets underway.

As for Leeds, they have been scratching for every point of late and this is reflected by picking up just four from the last 18 on offer. All of them coming courtesy of stalemate, Daniel Farke’s men have not won any of their last six and must now use FA Cup progress as the springboard to at least one more league win before the end of the campaign.

Nike are investigating issues with their World Cup shirts. Players during the international break displayed bulging around the shoulder area. In that case, you may want to wait before you spend £100 or more on a replica.

Arne Slot insisted that he has “complete support” from the Liverpool board and its fans. Trust me if you read some of the messages in my Whatsapp football group, that would be far from the case.

It has been a season of protests at Celtic Park and with the supporter group known as The Green Brigade being previously banned, there has now been an instance of kissing and making up between themselves and the club board.

A marriage of convenience as the Scottish Premiership season heats up, can their return help Celtic to another league crown or is it too little too late?

Luciano Spaletti has confirmed his future at Juventus after signing a three-year deal with the Turin outfit. The deal was penned to ward off the Italian FA who are now looking to replace Gennaro Gattuso.

Does Italian football only have about seven managers who just move around all the top jobs, it certainly feels like it.

You missed the deadline for this week didn’t you

Right, that’s the end of issue 88 as word continues to spread around the football world.

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Issue 89 drops Tuesday, I’ll be back with another round of insight, analysis and trends that matter. Any feedback or comments on this issue, contact me below:

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