Issue 46 - Two Is Trouble

Making a case for the defence is never easy, especially when you are leaking goals. Which clubs are in danger of being relegated, do the odds stack against you the more generous you are. Numbers crunched, weekend previewed, news filtered. Issue 46. Go.

An Unwanted Pair

As we enter the 11th week of this current Premier League season, it is fair to say that the table has started to level out. Obviously there is still going to be fluidity throughout the competition but it looks as if the division is breaking into more natural grouping.

You have the top group which mops up title chasers and European qualification

You have the middle group which covers 9th to 14th.

Then of course, there is the remaining six teams who are looking to avoid the drop.

Teams may change fron one tier to the other, fortunes may get better or worse but at the same time, we are unlikely to see Arsenal drop to mid-table just as much as we are to witness West Ham moving into Europe.

Therefore, we can start to assume that what group a team is in now, will be their range of final position come the end of the season.

Nervous news if you are in the bottom six before the weekend, even more so if your defence is handed out gifts each week and worse still, when crunching the numbers of relegated teams.

Fixing The Leaks

Since the inception of the Premier League in 1992, 100 clubs have been relegated across its 33 seasons.

You can get relegated for a numnber of external factors, factors such as:

• Injuries

• Poor Managerial Appointments

• Not Enough Goals At One End

• Too Many At The Other

And when we look at the last of the four options above, it begs the question; how many goals is too many?

Of those 100 relegated clubs since the 1992/93 season - 30 of them have conceded an average of 2.00 goals per game or more.

Of those 30, only two have still managed to avoid relegation (Wigan 2009/10 and Leeds 2021/22) for those keeping score.

Just a 6.6% chance of safety if you go past the unwanted metric of two or more conceded.

Fast forward to this season and who are the teams that have already surpassed the ratio:

Not good reading if you are a West Ham or Wolves supporter. These are the two outfits that have crossed the threshold and it is without coincidence that they also find themselves in the bottom three.

Both teams have already made a managerial switch (Wolves still in progress), and with the dice rolled, the objective for Nuno Espirito Santo and whoever enters the madness at Molineux will be to drive that average down to below 2.00

Not that Burnley and Nottingham Forest fans can relax either, both teams hover dangerously close at 1.9 goals against per game. the Clarets hovering dangerously close to the drop zone, their City Ground counterparts already there.

Which means whoever can get their house in order the quickest will at least by themselves some breathing space. Then again, you can also go down with a much lower goal average against, it’s just that anything 2.00 seems to lead to Championship purgatory.

Ten Quick Tackles

A look at the main talking points as we head into the upcoming Premier League weekend.

Tottenham vs Manchester United

Saturday lunchtime treats us to a repeat of last season’s Europa League final as Tottenham play host to Manchester United. Spurs were rather blunt a week ago when at home to Chelsea, they found their sharpness in attack when making light work of Copenhagen in the Champions League.

An extra midweek fixture for them, no such exploits for United and after seeing their winning streak halted by Nottingham Forest last Saturday, manager Ruben Amorim will hope that fresher legs can reboot their winning tally to 1 and susbequently moved ahead of Spurs in the table.

West Ham vs Burnley

One of two all bottom five clashes takes place this weekend and when looking at goals against averages the meeting between West Ham and Burnley could see fortunes changed within the space of 90 minutes - especially as the Hammers are looking for their second successive home win.

While Scott Parker’s Burnley make the trip to London having seen their burgeoning winning streak come to an end last Saturday. The Clarets bested by Arsenal at Turf Moor - no shame in that of course but a win at the London Stadium would create a six point gap between themselves and Saturday’s hopes.

Everton vs Fulham

The new stadium glow may have faded in Everton’s last home game but they will be keen to use it to their advantage once more on Saturday. The Toffees had to dig dip for a draw at Sunderland on Monday and with that stalemate at the Stadium of Light, they have only picked up one point from the last nine on offer.

David Moyes’ men in need of a win, Fulham found theirs last weekend at home to Wolves. Marco Silva returning to the blue half of Merseyside and if he can oversee a second successive league win it would see the Cottagers move up to 12th by the end of Saturday afternoon.

Sunderland vs Arsenal

When the season started, this fixture would have looked rather simple on paper. Fast forward to the start of November and the same level of ease may not be applied to Sunderland’s visit of Arsenal. Regis Le Bris’ side still unbeaten at home in the Premier League, the Black Cats have only conceded three goals in their first five at home.

The same number of goals that Arsenal have conceded all season to date, their average of 0.3 goals against is nothing short of the gold standard at present and after success in midweek in Europe, manager Mikel Arteta may feel that his squad are capable of landing gold on both domestic and continental fronts.

Chelsea vs Wolves

Chelsea made incredibly light work of Tottenham last Saturday. A 1-0 win in the record books but pipe and slippers out for large durations of the game, if it needed to be more then they would have found another gear. Then again, they failed to find that gear in the Champions League in midweek. A 2-2 draw at Qarabag serving as a coupon buster for many.

Now though, Enzo Maresca and his players will fancy returning to winning ways at the closest possible opportunity and for good reason. A hapless Wolves outfit make their second trip to West London and if they play close to how they did against Fulham last weekend, they could be in for another long afternoon.

Crystal Palace vs Brighton

The rivalry which is definitely not a derby takes place this Sunday as Crystal Palace play host to Brighton. The Eagles enter the clash having not only got the better of Brentford at home last weekend but also having made light work of AZ Alkmaar in the Europa Conference League on Thursday.

They prepare to give a hostile welcome to a Brighton side that have only won one league game on the road this season. However, this was the recent 3-1 win at Chelsea and with the added needle to being applied to this encounter, the Seagulls will hope to swoop in after an additional rest and pick up their second away league win of the season.

Aston Villa vs Bournemouth

Aston Villa’s week has certainly been an interesting one, a Europa League win played to the backdrop of protests but hardly anyone in their Villa Park stadium on Thursday. Their 2-0 win over Maccabi Tel Aviv serving as the perfect tonic after a rather forgettable display at Anfield last weekend.

This Sunday sees them play host to a Bournemouth side that are now looking to craft another lengthy unbeaten run in the Premier League. Their last attempt was ended at eight games after defeat at Manchester City last Sunday and with three points seperating second to ninth before the weekend, they can ill afford to suffer a second successive loss.

Brentford vs Newcastle

Brentford failed to inspire at Crystal Palace last weekend and they will be looking for greater joy when back in front of their own support. Considering the opposition that they are up against, they will have every reason to believe another home win is not all that far away.

Not to Newcastle supporting readers a massive disservice but we all know they have not been travelling well this season. One of four teams that are yet to earn an away win in the league, Eddie Howe’s men have just scored twice away from St James’ Park. They cannot play any worse than last Sunday’s showing at West Ham but can they play any better?

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds

The second of the weekend’s all bottom five clashes takes place at the City Ground as Nottingham Forest play host to Leeds. Sean Dyche still looking for his first league win as manager of the club, he and his players had to make do with a frustrating midweek Europa League draw at Austrian outfit Sturm Graz.

As for visitors Leeds, they travel to Nottingham having been rolled over at Brighton last Saturday. Arguably their worst showing of the season so far and not something that Daniel Farke’s men can repeat with too much regularity. Is this the clash where Dyche earns that first win for Forest? I have a feeling it might be.

Manchester City vs Liverpool

On the assumption that Arsenal win on Saturday, whatever the outcome between Manchester City and Liverpool the following day, it is fair to say that the Gunners will be the biggest benefactors. A title eliminator at the Etihad, should this one end up in a draw it is arguably the worst outcome for both challengers.

Which is why both sides will be tempted to go for the jugular, City only have one player who has scored more than one league goal before Sunday but it does not matter when Erling Haaland is firing on all cylinders, Liverpool showed signs of life in their last two outings. Make sure you book the telly and turn your phone off for a couple of hours on Sunday.

Predictive Power

They are the main takeaways but what are the main outputs from my AI predictive model?

Six results right last week including a correct 1-1 prediction between Sunderland and Everton. Not bad Mr AI. Not bad.

What do you think the scores will be this weekend. Can you beat AI? Let me know in the comments below.

The Filter Five

Five sprints up the touchline to keep you warm

Selling San Siro

First reported in the summer, but now official. The San Siro in its current guise will soon be no more. Inter and AC Milan have announced that they are going to purchase the ground before starting a fresh with a new design.

One of the last great pure football stadiums but in danger of becoming a relic at the same time. Everything is about revenue and fan experience - factors that Italian football needs to play catch up on if it is to try and show more muscle at the European level.

Refusing Their Calls

In the previous issue, I referenced Wolves search for a new manager and how local ties could be a factor for current Middlesbrough boss Rob Edwards. The Molineux outfit are interested but the Championship side are not allowing an approach.

This is where is starts to get murky. Do Wolves persist and wear Middlesbrough down. Do Middlesbrough begrudginly allow an approach? Does Edwards have to resign in order to then manage a club he previously played for. There is still a lot of mileage left in this one.

Something About Mary

Mary Earps’ press circuit seems no signs of slowing down with an abundance of interviews surrounding her book release. No doubt the bottom line will be healthy once the Christmas book charts are rounded of but at what overall cost to the former England international?

Where Is Welbeck

No Danny Welbeck in England squad (shame). Although there is a debut call for Bournemouth’s Alex Scott. Talking of Alex Scott, she is reported to be in the new series of I’m a Celebrity. Can she follow in the steps of Jill Scott and be the queen of the jungle?

Fantasy Stuff

FPL deadline is 11:00 Saturday morning (UK time). Erling Haaland or Joao Pedro captain is the biggest debate in fantasy world. Who are you opting for?

Admin

Right, that’s the end of issue 46 as word continues to spread around the football world.

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