Champions of England to maybe falling out of the Championship. Quite the decade for a second tier outfit that is making the news this week. Points shaved off, League One looming. Another Premier League weekend starts in a few hours, no waiting. Issue 71. Go.

Six Points Deducted

It feels like a death by a thousand cuts for Leicester at present, their latest could serve to be the deepest of the lot. The Foxes deducted six points after breaking the Premier League’s PSR rules, the EFL handing out the punishment on Thursday.

That in itself, is rather messy but not as messy as Leicester’s books these last few seasons. The King Power Stadium outfit feeling the power of financial infringement, their punishment could have been worse.

It could have been 12 points removed, it should have been seven - one of those penalty points scrubbed off as Leicester were at least showing some intent in trying to get their house in order.

The intent may be there from a financial aspect but the same cannot be said for their current state on the field of play. No manager after the sacking of Marti Cienfuentes last month. the club’s wider infrastructure now creaking at the seems.

Looking Behind Them

Their points punishment now keeps them just above the Championshp relegation zone on goal difference alone. They have a better record than Blackburn, they travel to Ewood Park on the final day of the season.

It could be a winner take all clash, it could be a dead rubber as both teams’ fate is already decided. Leicester newfound relegation rivals also in a state of agonisingly slow decline, Blackburn’s home attendance for the recent win over stricken Sheffield Wednesday paltry.

Paltry because of their owners who also deal in Poultry, part of the reason for the 12,285 attendance in midweek was due to the stay-away protests towards the Venky’s, the other part just sheer apathy in that part of Lancashire.

The Icarus Moment

Whether it be Blackburn, Sheffield Wednesday or Leicester, it only seems to hammer home the cautionary tale of life in the Championship. You fly close to the sun in terms of trying to get back with the elite, you get your feathers burned if the journey is incomplete.

Blackburn Premier League champions in 1995, Leicester doing the same 21 years later. The latter more of a fairytale when compared to the Jack Walker era of spending at Ewood Park but both successes disrupting the recognised elite of English football.

Rovers not in the big time since their relegation from the Premier League at the end of 2011/12, they even spent a season in League One back in 2017/18 - a further cautionary tale to Leicester perhaps.

Leicester fans probably would not swap either their Premier League or FA Cup success of the past decade for the situaion they currently find themselves in. Problem is, they should not have too either.

Trying New Positions

In one of last week’s issues, I made reference to ‘The Hundred Club’ - not a list of players who have scored 100 goals or anything like that but a look at each of the Premier League’s current crop of 20 and how they have performed across their last 100 outings.

A top layer of insight that you can read here if you missed it last week but also the serving ground to add another layer. Because what are stats without any context? Nothing.

20 teams listed in order of how many games they have won across their last 100 in the top tier an indicator of form across two years rather than two months, the bumps ironed out and the statistical noise silenced.

But what does it mean when that ranking is compared to current league positions (as of 6th Feb 2026)?

  • Sunderland is arguably the most striking case. Historically the 19th best team when it comes to rolling 100 form. Their current league standing sees them 11 places better off.

  • While Manchester United, even for all their woes in recent seasons are overperforming their historical form. Seventh with a win percentage of 40 - matching the league average, Michael Carrick’s men three places better off

  • The inverse of Liverpool as the Merseyside outfit are third historically with a win percentage of 60%. Their sixth place in the table and obvious indication of underperformance

  • Across Merseyside, Everton are also beating their historic pattern of form. 14th in terms of historical ranking, David Moyes’ side four places better off

  • As just referenced, the league average is 40 wins. Spurs now two wins below average when looking at their win percentage, they are six places worse off currently than their historical rank

  • Newcastle also failing when compared to historical performance, they have won 47% of their last 100 matches. They should be sitting sixth in the league table if there was pure correlation between the two ranks.

A few snapshots there in trying to build a more quantitive picture in to how a team is performing this season and arguably where they should be. If anything, it just goes how to share how non-linear the Premier League actually is and why it generates so much entertainment.

This data is dynamic so the chart can be updated each week, I may look to track movement up and down this table when it comes to win % - it may need a subpage to really reward subscribers so they can get more insights for their loyalty.

Something for me to think about but the stats above should certainly give you something to think about. Get in touch if you want to discuss further.

Feedback on ‘subscriber only’ datasets also welcomed.

Ten Quick Tackles

A look at the main talking points as we head into the upcoming Premier League weekend schedule.

Leeds vs Nottingham Forest

Friday night under the Elland Road lights as Leeds play host to Nottingham Forest, not to go as far as relegation six pointer but you can understand why the Sky cameras have opted for West Yorkshire tonight. There could be a lot riding on what happens, not only for the two teams involved but others either side of them.

Leeds well beaten by Arsenal last weekend, manager Daniel Farke will hope that is nothing more than the outlier when looking at recent home. Managerial counterpart Sean Dyche brings his Forest charges into battle having collected back-to-back league wins on the road. Play to win or play not to lose? We shall see.

Manchester United vs Tottenham

Perfection for Michael Carrick as United boss, your guess as is good as mine when it comes to what the higher ups will do in terms of permanent decisions. That said the former Tottenham midfielder can certainly strengthen his own case if he can lead the Red Devils to a fourth successive league win.

While it is back-to-back Manchester opponents for Spurs, fighting to get a point at City’s expense last Sunday. They should not have got themselves into that position when you consider their poor showing in the first 45. A win for either Leeds or Forest the night before will only increase the stress that manager Thomas Frank is feeling right now.

Bournemouth vs Aston Villa

Unbeaten in their last four, the mood seems well within the Bournemouth camp right now. The Cherries pulling clear of any real relegation concerns, another win this weekend and Andoni Iraola’s men may allow themselves to enter the conversation when it comes to securing European football next season.

Standing in their way of a third successive league win are an Aston Villa side who have just lost their stride these past couple of weeks. Home defeats either side of their recent away win at Newcastle. For a team that is meant to be at its best at Villa Park, it may need to channel their recent win on the road to have any joy down on the South Coast.

Arsenal vs Sunderland

The perfect combination last weekend, now it is time to apply further pressure on Manchester City. Assume nothing when it comes to the Premier League but if this one goes to plan, the Gunners will find themselves nine points clear of Pep Guardiola’s men - a huge psychological boost that comes with getting your games in first.

The league leaders welcome Sunderland and with the two sides playing out a highly entertaining 2-2 draw back in November, Regis Le Bris will be hopeful that his Black Cats can once again match Arsenal blow for blow. At the same time, they are a different beast away from home and they may have to prepare the blow that comes with a loss.

Burnley vs West Ham

It feels as if Burnley have pulled up a seat at the last chance saloon. Their hopes of survival were miniscule anyway, they could fade into nothing if they fail to get the better of West Ham on Saturday. Then again, a win for Scott Parker’s men could serve as the impetus to start what would be an unlikely escpae act in East Lancashire.

As for West Ham, they will have a keen eye on what happens at Elland Road the night before. Any winner there will make the Hammers’ task harder in terms of survival but should there be a share of the points, Nuno’s men could subsequently drag two teams into the firing line with an away win. Unluckly last weekend, any luck this?

Fulham vs Everton

The most mid-table of mid-table clashes taking place at Craven Cottage on Saturday but the meeting between Fulham and Everton is far from a dead rubber. Both sides in the lowest reaches of the top half but both also knowing that a win could thrust them much further up the table.

The Cottagers’ form precisely what you would expect from a mid-table side. Their last six games have seen two wins, two draws and two losses. Opponents Everton managed to nick a point at Brighton last weekend - David Moyes’ men now unbeaten in each of their last four, this looks a tough one to call.

Wolves vs Chelsea

All Wolves can do now between this weekend and the final one of the campaign is play the role of spoiler. Any opponents that have hopes or the need for points are more than likely to collect them at the expense of the Molineux men, the least that Rob Edwards’ side can do is make it difficult for them.

Which means Saturday will see them try to ratchet up the difficulty at the expense of Chelsea. The Blues reeling after their Carabao Cup semi-final defeat at the hands of Arsenal but they do arrive in the West Midlands having won each of their last three league matches. Considering their current form, they will be confident of making it four.

Newcastle vs Brentford

A rough Wednesday night for Newcastle as they were also dumped out of the Carabao Cup. A 3-1 defeat to Manchester City once again heaping the pressure on manager Eddie Howe but as we have seen before, it only needs a home win for an element of normality to retutn to Tyneside.

This Saturday evening sees them play host to a Brentford that are showing nothing normal about their own season. The team that a lot of people tipped to fail have failed to live up to that expectation. Keith Andrews’ men currently in the European places and although they are without Kevin Schade, they will be keen to solidify their current stance.

Brighton vs Crystal Palace

Remember this clash is not a derby but it is still one that is always keenly anticipated by both Brighton and Crystal Palace supporters. James Milner’s potential appearance record the sub-plot to Sunday’s clash, the main narrative is that both teams could do with an additional three points in their bank account.

Brighton have drawn 10 of their 24 league matches, they have not won any of their last four. As for visitors Palace, they have not won any of their last nine league outings - the second longest current streak in the Premier League without a win. Brighton supporters that I know say that they already know how this one ends up.

Liverpool vs Manchester City

Top billing on Sunday but a game that almost has an air of former heavyweight champions looking for one last pay day. Liverpool outside the Champions League places before they welcome Manchester City to Anfield on Sunday, they will be hoping Manchester United and Chelsea do not land knockout blows the day before.

As for Manchester City, the only thing they can hope for is that they are not nine points behind Arsenal before they enter the field of play. Should that be the case and they fail to bring the measure back down to six, you may as well start preparing for the Arsenal title parade. Will Pep Guardiola’s men be on the canvas just after 18:30 on Sunday?

The Filter Five

Five news snippets before the weekend

Sales In Saudi

N’Golo Kante almost sells himself to Fenerbahce, Cristiano Ronaldo on strike at Al-Nassr. Karim Benzema switches from one PIF club to another. Is the SPL gold rush coming to an end?

Rodriguez, James Rodriguez

If you think former Real Madrid star James Rodriguez’ career path took a strange turn after joining Everton, it has seemingly got stranger since. A move to Qatar after his time at Goodison. Outposts at Olympiacos, Sao Paulo and La Liga outfit Rayo Vallecano thereafter.

The movement did not stop there for one of the players that lit up the 2014 World Cup, Leon of Liga MX his current employers. However, another stop on his world tour is set to be added, with a switch to Minnesota United lined up. Another name for the MLS but another one that is perhaps five years late in his arrival.

Duran Duran Tour

Which leads us to another Colombian and his own world tour. If Rodriguez is playing out his last few dates, compatriot Jhon Duran is seemingly promoting that difficult second album.

Another player who has already been to Saudi Arabia and moved on, his most recent club was the loan stint at Fenerbahce. However, the Turkish outfit are not making the deal permament, instead a move to Russian giants Zenit Saint Petersburg is in the works.

Six clubs and he is only 22, he could be the highest profile journeyman we have ever seen if he keeps up

Worse Than Thought

Of course, a move to Russia also means the inability to play in European club competition. That is unless FIFA president Gianni Infantino gets his way. His commets in the week suggesting that Russia should be bought of the footballing cold.

You think Sepp Blatter was someone lacking morals, even Infantino makes him look like a saint by comparison.

Fantasy Stuff

The FPL is on the horizon this weekend. Deadline is 18:45 this evening. Do not forget.

Admin

Right, that’s the end of issue 71 as word continues to spread around the football world.

This isn’t a newsletter that follows the crowd. It sets the lens through which you see the game and more than 170 subscribers are now viewing it through that lens.

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Issue 72 drops Friday and I’ll be back with another round of insight, analysis and trends that matter. Any feedback or comments on this issue, contact me below:


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