Is this the longest month in living memory? It honestly feels like it. Celebrate it almost ending by diving into another round of thoughts, opinion and stats. If you like all three of these things, you are in for a treat. More Premier League musings. Issue 69. Go.

Everyone talks about the form guide. I am just as guilty. Throughout this newsletter, you will often see ‘unbeaten in their last six’ or ‘no win in three’ as examples of using patterns of results as a point of reference.

Helpful as an indicator as to how good or how bad a team is doing during any period of time but what if we (football in general) were to expand that concept even further?

But Dan, we already do. It’s called a league table.

A league table is the measure of performance across a season up to that current moment in time or when it is completed. Surely that is enough of an extension?

Maybe but what if we were to think bigger?

How could we flatten out the form guide or even league table to remove all the bumps of a bad spell or a bad campaign?

I think I may have the answer. Answer that comes with mapping out form from a team’s last 100 league matches. ‘

So that is exactly what I did, I looked at each of the current 20 Premier League teams and calculated how successful they have been in their last century of league outings and the best thing about the dataset is that it now updates with every league game that plays.

One game rolls on, another game rolls off. Statistical angles for breakfast, lunch and dinner. A new lens on who a team performs over a longer period of time, who are the true overperformers, who are the true underachievers?

First here are some baseline stats that setup the data:

Insights:

Observations:

In short, the rolling 100 gives us a deeper, more nuanced view of the Premier League. It’s a lens that turns raw results into insight, allowing me and you the susbcribers to see the game in motion, not just at a moment in time.

Interested in finding out more, get in touch through the usual channels

You wait until the very last second of the final Champions League Matchday of the league phase and you witness one of the craziest moments we will see all the season. Benfica sneaking into the top 24 by virtue of their goalkeeper scoring, who honestly knows if the new format is a success or not.

It will be for English clubs as five of their six make it into the Round of 16 directly, Newcastle picking the short straw and being handed a long play-off trip as a consequence.

Eddie Howe’s men off to Qarabag. Not ideal in terms of distance travelled for one of the two legs. Arguably ideal when it comes to the route to the final thereafter. Should they clear this hurdle, their European nights will feel like Carabao adventures.

It could then be a sequence of Chelsea, Tottenham then Arsenal in the next three rounds. The might of the Premier League may end up eating itself, Bayern Munich’s procession to the Bundesliga may even give them a tipping point when it comes to European success.

The league phase felt like it was bloated at times, everything boiling down to the final Matchday and not a lot else. Even 18 games at once felt migraine inducing to keep up with, live league tables being refreshed at breakneck speed.

The Swiss League has certainly offered a refeshment to the early stage of the competition but because teams are not taking directly points off each other within the confines of a four-team group, it sometimes feels a little pointless.

Then again, you try telling Jose Mourinho and Benfica players that after their midweek madness.

Their reward for getting the better of Real Madrid and entering the last 24?

Yep, Real Madrid…..again. Typical UEFA that.

A look at the main talking points as we head into the upcoming Premier League weekend schedule.

Three 3pm kickoffs for the ailing traditionalists on Saturday afternoon. One of those is at Molineux as Wolves play host to Bournemouth. Rob Edwards’ men have picked up four points from their last two home games, admittedly it means rather little in the grand scheme of things,

While the Cherries have recorded some grandstand finishes in each of their last two home league outings, form that has not been replicated on the road. Andoni Iraola’s men have not won any of their last nine outings away from the Vitality Stadium, they will have earmarked their run ended in the West Midlands.

When everything clicks and Elland Road is in full voice, it is never an easy place to go to. Something which can be backed up from having not lost any of their last five home league games. A set of results which includes visits from Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United.

Not the insight that Arsenal supporters will have wanted to read before the Gunners visit Yorkshire on Saturday. There is no doubt that the league leadersm are in a domestic rut, the question is whether they can get out of this weekend. If they can, the defeat to Manchester United is quickly, if they don’t……

Only one win in six for Brighton, no win in their last three. The Seagulls seem to be flapping about with a damaged wing of late. Denied a point at Fulham last Saturday, even home advantage may not be able to aid them on Saturday. This team is always capable of winning one every four games though, a ratio that will likely keep them safe from danger.

As for visitors Everton, they had to make do with a point against Leeds on Monday, manager David Moyes arrives on the South Coast now unbeaten in his last three games. A win at The Amex would no doubt thrust them further into the European conversation. Would it be a surprise if they came out on top?

Chelsea will be looking for a third successive league win under new boss Liam Rosenior, it is also London-based opposition for the third weekend in a row. Brentford and Crystal Palace already swatted aside at the start of the new regime, on paper the visit of West Ham will likely go the same way.

However, that may also end up doing West Ham something of a disservice. They have also won each of their last two league outings. Spurs and Sunderland ticked off but still languishing in the bottom three. The only way they can make serious inroads on the teams ahead is by making it three in a row themselves.

Avoided suffocation at home to Qarabag in midweek, Liverpool will now look to land their first Premier League win in six attempts. Four of their last five outings have been draws, their last showing was their reverse to Bournemouth last Saturday. The Merseyside men another team who wish they could play in Europe every week, they might not be in Europe if this run continues.

While Newcastle’s path to European football next season is littered by a cluster of teams sitting ahead of them. Known for indifference on the road, it was failure at home that did for them last Sunday. They should be boosted from their gritty showing in Paris on Wednesday, the first goal in this game could be the most important of the lot.

Michael Carrick has already brushed aside Manchester City and Arsenal, but is the task at the weekend harder? Is this the comedown from the natural high of the past fortnight or can this Manchester United crop continue their renaissance. A third win in a row will ask questions as to whether the Red Devils need more managerial change, Fulham lie in wait.

As for the Cottagers, as I referenced in Tuesday’s article, the rumours regarding Harry Wilson are now underway. A move to Italian football with his contract ending in a few months has been mooted, another match winning performance like last weekend and his list of suitors will only lengthen further. One defeat in six for Fulham, United be warned.

The subplot of the meeting between Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace already writes itself after the fallout between the two last Summer, the potential sale of Jean-Philippe Mateta from the latter to the former making things even more interesting. The goals that Sean Dyche needs to keep his team up, could eventually send the Eagles down in May.

The likely departure of Mateta feels like a case of will the last one to leave the Palace please turn off the lights. If Forest get the better of their visitors on Sunday, they will find themselves on level points with last season’s FA Cup winners. Would that be the result that jolts Steve Parish into action. Oliver Glasner’s depleted cast may be in trouble here.

Late drama at Villa Park on Thursday, their fans will hope for more sedate proceedings when they welcome Brentford on Sunday. More importantly, they will hope for maximum points in their bid to keep on Arsenal’s coattails. They missed an opportunity to make the Gunners sweat just a fortnight ago, Unai Emery knows his players cannot waste another.

As for Brentford, they will look to bounce back after their home defeat to Nottingham Forest last weekend. Another of those teams in the reaches of upper mid-table, a win and you think that the Bees could be a fixture in Europe next season. Defeat and you think, OK maybe not. Whichever way, they are still having a very solid campaign under Keith Andrews.

Remember a couple of seasons ago when Tottenham played host to Manchester City and there was the jeopardy as to whether to win or not. Victory would have boosted Spurs own hopes of earning a Champions League place, even if it meant Arsenal winning the league. As much as they would hate to see the Gunners march towards the title, the same jeopardy is not on offer this Sunday.

If only because Spurs Jekyll and Hyde season continues under Thomas Frank and this is something that City boss Pep Guardiola will be fully aware of. Erling Haaland back in the goals after scoring against Galatasaray in midweek, now he and his teammates will have to make sure they do not fall on the Tottenham-sized banana skin that has caught them out before.

One for the purists on Monday as Sunderland play host to Burnley at the Stadium of Light. A measure of how the two promoted sides respective fortunes have differed this season, the Black Cats alreay one more win from booking another season in the top flight - nobody would have envisaged that at the start of the season.

As for Burnley, they have been solid these past few games but lacked the flair required to win games. Their case may be helped by the arrival of James Ward-Prowse who joins from West Ham. He seems to be an unloved player these past couple of seasons, they will build a statue of him at Turf Moor if he somehow helps keep the club up.

We all know about Crystal Palace’s recent FA Cup defeat to Macclesfield. Regardless of the result, they announced they were giving their share of the gate receipts to the Sixth tier club.

A great gesture commended by all, but now the FA have decided this is not allowed. They claim an artificial financial boost to the non-league outfit, but why does it matter if its Palace’s decision to do so. More braindead thinking from the powers that be.

Right, that’s the end of issue 69 as word continues to spread around the football world.

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Issue 70 drops Tuesday and I’ll be back with another round of insight, analysis and trends that matter. Any feedback or comments on this issue, contact me below:

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