Issue 17 - A Rash Decision

The market’s twitching and the stories keep swinging. Rashford to Barca. Palace vs UEFA? Wissa wants out.

Transfers, tantrums, and a tactical rethink in Serie A — let's filter the noise.

Moving From Manchester

It’s all change at the Theatre of Dreams and with Bryan Mbuemo’s move from Brentford finally being completed after weeks of negotiations, one striker in would also mean one other striker out.

Not a permanent basis or at least not yet and with Marcus Rashford switching over to the Camp Nou on a loan deal with an obligation, the 27-year-old will aim to make this temporary switch more successful than his last.

The previous temporary change saw Manchester exchanged for Birmingham. This time it is Manchester for Barcelona and although it does offer another fresh start for Rashford, playing La Liga minutes is not quite a done deal.

Because when it comes to Barcelona and new signings, economic levers always need to be pulled in one direction or another and just like when Dani Olmo joined the Spanish giants last season, Rashford has to now patiently wait for the numbers to add up.

The numbers need to add up because the seats need to be sold and with last season’s La Liga champions looking to raise £100m by selling off their VIP seats, it is that deal that holds up any player registration.

Last season saw Dani Olmo kicking his heels until the second half of the season. Picture the embarrasment if the same fate was bestowed to a player who has been kicking his heels at Old Trafford.

As always, Barcelona will look to move heaven and earth or at least move some money around their spreadsheets to get their latest capture registered, their first league game of the new La Liga is a vist to Real Mallorca on August 16th.

If for some reason, the ploy to sell their posh seats is foiled, it will not stop the Manchester United loanee from playing in pre-season clashes but you get the feeling manager Hansi Flick is going to want a lot more playing opportunites on the table.

Cheap English Exports

Which also begs question as to whether Rashford can keep Barcelona at the top of the La Liga table. There is always something of a distrust about English players who gone abroad on loan, it usually means their career is on the downward spiral.

Take Joe Hart’s loan to Torino and Micah Richards’ to Fiorentina. Both players earning too much money on their Premier League contracts, the only option is to send them offshore instead.

Which is part of the feeling you get with this latest switch from Manchester. Yes, we all know what Rashford is capable of doing and on his day, he can be a handful for anyone but does that day come around often enough?

A look at his last 58 Premier League appearances for Manchester United and Aston Villa would suggest maybe not. 13 goals gives just under a 1 in 5 ratio of goals to games, what could he do at Barca?

If we use the same Goal Exchange market that we used for Viktor Gyokeres, we can assume that a Premier League goal is worth 1.250 La Liga strikes.

Score eight in the English top flight and that equates to 10 in its Spanish counterpart.

If we take the 2021/22 and 2022/23 returns of 17 and 7 goals respectively and average them out to 12 per season. This is a 2025/26 Barcelona return of 15 goals - he is in the shop window, now he just needs to be good enough for a permanent deal.

If someone offered you the bet of Marcus Rashford to score 15 La Liga goals would you take it? Personally, I would not but then again, I am not part of Barcelona’s recruitment team so what do I know? I’ll leave the decision up to you.

Protests At The Palace

In news that is of absolutely no surprise to anyone, Crystal Palace have decided to appeal their demotion to the Europa Conference League and whatever the outcome, both CAS and UEFA are going to have to act fast.

The second qualifying round gets underway this week, the draw for the group stage is just over a month later. The South London outfit must feel that they have a chance otherwise they would have accepted their fate.

Now their fate lies in the hands of the highest level of sporting arbitration. The question that needs to be asked is whether they is a genuine reason for the demotion or where UEFA correct in upholding their own multi-club regulations.

With these regulations being so flimsy, it is hard to know what is the wrong or right decision due to the lack of precedent that has gone before us and had UEFA had consistency in their rulings, we would not be in this current state of deadlock.

Part of me thinks, Palace need to take their medicine and just get on with it. Part of me. thinks Nottingham Forest have played UEFA like a fiddle in all of this. Part of me just wants to get the season started and for this to all blow over.

The Wissa Takes It All

As referenced in the previous edition it does look as if Brentford’s steady house of cards is slowly collapsing and with Yoan Wissa being targeted by Newcastle, Tottenham and Nottingham Forest, a move from West London looks probable rather than possible.

With the DR Congo international having left Brentford’s pre-season training camp that is usually the first move in a protracted transfer saga and with three teams genuinely interested in his services, it is going to be incredible difficult for the Bees to fend them all off.

Newcastle have reported started the bidding at £25m - feels like a lowball offer but certainly enough to turn Wissa’s head and in the process, cause another headache for new manager Keith Andrews.

We also looked at Brentford’s odds to be relegated in the previous issue. Since then, they have shrunk 4.50 to 4.33. Not a huge movement but enough to think this is where the value bet could be if you place it now.

The Filter Five

Five more shots from distance

Xhaka Can

In what has to be the weirdest transfer rumour and most likely completed deal of the season. Granit Xhaka has stated a desire to move to Sunderland and in doing so, turn down a move to Saudi Arabia.

That says a lot about the Kingdom of Saudi Araboa if a move to Sunderland is preferable. Footballing reasons maybe but it can’t be for because Wearside is a more desirable place to live.

Serie To Saudi

Staying on the topic of Saudi Arabian transfers and one that is something of a surprise is the move of Mateo Retegui from Atalanta to Al-Qadsiah for £57m - a move that makes him the most expensive Italian player of all-time.

A fee that just tips over Sandro Tonali’s move to Newcastle and one that has caught European clubs out when you consider Retegui’s scoring output for Atalanta last season.

Such was the level of output that the now former Atalanta midfielder was the seventh best xG overperformer in Europe’s five major leagues when comparing his xG for the season against his goals.

A total xG of 18.9, 25 league goals. An overperformance of 6.1 goals and an output that has seen Retegui unlock his own Saudi gold rush. Now his new employers will hope to see a goal rush.

Shrimpers On Strike

In a number of developments that have come around due to a lack of developments, the Morecambe players have now officially gone on strike due to unpayment of wages by owner Jason Whittingham.

A move that was expected by many but a move that has obviously not got to Whittingham himself as the maligned Morecambe owner has said that his team will be playing AFC Flyde in an upcoming friendly.

Manager Derek Adams says his squad - or what is left of it are still training for now but whether they do actually cross the white line for this local derby remains to be seen - especially as the sale of the club still drags on.

More fun but no games it seems for now.

Brighton Clear Out

Brighton are having an interesting switch of the deckchairs lately and with Joao Pedro and Simon Adingra moving to Chelsea and Sunderland respectively, two more players have made their exits to Serie A.

Evan Ferguson who at one time was being linked with £50m moves to the likes of Manchester United and Arsenal now takes on a loan challenge at Roma after an uninspiring January loan at West Ham.

While Pervis Estupinan makes a rather surprise switch to AC Milan on a permanent deal. Brighton always have regenerative powers when it comes to wonderkids but you do wonder if the conveyor belt stops at some stage. Keep an eye on them early doors.

Leeds Leeds Leeds

Leeds add German midfielder Anton Stach to their ranks in what has been a busy summer of transfer activity. But does that mean it has been a good summer of transfer activity under manager Daniel Farke?

He follows Sebastiaan Bornauw, Jaka Bijol, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Lukas Nmecha and Sean Longstaff in joining manager Farke's squad for the 2025-26 campaign but are they the names that will keep a team in the Premier League.

I mean it is hard to say but if you were a Leeds supporter would this news and that of Patrick Bamford in exile be enough to get your pulses racing before a relegation battle?

Whisper quietly but I actually prefer the business that Sunderland have been doing.

Admin

Right, that’s the end of issue 17 as we edge closer to a new season.

If you liked issue 17, tell a friend. If you didn’t like issue 17, don’t.

Also, continual feedback is certainly going to help drive this forward.

Feel free to email me to tell me what you like and what you did not.

[email protected]

Issue 18 will be out on Friday July 25th.

Thanks for reading

Dan