Issue 16 - Mbuemo Moving On

Mbeumo, Nørgaard and Frank out. Wissa next? Brentford’s hive is emptying fast.
Championship chaos brews below. Snoop Dogg buys in. Shrimpers shut out.
And the Premier League trapdoor is starting to creak.

Let’s filter the fallout.

Brentford Shedding Stars

Although negotiations begun last month, the movement of Bryan Mbuemo has been recorded at a snail’s pace since. Talk of a medical happening “this week” has been reported five or six times since the initial whispers. He must be the fittest player in the league.

However, we finally have movement regarding the Cameroon international and although it is finally good news for Manchester United - even if the £65m transfer fee is bordering on eye-watering, it is further bad news for Brentford.

Not only have they had Thomas Frank plucked by Spurs but they have also recently said goodbye to midfielder Christian Norgaard, add Mbeumo’s departure to the mix and there are reasons to be fearful in this pocket of West London.

Two key operators moved on, the man who oversaw it all being tempted by the bright lights of Champions League football. Add the uncertainity that comes with Keith Andrews’ replacement as manager and the former Irish international has a big job on his hands.

A big job that could be even bigger if you believe the latest phase of Newcastle’s striker recruitment and as predicted in the previous article, they and Liverpool will have to share the resource of Alexander Isak and Hugo Ekitike between them.

However, that does not stop Newcastle from eyeing up additional firepower and with Eddie Howe and his recruitment team working down their shopping list, the next target is believed to be Brentford’s Yoan Wissa.

In the past, Brentford have shown they have regenerative powers when they lose key players. Said Benhrama, Ollie Watkins and Ivan Toney have all moved on and the Bees have lost nothing in the way of their sting.

This Summer it all feels a bit different. The change feels to sudden to absorb the departure of not just a key forward but his partner and the fulcrum of their midfield at the same time.

Fourth Worst Please

With departures confirmed, in the process and reported, it is very easy to fear for Brentford’s survival this season but if we look at the Premier League over the past couple of seasons, they may have a get out clause.

A clause that comes with promoted teams being so off the pace when they reach the promised land. The last two campaigns have seen the term of ‘yo-yo club’ lived up to its fullest, what price it happens for a third successive season.

As always, bookmaker odds can give us a steer as to the appetite for promoted clubs keeping their heads above water and at current odds, the relegation market is as follows:

Sunderland 1.33
Burnley 1.36
Leeds 1.90
—————————————
Wolves 4.33
Brentford 4.50

Looking at these odds, the bookmakers have no confidence in the next trio of new arrivals and are of the belief that once again, what goes up most also end up going down in May 2026.

But the bookmakers are not always right and if you are looking for a value bet in this market, Brentford at 4.50 (7/2 in fraction odds) seems a good price as of today as Mbuemo is still a Bees player for now and Wissa has not had his turned….yet.

If these two are both playing for some form of United in the next few weeks, then do not be surprised to see that price of 4.50 shoot down - if that is the case, the value out of the market is gone.

As always, there is something else to consider and that is the manager himself. He feeling is that this is the wrong move for Brentford, but their data usually gives them the edge over the counterparts.

Not only that, but if they do get off to an awful start, they will not afford Andrews loyalty just out of kindness and compassion. The decision to pull the trigger is there before Christmas should they need it.

So the bet is not whether you see Keith Andrews taking Brentford to the Championship. It is more a case of are they going to struggle regardless of who is in charge after so many key players have moved on.

It only needs one promoted club to beat pre-season expectations and Brentford along with Wolves and West Ham may start to get a little jittery. Those pressure rankings will be rather interesing in the first few weeks of the season.

The Second Tier

Staying on the topic of the chasm between two divisions, it is arguably the right time to shine a light on those clubs who hope to climb out of the EFL Championship at the end of the season.

A core of 17 Premier League teams have been supplemented by six more in rotation over the past few years. Will the trio of Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton now return at the first time of asking?

Once again, a look at bookmaker odds will give us a steer and when you look at the Top 2 finish market - the current prices are as follows:

Ipswich 3.00
Southampton 3.50
Birmingham 4.33
Sheffield United 4.33
Coventry 7.00
Leicester 7.00

According to these odds this would be the makeup of your two automatic promotion places and the play offs and although Ipswich and Southampton are fancied to bounce straight back, the same cannot be said for Leicester.

The appointment of Marti Cienfuentes to the King Power Stadium has not really got pulses racing. Add the potential points deduction and the task in hand for the Foxes is greater than that of the Tractor Boys and the Saints.

Which leads us to Birmingham and their upward mobility. Can they like Ipswich record two successive promotions from League One through to the Premier League? With the money now sloshing around the club, you would not put it past them.

With they and Wrexham looking to continue their progress up the pyramid, the arrival in the Championship will only make life tougher for the likes of Sheffield United, Coventry and Watford to name but a few.

Three clubs that have Premier League aspirations but now required to set up two more places at the Championship’s top table. If you think the race for automatic promotion is going to be tough, the quest for the playoffs is going to be a war of attriton.

Breaking The Cycle

Regardless of the three clubs that do earn the winning lottery ticket, it will be vitally important to see who comes down and although I have mapped out my fears for Brentford, my fears for the pyramid as a whole are far greater.

Only because if Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland do return to the Championship and make it third successive season where promoted clubs have gone straight back down, the wider message is a fractuous one.

It may not be a closed shop in format but it may as well be one. 17 permanent members, three guest entries every season - relegation in place but those permanent members knowing that they are most likely safe.

Suggestions of pulling up the trapdoor being pulled up by American owners have always seen supporters cry foul. Unfortunately, we are already there without the hatch being bolted for good.

Finding Any Solution

So it begs the question as to what solution can be found. The obvious one is wealth distribution but why would the rich want to give up their share of such a financial pie - turkey’s voting for Christmas and all that.

Another solution may be to reduce the Premier League to 18 clubs and force through jeopardy that way. Still operating with three up and three down but trimming the fat to regnerate the relegation battles.

Again, there would be a sense of turkey’s voting for Christmas but a league is only as good as the jeopardy it can create and with people tuning out of the Premier League last season because of it, this may be the way forward.

Especially as those clubs in Europe would then play four less games in the league and this would further help their cause. The players would probably be for it as well due to their load being lessened due to 34 games instead of 38.

You could spice it up further and have the team that finishes 16th in the Premier League (third bottom) enter the EFL Championship playoffs (3rd to 5th). Failure to win that and they go down as well.

It is not something that will happen in the next 12 months but if we do get nine promoted clubs out of nine going straight back down, something will eventually have to give somewhere.

The Filter Five

Five more football Sambuca shots over the weekend.

Paying The Penalty

It would be incredibly easy to punch down on Women’s football after what was displayed on Thursday night between England and Sweden from 12 yards but will refrain from being any more critical than has already been.

A penalty shootout so bad in quality, that the comedy of errors quickly distilled any nerves viewers may have had.

The good, the bad and the incredibly ugly when it really mattered and with Sarina Wiegman’s Lionesses moving on to the last four, there may have to be additional penalty practice before their meeting with Italy.

Walker-Peters At West Ham

Southampton’s bid at bouncing back into the Premier League may have taken a slight dent with the news that Kyle Walker-Peters is set to move to West Ham. One of the few players that came out of last season with any credit, he was always going to be one someone’s radar.

A radar that many expected to be Tottenham’s and with a return for KWP helping out their homegrown quota for both the Premier League and Champions League, it did seem logical.

However, such a bid never materialised and instead the 28-year-old is set for a stint at the London Stadium.

Snoop Doggy Swan

Celebrity investors are certainly in vogue within English football and with Ryan Reynolds and Rob Mac (his name change, not mine) being considered as the trailblazers many of their peers now want in on the act.

Tom Brady at Birmingham and JJ Watt at Burnley have flown the flag for the NFL but what about the world of Hip Hop? Eminem in at Fulham? Lil Wayne in at Liverpool? No but there is Snoop Dogg at Swansea.

Never did I think that I would be writing that Luka Modric and Snoop Dogg would be part of the same ownership group at Swansea City but then again 2025 has been an incredibly strange year.

Shrimpers Short Shrift

The ownership saga at Morecambe is still yet to be resolved. Jason Whittingham needlessly still holds the keys at the club, fans are currently not welcome at pre-season friendlies.

It really is a sorry state of affairs and especially when it looked as if a sale was set to be complete at the start of July. If there was a league table for press statements, Morecambe would be flying right now. As it is, they may not be in any league at all.

Pure Fantasy Football

For those who take an interest in Fantasy Premier League, there is a new development for the 2025/26 season and one that finally shines a light on defenders and defensive midfielders after years in the dark.

From the new camapign, they will now be rewarded with points for defensive actions. Should they record a minimum of 10 blocks, clearances and tackles, they will be awarded two points.

The Fantasy game has gone.

Admin

Right, that’s the end of issue 16 as we edge closer to a new season.

If you liked issue 16, tell a friend. If you didn’t like issue 16, don’t.

Also, continual feedback is certainly going to help drive this forward.

Feel free to email me to tell me what you like and what you did not.

[email protected]

Issue 17 will be out on Tuesday July 22nd.

Thanks for reading

Dan