Drama on both sides of Hadrian’s Wall in the past seven days. A lot of it connected to VAR. A final day decider awaits in Scotland. There is the small matter of the FA Cup final and a considerable amount of Premier League action. Brace yourself. Issue 98. Go.

One Final Push

Hearts had one hand on the Scottish Premiership title on Wednesday.

Hearts thought they had done enough.

A 3-0 win at home to Falkirk should have left Derek McInnes’ side travelling to Celtic Park knowing they could even afford a two-goal defeat and still win the Scottish Premiership title.

Then Fir Park exploded.

In the 99th minute, Celtic were handed a hugely controversial penalty after a lengthy VAR review involving Auston Trusty and a handball decision that will be argued about for years.

Kelechi Iheanacho converted. Chaos followed.

The immediate reaction from Hearts fans and plenty connected to Rangers was predictable. Conspiracy. Favouritism. The league protecting Celtic.

Personally, I don’t buy the tinfoil hat argument but bad decisions do not need conspiracies behind them to completely reshape title races.

Fir Park did not have the same level of camera coverage or angles usually associated with major VAR calls and that only adds to the sense of confusion around the decision. Was there enough evidence to award the penalty? That debate is now unavoidable.

What is unavoidable, though, is the magnitude of Saturday’s finale.

The Final Countdown

This title race has gone beyond Scottish football. The drama, volatility and sheer theatre of it has dragged in neutrals from everywhere and most of them will now be backing Hearts.

The problem for Hearts is that Celtic and Martin O'Neill have lived through these moments before. Hearts now have to recover from the emotional punch of believing the title was almost theirs before it was ripped away in stoppage time.

Do they still have enough left for one final fight? Or have the Bhoys just completed the psychological turning point of the season?

If you are looking for the ideal curtain raiser before the FA Cup final at Wembley this will undoubtedly be the one. All eyes on Celtic Park this Saturday lunchtime. The champion will be decided at around 2:30 tomorrow afternoon.

Rewind The Tapes

More VAR errors recorded in the Premier League

VAR controversy has deepened this season, with the Premier League’s Key Match Incidents panel confirming 23 errors so far. That marks a 35% rise on last season at the same stage, although still below the 30 recorded in 2023-24.

At the highest profile end of the campaign, VAR has still played its part, most notably stepping in to rule out West Ham’s equaliser against Arsenal last Sunday.

But the wider picture is increasingly damaging, with an overall rise in mistakes only strengthening the argument from those who believe VAR should be scrapped entirely.

The focus is no longer on isolated incidents but on consistency and confidence in the system itself.

Questions are being asked about whether referees are becoming too dependent on technology, or whether the technology is amplifying scrutiny to an unsustainable level.

Referee Rob Jones has once again been involved in a key error - a penalty awarded to Bournemouth in the 29th minute of their 3-0 home win over Crystal Palace should have been overturned.

Which means he is now emerging as one of the officials most frequently associated with VAR interventions gone wrong. That raises a broader question about accountability.

Should officials like him be stood down, or is the issue more structural than individual?

There is also a longer memory at play. Earlier in the year, the FA Cup tie between Aston Villa and Newcastle was played without VAR, and referee Chris Kavanagh made several high-profile mistakes that might otherwise have been corrected.

Without technology, the criticism was immediate and severe. Now the reverse question is emerging. Are referees leaning on VAR as a safety net, only for that safety net to be fraying under pressure?

And crucially, is the growing error count a sign of worsening performance, or simply a product of harsher scrutiny and higher expectations?

The numbers may be rising, but the debate is whether they reflect reality, or whether the weight of VAR itself is beginning to crush the very officials it was designed to support.

Hide The Binoculars

Spy Gate Rumbles On

As far as the EFL are concerned, Southampton beating Middlesbrough in the Championship play-off semi-finals is the worst thing that could have happened.

For the Saints themselves, the worst could still be yet to come as the row over ‘Spy Gate’ continues further.

Hull booking their place in the Wembley showpiece final with a 2-0 win over Millwall the night before. The Tigers not quite sure if Saturday’s match will take place and more importantly, who they will be facing.

Because of Southampton’s extra-time win over Middlesbrough on Tuesday, the EFL now have a difficult decision to make. Do they boot the South Coast outfit out for spying, do they give them a financial penalty or a points deduction for next season.

They could of course hand Southampton all three but whatever the punishment, the tight turnaround before Saturday’s scheduled final is already chaotic and if the penalty amounts to more than a slap on the wrist, there will be grounds for an appeal.

An appeal that would surely have to push back the Championship play-off final but then there is the small matter of the World Cup, there is also the small matter of Middlesbrough still training in the meantime. How this one unfolds? Who knows!

The Cup Final

Manchester City look to complete a domestic cup double

Manchester City made light work of Crystal Palace on Wednesday after manager Pep Guardiola made six changes to the side that got the better of Brentford just days before. The Premier League title race extended for another few days. Now all eyes on Wembley.

With the League Cup already in City’s grasp, capturing the FA Cup would be the second leg of the treble. Can two trophies become three next Sunday? First, they need to get past a Chelsea side that is still searching for a route into Europe next season.

A route that could be completed on Saturday with their first FA Cup success since 2018 and after losing each of the last three finals that they have contested (2020, 2021, 2022) they will be keen to put their Wembley hoodoo behind them.

Admittedly the combination of teams in this season’s FA Cup final has not got the pulses racing. Two big six outfits together never really gets the juices flowing but at least it kicks off at traditional time of 3pm. Proper kickoff time, none of this 5.15pm nonsense.

Eight Quick Exercises

A sprint look at the weekend’s Premier League action

Aston Villa vs Liverpool

This one is going on while I write the newsletter - where does this Friday night keep coming from?

Neither Aston Villa nror Liverpool can relax too much in their bid to make sure they finish in the top five. The former should rest as many as possible before the Europa League, the latter will surely aim to take all three if that is the case.

Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest

After sleepwalking to a point at Sunderland last weekend, Manchester United should look to get back on the winning trail on Sunday but truth be told they really don’t need to. A single point would confirm third place in the table. A draw at Villa Park on Friday will do the job for Michael Carrick’s men.

As for Nottingham Forest, there is nothing left to play for. Safe from the threat of relegation. No Europa League final to look forward. Obvious disappointment at the latter but considering they are operating under their fourth manager this season, the job that Vitor Pereira has carried out at the City Ground has been a rather positive one.

Wolves vs Fulham

Rob Edwards gave a rallying cry in midweek at a Wolves fans forum, asking the supporters to get behind the team. Words that won’t carry any weight this season but may do as they go into next. The Molineux men need to give the men and women who pay their hard earned money something to hold onto. Offer that and they’ll get something back in return.

The only thing that Wolves are largely offering these days are points to the opponents and Fulham will hope that they can be the next recipients of all three. The Cottagers handed all three to Bournemouth last weekend and will be keen to put back-to-back defeats behind them at the expense of the league’s basement outfit.

Brentford vs Crystal Palace

Just one win in six for Brentford but they are still in the bracket of teams eyeing up a sixth-place finish at the end of the season. Have Keith Andrews’ men run out of gas or is there still a last drop of fuel left to get themselves over any kind of European line. To be left behind from this position would be rather tough for the Bees but there is still work to do.

Work that sees Crystal Palace visit their crosstown rivals and after suffering a comfortable defeat to Manchester City in midweek, there is no doubt that Premier League duties are far from the top when it comes to importance in the final two weeks of the season. Brentford should be aiming to sting the Eagles when they visit the GTech on Sunday.

Everton vs Sunderland

Just two points from the last 15 on offer for Everton, the prospect of European football is fading but still just there in the distance. A win for Manchester City in the cup final would help the Toffees and many other teams out. A win for David Moyes’ men is not a bad back-up plan as they prepare for the visit of Sunderland.

The Black Cats have failed to win any of their last four, picking up two points from the last 12. Truth be told, these are two teams who look like they have pulled out the deckchairs from the shed and although they are looking in the holiday brochures, the prospect of Europe may have to wait for another 12 months.

Leeds vs Brighton

It is now seven league games unbeaten for Leeds and although they have nothing left to play for themselves, Daniel Farke’s men could still serve as kingmakers in both the European and relegation battles. How much appetite do they have in terms of playing the role of spoiler or do they now relax knowing that their work for the season is done.

Sunday sees them play host to a Brighton side that sit two points behind Bournemouth in the race for sixth and with the Seagulls playing before the Cherries in this gameweek, they have the perfect opportunity to leapfrog them. A 3-0 win over Wolves last time around but their last away outing was their 3-1 loss at Newcastle.

Newcastle vs West Ham

The one that everyone seems to be keeping an eye on. Have Newcastle and West Ham made some secret alliance in a bid to dunk out a big six member of the Premier League? If you believe social media (you never should) then this seems to be the case. Then again, this is the Magpies’ last home game of the season and they could do with a flourish.

They need a flourish but West Ham need a win, should they manage to capture all three points on Tyneside they will place Tottenham in the relegation zone before their visit to Chelsea on Tuesday night. Add a Hammers side that will be keen to funnel Sunday’s anger into something positive and the battle to avoid the drop could unravel another huge twist.

Arsenal vs Burnley

Surely nothing can go wrong here. Arsenal just need to keep winning and eventually Manchester City will run out of road. They may have made heavy going over their win over West Ham last week but they got the job done in the end. It was not pretty but there is no doubt that manager Mikel Arteta will accept the same blueprint on Monday night.

A blueprint that has Burnley central to its plans and although their relegation is long since confirmed, they certainly showed some fight against Aston Villa last Sunday. Will Michael Jackson’s men be Smooth Criminals at the start of next week by snatching a share of the points or will they Beat It and bow out quietly as Arsenal turn the screw in the title race?

The Filter Five

Five news sprints up and down the touchline

Carrick On A Permo

Michael Carrick is supposedly moving one step closer to getting the Manchester United job on a permanent basis. The club higher ups have recommended he gets the gig full time. contract talks believed to be getting underway.

How will the club and more importantly, the manager deal with all those extra games next season? This will be the true litmus test as to how Carrick operates at the Theatre of Dreams.

Coleman Gone

Everton have announced that Seamus Coleman will be leaving at the club at the end of the season. The Irish international defender has made 372 appearances for the Merseyside outfit in his 17 years at the club. Arguably the Premier League’s pound for pound best ever signing.

Championship Budget Plans

Championship clubs have voted in favour of moving to a new financial framework of Squad Cost Rules (SCR) from next season. This measure brings it a lot closer to how the Premier League operates and may go someway towards the second tier being a financial black hole.

So many club owners go for broke in a bid to earn Premier League riches, only three clubs turned a profit last season. Something had to come in to stop more Leicesters and Sheffield Wednesdays. Common sense seemingly prevailing.

Another Cherry Departing

Marcos Senesi has announced he is leaving Bournemouth at the end of the season. His departure will be another test of the Cherries regenerative powers. Can they keep finding replacements? Will the 29-year-old make his way over to Tottenham (if they stay up that is)

Fantasy Stuff

I forgot to do my team. Did you?

Admin

Right, that’s the end of issue 98 as word continues to spread around the football world.

This isn’t a newsletter that follows the crowd. It sets the lens through which you see the game and more than 210 subscribers are now viewing it through that lens.

If you’re serious about understanding football, staying ahead of the stories, and cutting through the noise, keep this in your inbox - send it to your friend’s inbox as well.

Issue 99 drops Tuesday, I’ll be back with another round of insight, analysis and trends that matter. Any feedback or comments on this issue, contact me below:


Follow me on Twitter (x) - https://x.com/dantracey1983

Follow me on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/dantracey/ 

Reply

Avatar

or to participate

Keep Reading