The Premier League title race takes another twist. There’s time for one more, but will it take place? Nobody has the answer just yet, Manchester City will be looking for answers after their Monday on Merseyside. That and other clubs are gaming the system to mixed degrees of success. Let’s get into it. Issue 95. Go.

This is all written before their semi-final second leg with Atletico Madrid

I have lost count of how many pivotal weekends we have had in this season’s edition of the Premier League. Not that it really matters, one way or another, the current weekend is always more pivotal than the last.

The only count that really matters is the fact that Arsenal are now five points clear at the top of the Premier League table having played a game more than Manchester City - an equation that puts the trophy back in their hands after Monday’s plot twist.

Then again, it is not just the fact that City had to make do with a share of the points at Hill Dickenson, it is the manner in which the Gunners got the better of Fulham on Saturday evening.

Many felt that if Arsenal could win at home after their previous midweek exploits in Madrid, then that would be the final true hurdle for Mikel Arteta and his players to deal with on a domestic front.

With the way they breezed past Fulham in the opening 45 minutes at the Emirates, it was not a hurdle at all. The tension that you could feel through your TV after they squeezed past Newcastle seven days before, released into the atmosphere against the Cottagers.

Arsenal setting the tempo with their comfortable win on Saturday, piling the pressure on the shoulders of Manchester City and although playing second in the title race schedule should not be an issue, a Monday night fixture always adds further intrigue.

Maybe it is the benefit of the hindsight but there was almost a feeling that Arsenal’s 48-hour window was always going to be big for City to deal with. No ability for the Etihad outfit to answer back in the shortest time period available.

Instead, Arsenal’s six-point gap was allowed to marinate for just that little bit longer, then City overcooked things when their own three points were baking nicely in the oven.

Thirteen minutes of madness as Everton scored three goals in such a short space of time. Marc Guehi’s arrival in the blue half of Manchester has been a definite boost to their title hopes but that one single action may have undone all his hard work.

City already nervy moments before when Gianluigi Donnaruma was called into action to foil Iliman Ndiaye in a one on one situation, the next situation for the Italian was to pick the ball out of the net.

Thierno Barry in an offside position but all his Christmasses coming at once after the loose pass from Guehi played the Everton forward onside. Everton now level after wiping out Jeremy Doku’s first-half strike, the Belgian and his teammates now in a sticky situation.

1-1 but still 22 minutes for Pep Guardiola’s cabal of stars to find a winner. That winning position was then two goals further back by the time Jake O’Brien headed home and Barry netted his second from close range.

If there is to be any redeeming feature from City’s performance, it is the way they managed to salvage something. Is that the point that eventually gets them over the line?

When you look at the fixtures that Arsenal have left remaining, you would think probably not. The damage already done from a challenging perspective, the damage for the champions elect can only be self-inflicted from here on in.

Especially when you look at it from a betting probability perspective:

An 83.3% probability that Arsenal go on to win the title from here. Even if you removed the 5% overround that the bookmakers add to make sure it is a profitable venture to run, that probability would only drop to 80.75%

A four/fifths chance to come out on top. Points on the board, City showing already that extra games are the burden they could do without. The best chance they seemingly have now is by taking it to the last day, but a 19.25% chance is not as big as they’d like.

Is it the Gunners for you, or do you think City can still fight back from here?

Aston Villa made seven changes from the team that lost to Nottingham Forest in the Europa League semi-final first leg.

Nottingham Forest boss Vitor Pereira made eight changes with Thursday's Europa League semi-final second leg against Aston Villa in mind.

A decision that backfired if you are Unai Emery

A masterstroke if you are Vitor Pereira

Aston Villa losing 2-1 at home to Tottenham on Sunday

Nottingham Forest winning 3-1 at Chelsea a day later

The result obviously smarting for Villa in their bid to make sure they can qualify for the Champions League but one that was felt with more anguish in East London. West Ham fans complaining about the lack of integrity when it comes to making so many changes.

Why do West Ham supporters take so much umbrage when it comes to what happens in the West Midlands at the weekend. In their eyes, Unai Emery’s ‘b team’ rolled over and let their bellies get tickled by Tottenham.

A huge weekend at both ends of the Premier League table, Tottenham arguably turning in their best performance of the season so far - albeit they are working from a considerably low base.

Would Roberto De Zerbi’s side have got the better of Villa if the Europa League semi-finalists had played a full strength side. Maybe, maybe not. Truth be told, we will never know the answer to that.

We can add some more conjecture though and the fact that West Ham lost at Brentford would certainly added more urgency to a Spurs side that picked up a win at Wolves the weekend before.

Had West Ham won at the GTech Community Stadium, it would have had no bearing on how Villa were to line up against Spurs. At the end of the day, the Hammers had survival in their own destiny before Saturday, that asset now moving across the capital.

Villa perhaps with the luxury of being able to rest players considering there is still a healthy enough buffer between fifth and the chasing pack - Sunday’s game serving as a mere inconvenience before their Europa League second leg.

They thought they could game the weekend but got their fingers burnt.

Forest on the other hand were even more ballsy, Spurs win giving them every reason to keep one eye over their shoulder. You would not blame Vitor Pereira for going ‘strong’ at Stamford Bridge.

Turns out there was no need to blame him at all. Eight changes, the support act making light work of a rather hapless Chelsea side. Not safe from relegation and pulling off a win with a second string side. Ballsy.

Ballsy but also a reflection of just how poor this Chelsea side are right now. Be it a man called Liam or a man called Calum. They cannot get the club on a winning front when it comes to league action. That’s now six successive league defeats in the record books.

Ultimately, both Villa and Forest have the right to make as many changes as they like. I won’t lie, I (as a Tottenham fan) have been a massive beneficiary of the former’s, but you can only play what is in front of you.

Tottenham played like a team possessed or should that be a team that looked like a curse had been lifted. The first 25 minutes could have seen them three goals up, even the sight of them being two goals clear felt like some form of fever dream.

The only dream now is survival at the end of the season and now it feels like more of a reality. The reality now for West Ham is that they host Arsenal at the weekend, a result that is likely going to define what shakes out at both the top and bottom of the table.

Arsenal pull two wins clear at the top. The Gunners have won 64% of their last 100 league matches.

While Chelsea’s six successive defeats is leaving them in danger of being swallowed up by Newcastle in terms of win ranks - that could be the only real battle left in the top six

Tottenham move up to 32 wins out of 100. More importantly, their loss ratio has decreased to 49%. They are no longer losing one out of two Premier League games in this sample.

There is a concentrated middle of 36 wins for Brentford, Nottingham Forest, Brighton - interesting that two of these three could be playing in the Champions League next season.

Sunderland are still the biggest success story when comparing their league position to win rankings. 12th in the table but only 26 wins from the last 100.

Next season will see Coventry and Ipswich enter the data sample - who else will join them after winning the Championship playoffs?

Leeds’ late season flourish continues as they made very light work of an already relegated Burnley on Friday night. If you looked at the Premier League form table (last six matches), the Elland Road outfit find themselves fourth with 12 points. This undoubtedly has been the run that has kept their heads above water. Talk about good timing.

As for Burnley, be it Scott Parker or Michael Jackson, the Clarets were still BAD. By comparison, they have picked up a single point from the same six-game sample. The only team propping up the Turf Moor outfit are Chelsea. That’s how much their season has fizzled out. Only another three weeks to go thankfully.

A point for Wolves on Saturday, closing the gap to Burnley to just two. A point celebrated perhaps? Not by some portions of the Molineux fanbase as boos rang out at full time in the direction of Rob Edwards. General frustration or something deeper? Be interesting to see or hear whether those boos continue at the start of next season.

Sunderland on the other hand will probably have to consider it as a solid point in the end. Dan Ballard’s red card for a hair pull (they really are in fashion at the moment aren’t they) changing the complexion of the game. Two points dropped here probably ends any hopes of European football next season.

Whereas a win for Newcastle is probably too little too late when it comes to the Magpies’ own hopes of continental competition next season. A first success in five for Eddie Howe and on the other side of the weekend, the board have confirmed he will be in charge at the start of next season. That said, he won’t get away with a bottom half position in the autumn. A big few months await.

As for Brighton, they should have got something out of the game after going 2-0 down. Yankuba Minteh’s effort being blazed over the bar from close range the pivotal moment late on and especially as Harvey Barnes made it 3-1 moments later. A dent in terms of maybe sneaking into the Champions League but Europe still looks on for the Seagulls.

The Champions League welcomes back Manchester United next season after the Red Devils got the better of local rivals Liverpool on Sunday. Michael Carrick’s men made it difficult for themselves after racing into a 2-0 lead but you cannot argue with the character they showed in order to get over the line. Was this the final audition in terms of naming a permanent manager?

As for Liverpool, not only did they let a point slip out of their hands after getting back into the game but they also gave United their third successive league win in a row and with United having Sunderland and Nottingham Forest to face, I think that bloke is finally getting his haircut. Cheers, Liverpool ruined it for everyone.

Bournemouth’s unbeaten streak in the Premier League extends to 15 after an emphatic win over Crystal Palace on Monday. A win that takes Andoni Iraola’s men to sixth in the table. If Aston Villa finish fifth and win the Europa League, the Cherries will be playing Champions League football next season.

As for Crystal Palace, they also made wholesale changes before their Conference League second leg on Thursday. Nobody really made anything of Oliver Glasner’s decision because it is the logical thing to do. Funny how, doing the same thing can lead to different outcomes.

Hearts retain their three-point lead in the Scottish Premiership after beating Rangers 2-1 on Monday. Danny Rohl’s side arguably out of the title race now but could still be the kingmakers if they foil Celtic at the weekend. The enemy of my enemy is my friend and all that.

Surely Morgan Gibbs-White is on the World Cup plane for England now. Best possible form to be in right now. If he leads Nottingham Forest to the Europa League, he may even start the Three Lions’ first group game.

Who would be the second outfit in this season’s Champions League final. If the second leg is anything like the first, we are going to be in for a real treat on Wednesday.

There are new owners at Hillsborough as Sheffield Wednesday’s future seems rosier going into next season. Especially as the EFL have waived a further 15-point deduction in League One. Three cheers for common sense!

After desperately falling short at home to York, Rochdale get their shot at redemption this weekend as they meet Boreham Wood in the National League play-off final. Will they be jubilant second time around or will they suffer even more despair?

Right, that’s the end of issue 95 as word continues to spread around the football world.

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Issue 96 drops Friday, I’ll be back with another round of insight, analysis and trends that matter. Any feedback or comments on this issue, contact me below:

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