Bournemouth needed a new manager. They got a new manager rather quickly. Will Marco Rose have a thorny time in the Premier League? I have some data that may back this up. Or not. Plus Manchester City edge closer to the title again. Issue 91. Go.

As referenced above, Marco Rose has agreed to be the new Bournemouth manager when Andoni Iraola calls time on his Vitality Stadium stint at the end of this season. A shrewd move by the Bournemouth board, maybe also a shrewd move by their outgoing boss.

Why is it also shrewd timing from an Iraola perspective? Because as he stated himself, the Cherries may have run out of road.

This is not a reflection on the club, it is not a reflection on the soon to be new Bournemouth boss, it is a reflection of how hard it is to constantly improve your position in the Premier League.

Although the campaign has not finished just yet, it does offer something of an indication as to the upward trajectory of a handful of clubs. Four clubs that will not have many of their fans complaining about their performances this season.

They are the quartet of:

All in the mix for European football next season, all in a position to improve on their league finish of last season. Improvement on how they fared in 2024/25, which in itself is improvement on how they fared in the 2023/24 Premier League campaign.

Successive seasons where you move up the Premier League table is not to be sniffed at. Then again, it could also be feared at the same time. Hit back-to-back improvements and there is every chance you fall into the progress trap.

A 3-year improvement cycle = a club improving league position in two consecutive seasons after an initial baseline season

Let me illustrate this to bring the concept to life:

As we can see the top three teams in this table are all improving year on year across a three-season cycle - I have also included Brighton for the purpose of this analysis because they are very close to achieving the same should they finish 7th or higher this season.

You may look at this and think what is the problem? The problem is that regression has a tendency to kick in once you have bettered yourself twice over.

23 clubs have recorded this exact pattern, improving in back-to-back seasons, then dropping off across a total 42 total instances since 1992.

The standout clubs:

A few other observations worth noting:

Teams outperform their wage bill or squad depth for a period. That gap is hard to maintain once competitors adjust.

What works in Year 2–3 becomes analysed, copied, and countered by Year 4.

European qualification, deeper cup runs, and higher expectations stretch squads that weren’t originally built for it.

Success raises prices. The same recruitment model that built the rise becomes less efficient once a club is “known” in the market.

If we look at defending champions Liverpool, there are a curious case because they hit their peak efficiency year under a new manager but he has failed to hit the same heights when fully given Anfield’s tactical keys to himself.

Was their drop off already baked in due to what we now know? Or is this a bad season for different reasons?

While it is a bad season that the quartet of Bournemouth, Brentford, Brighton and Everton will want to avoid next time around but if they all manage to finish 2025/26 better than how they did 2024/25, they may have to prepare themselves for a drop in form.

The Premier League does not punish improvement. It compresses it.

The more a club climbs, the more its next step depends not on repeating what worked but on evolving beyond it. That is why consecutive seasons of progress are rare.

Not because improvement is unstable. But because stability itself becomes harder the higher you go. Everyone wants progress, but too much too soon can send you in the wrong direction.

Another draw for Brentford, maybe they are already aware of upward mobility can do for you and are actively trying not to progress further? No, I think that is unlikely to be the case but five draws in a row must be frustrating when the other West London Premier League outfit cannot buy a win right now. Unbeaten in six but not enough edge to really make it count.

As for opponents Fulham, that point means they stay in the bottom half of the Premier League. Still in range for Europe - but then again, who isn’t? Marco Silva’s men also lacking any real edge. Someone from this group of teams has to miss out on the continent next season, I think Fulham may end up being one of them. Great save from Bernd Leno though.

What a week for Leeds as they take another massive step towards survival. The Elland Road outfit now on 39 points after a comfortable win over Wolves - more importantly they find themselves eight points clear of the drop zone. Four games unbeaten, back-to-back wins, talk about finding form at just the right time.

As for Wolves, relegation to the Championship is finally confirmed after what has been a miserable season at Molineux. Reports of fights in the dressing room after their loss to Leeds. A lot of players will have to be moved on for their upcoming promotion bid, truth be told it will be for the best as this outfit has not been Premier League standard for some time.

Is that Howe for now? I imagine Eddie will see out the season but after a third successive Premier League defeat it is getting difficult to make a case for him to still be in charge of the Magpies next season. That defeat means they stay 14th in the Premier League table, if they want European football next season, they need to go on a late season run of form.

As for Bournemouth, no signs of downing tools after Andoni Iraola’s announcement. You would have not noticed the difference when looking at how the Cherries performed on Saturday. A second successive league win (both on the road), it is now 13 games without defeat. They’ve only lost seven league games all season, the joint-third lowest figure in the division.

So close to a win but even a draw does not really help Tottenham right now. The manner in which they were foiled by Brighton on Saturday has got to hurt, the celebrations after Xavi Simons’ finish perhaps too early - but when you have had so little in the way of joy this season, it is hard not to get caught up in what is playing out in front of you.

Credit to Brighton as they managed to get themselves back in the game not once but twice as they extended their unbeaten run to four league matches. However, it could also be construed as two points dropped in North London. Had the Seagulls come out on top in N17 they would have ended the weekend in sixth. Fine margins and all that.

Chelsea fall to a fourth successive league defeat, they somehow manage to avoid falling down the Premier League table. Then again, what use is sixth when the gap between Liverpool and themselves has only got wider. Manager Liam Rosenior bemoaning more bad luck, at this level you have to make your own and the Blues have had none lately.

As for Manchester United, not the perfect performance but certainly the perfect result after losing to Leeds on Monday night. Michael Carrick’s men keeping hold of third place for another week, still no news on whether the interim manager keeps his job on a permanent basis.

A thriller at the Villa as Unai Emery’s men hard work of getting the better of Sunderland. 3-1 up at one stage, then 3-3 within the space of 60 seconds. Were it not for the outstretched hand of Emi Martinez, it could have been 3-4 to the Black Cats. Not to be but it was to be for Tammy Abraham after he put his body on the line for the winner. How important could that goal be at the end of the season?

As for Sunderland, they also missed out on the opportunity to move up to sixth after their reverse in the West Midlands. Frustration not to get at least a point after such a spirited comeback but I think manager Regis Le Bris will be able to find some positives - although maybe not from a defensive perspective.

The first Merseyside Derby at Hill Dickinson Stadium, a similar outcome to those at Goodison Park. Everton losing to Liverpool by virtue of an injury time winner, they must be sick of the sight of the fourth official’s number board. All that added time, all that added pressure, they once again failed to keep their local neighbours at bay.

The perfect combination of results for Liverpool, two of their older guard getting on the scoresheet. Both Mo Salah and Virgil van Dijk have come under criticism as of late, no criticism for either party on Sunday. Also praise needs to go to Cody Gakpo after his inch--perfect assit for the Reds’ opener. Not a better pass made all weekend in my opinion.

Morgan Gibbs-White would have been in a Tottenham shirt had he not been held ‘hostage’ by Nottingham Forest owner Evangelos Maranakis last summer. So of course, it was he who made Spurs’ relegation woes worse after scoring a sensational second treble against Burnley on Sunday.

The Clarets taking the lead before the break but offering nothing after the interval. Truth be told, they have offered nothing to this Premier League season. Defeat to Manchester City in midweek and they will be joining Wolves as confirmed members of the 2026/27 EFL Championship. Do they keep Scott Parker in charge for their next promotion bid?

A heavyweight clash that did actually live up to the hype. Manchester City and Arsenal went toe-to-toe at the Etihad on Sunday, it generated an excellent viewing spectacle for those watching with keen interest. Rayan Cherki had Arsenal on strings, Erling Haaland’s game no longer just a scoring machine, but offering everything to the City cause.

The gap at the top down to three points, Arsenal need to lick their wounds as quick as possible. Is this defeat part of the same rut or just a case of losing to the better team on the day? It all depends on how they fare against Newcastle on Saturday. The margin for error has shrunk to zero, whoever blinks first could hand the title to the other.

Crystal Palace now going through the Premier League motions between now and the end of the season and when you consider that they still have European exploits to worry about then you can hardly blame them. A point on Monday night at home to West Ham extending their unbeaten run to four matches.

As for the Hammers, this result can be looked at in one of two ways. It is either a good point and puts further distance between themselves and Tottenham in the battle to stay up or it is opportunity missed. It is certainly the former right now but it will be the latter if they do join Wolves and Burnley in next season’s Championship.

Right, that’s the end of issue 91 as word continues to spread around the football world.

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Issue 92 drops Friday, I’ll be back with another round of insight, analysis and trends that matter. Any feedback or comments on this issue, contact me below:

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