Issue 9 - Multi Club Models

The month of June may be docile when it comes to footballing matters, but there is still plenty to talk about and this is the place where all the noise filtered out. Big thanks to the subscribers who are on board, welcome to those who are signing up. Issue 9. Go.

Fingers In Many Football Pies

It does not feel like there has been a genuine major talking point over the past few days - or if there has, it has passed me by. However, that does not mean I am short of topics to discuss and before I do, I must thank a couple of subscribers for their assists.

Because in a sense, they have done the work for me or at least teed me up in front of goal and with the feedback channels now very much open, I was asked for my take regarding multi-club ownership.

A topic that is certainly rather hot with all the going ins and outs at Crystal Palace and with John Textor announcing the sale of his Selhurst shares to compatriot Woody Johnson - that may be a good thing if it allows the Eagles into Europe but the longer-term prospects may not and a topic that I was asked to discuss at large.

The hypothesis

Is multi-club model ownership a good thing?

I am going to stick my head above the parapet and say, the concept is or at least was. The execution in this day and age is not.

If I put my forward my reasoning as to why it used to have some form of merit, I’ll serve up the City Group as an example. In its infancy, ther was some logic in having some form of cross-continental network.

Man City here, Melbourne City over there, New York City FC across the pond. Interests in each confederation all largely running under their own auspicies, with a potential talent funnel towards the Etihad.

Frank Lampard and David Villa may have got their MLS paydays under the ‘City’ brand, Aaron Mooy was even proof of the talent funnel starting to show something in terms of a dividend.

Interests across the globe, ready to be a founding father just in case either the MLS or the A-League strike gold and become a license to print money. The former is closing to that target - even if the Apple TV deal has become a noose round their neck, the latter not so much.

At this point and in this form, a multi-club model seems largely harmless. Nothing more than peacocking from a City perspective and asking what is the point if you support anybody else.

But there is always an underlying motive isn’t there. The network was always going to find its way to Europe and it would eventually do so when they invested in Spanish outfit Girona.

At the time, a Spanish outfit outside La Liga and unofficially Catalunya’s third club but with the City vehicle behind it, it was always going to end up as something more substantial.

Substance that comes in the form of unofficially making Girona Catalunya’s second club, not only where they ready to break through La Liga’s glass ceiling but also ready to mix it with Europe’s elite.

This Is Where The Problems Lie

With both Manchester City and Girona in the 2024/25 edition of the Champions League, there was always a sense that something was not right - obviously nothing in the way of collusion because they did not play each other, but the sight of two ‘City Group’ teams in the same competition was a little less palatable.

UEFA suggesting there was no problem in such an occurence and in doing so, it allows the elite of European football to network without approach. Shares moved into a trust, proof of diluted ownership and rubber stamped and away we go.

However, this then allows replication in the method and although not on the same scale in terms of direct competitive correlation, you see Chelsea cosying up to Strasbourg, there’s the Nottingham Forest to Olympiakos link, not to mention both Brentford, Crystal Palace and Brighton each building their own intracontinental networks.

If you’re Tony Bloom and the clubs in his Brighton network, then the obvious angle is the tapping in to his huge data sets and hoping to replicate the relative success that has taken place in East Sussex.

Success that has really been highlighted in Belgium as Union Saint-Gilloise won last season’s Belgian Pro League, success that Hearts will look to tap into now that they are part of Bloom’s statistical consultancy.

In fairness, this size of multi ownership cannot be considered as the true offenders of the piece but the fact that Premier League clubs of that stature can be able to flex their muscle does not bode well for the distribution of talent across Europe.

If they are all playing the role of the father club to many continental siblings then one wonders when the Premier League’s bigger fish will begin to cast their net out further afield.

It is something that is often mentioned in Liverpool-based circles. Their FSG ownership is an incredibly vast network of clubs across the Atlantic Ocean, it is almost surprising that they are yet to marry up the Anfield outfit with someone closer to home.

A Mirroring Image

That someone could be Getafe and there would be plenty of parallels between such a link and that of Manchester City and Girona. Getafe are Madrid-based and the third force in the city, any Liverpool link would boost their profle futher.

Admittedly, it would be much harder for Getafe to become the second force in Madrid as both Real and Atletico are not looking to seize power in the capital but there is definitely scope for the Estadio Coliseum outfit to be knocking on the doors of European football.

If Liverpool connect this link, that is three of the ‘big six’ as part of a multi-club model and although Tottenham do not have any formal links at present, they were one of the forefathers of such a concept.

When ENIC took ownership of the club from Sir Alan Sugar, they also took speculative punts in AEK Athens and Slavia Prague. Punts that did not pay off, punts that eventually saw full focus placed on Spurs.

That however was at the start of a millennium, a generation ago when football was still trying to find its place in a digital landscape and went through growing pains as part of its adolescence.

Now European football is fully grown up and is looking to start a family. One that may be just a little unruly for the current confines of the game, one that is looking to fly the roost and do things on its own terms.

Customer Feedback

Which leads me to my second major talking point….

And the first email to come through to the email address.

This is largely in reference to the crux of the previous issue one that discussed the potential link between my concept of managers being under pressure and the sack race itself.

As I mentioned for those who either did not read or need a refresh, the concept of pressure is not necessarily a direct correlation to who wins (or loses) the sack race but there is some form of parallel.

Like many things within football, the best way to show that parallel is with current betting odds. Unfortunately, the market for first manager sacked has not been confirmed yet (largely because there is still a vacancy at Brentford), but when it does I will try and find a connection or the opportunity to pinch some value in the market.

The Second Point

Which leads me to the second point of the email and this is why I believed Daniel Farke will be sacked after four games.

In fairness, that was not verbatim from myself but I will at least distill any confusion around my comments.

With any manager who earns promotion from the Championship into the Premier League, there is always a sense of ‘so what have you done for me lately?”

Fairly or unfairly, the efforts of the season before are always forgotten once the points tallies are reset to zero. It does not matter how many points you won the second tier by, a run of eight without a win can quickly make memories fade away.

Therefore, I always feel any promoted three are in the firing line early doors and you could replace Daniel Farke with Scott Parker or Regis Le Bris just as easily.

The underlying issue is whether they are allowed a bad season such as Vincent Kompany at Burnley before he fell on his feet at Bayern Munich or whether the board gets jittery around somebody such as Russell Martin.

While the board may have good reason to do so, of the 97 relegations that have come from the second season of the Premier League to date, 48 of them have been via the ‘yo-yo method’

The yo-yo club, what goes up must come down and with that meaning 49.4% of all relegations since the 1993/94 season onwards have been at the first time of asking, it does not bode well if you are a promoted club.

Pretty much a toss of a coin - heads or tails as to whether a promoted club will get relegated straight away in terms of probability and from a betting perspective, the trio of Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland would all need to be odds of 2.00 (Evens) to get relegated.

A look at the time of writing highlights these odds:

Sunderland 1.30
Burnley 1.40
Leeds 1.80

No value there from a toss of a coin perspective and this lack of bookmaker confidence can just as easily be matched in the boardroom before the first international break of the season.

The Filter Five

More? Yes, there’s more and it doesn’t even mention the Club World Cup.

England’s Young Lions

England U21’s got the better of the Spanish Armada equivalent at the weekend and doing so reached the semi-finals of this season’s Euro tournament, As holders, it is the Young Lions who have the biggest target on their back but could Lee Carsley be back on target for work at a senior level.

If the former Everton midfielder does manage to oversee a retaining of the age group crown, it may well put him back in the conversation regarding the England manager after World Cup 2026. With continual success, it may be difficult to overlook a continiuty candidate.

Cherries Turning Sour Quickly

In the previous issue I mentioned that Milos Kerkez is on his way to Liverpool. Not the first major departure from the Vitality Stadium this summer and likely not the last. With PSG looking to snare Illya Zabarnyi, Bournemouth’s defence could be heavily depleted.

Then again, if the Ukrainian does join both Kerkez and Dean Hujisen at another of Europe’s powerhouses, a massive pat on the back must go to Bournemouth’s recruitment team. Whether they can repeat such captures though remains to be seen.

Andrews Moving Into Pole Position

Brentford still without a manager at the time of writing, it is edging closer towards Keith Andrews. There is logic with it being in-house (albeit not a direct assistant moving up) but with the cut and thrust of the Premier League, the former Irish international could go right to the top of the pressure rankings.

Edwards In At Riverside

Michael Carrick out at Riverside, Rob Edwards in. The fomer Luton boss may have been guilty of staying on too long at Kenilworth Road but at the same time, thought he could get back to the Premier League first time around.

A man who knows the division inside out - for better or worse, can he now wake the sleeping second tier giant which is Middlebsrough?

Isak Moving On This Summer

No chance. End message.

Admin

Right, that’s the end of issue 9. Big thanks to everyone who not only subscribes but more importantly reads the newsletter. I have an open rate of nearly 55% which is really good for a new project such as this and is above industry standard.

Also, continual feedback is certainly going to help drive this forward. If you want to take the time to tell me what you liked, what you didn’t like and/or what you want to see.

Consider these summer issues as a ‘soft launch’ - the concepts and ideas will be free-flowing when the season starts, I promise you there’s more to come as we get out of this difficult June period and I will have a crack at building an actual ‘pressure ranking’

My email for correspondence is

[email protected]

Issue 10 will be out on Friday June 27th.

Thanks for reading

Dan