English clubs being dumped out of Europe. Misery added to last week’s midweek maulings. Everyone is still talking about the Premier League’s strength. There’s the small matter of the Carabao Cup final to discuss as well. Strap yourself in. Issue 83. Go.

Then there were two. Six English clubs making it to the Champions League Round of 16, four being sent packing by European counterparts. The probability of a Premier League side winning the final in Budapest dropping from 37.5% to 25%.

A one in four chance for either Arsenal or Liverpool to reign supreme in Europe but how supreme are the Premier League teams as a collective? Much has been made of their overall strength serving as their biggest weakness, but how strong is too strong?

For us to get a better idea of whether the Premier League is pumping enough iron, it is time to look at the latest set of OPTA Power Rankings - you can read more about their exact methodology on their website.

Let’s create a brand new competition - the European Premier League. 20 of the continent’s best teams, but does that necessarily mean 20 of the biggest? Not according to OPTA it does not.

If we used their rankings as the criteria of selection, it would look as follows;

The teams at the top of the list acting as no real surprise. Teams towards the bottom of the ladder perhaps something of an eye-opener. Can you really class Brighton, Brentford and Bournemouth as Europe’s true elite.

Especially as neither of this trio have appeared in continental competition this season. Are we really saying that the likes of Bayer Leverkusen, Napoli and Juventus would be better placed in this list.

If I was feeling brave I would even ask where are Tottenham in all of this. Yes a disaster of a season but they are still last season’s Europa League winners and a near perennial name in European competition. A victim of recency bias perhaps?

Of course, it is all moot because we are never going to see Bournemouth go up against Benfica in a pan-European league. How do we really guage how strong one team is when facing another?

A good measure would be actual competitive fixtures and perhaps we have to stop looking at everything through a comparitive lens and accept that some European teams are better than English teams.

A fairer reflection would be to measure where each of the Champions League quarter-finalists find themselves. No surprise that each of the top five are still in the bracket, all of the gang of eight are in the top 14.

Are PSG (4th) better than Chelsea (9th) on the evidence of what we saw across two midweek clashes, you would have to say yes and by some considerable distance. Are Arsenal the strongest club in Europe at the moment? Probably.

Top of the Premier League (best league in the world and all that), finished top of the Champions League league phase, safely through to the last eight of the competition - hard to argue against these facts.

An English team at the top of this pile but will they be top of the pile when it really matters? Forget which league really is the strongest, whichever name is etched on the Champions League trophy is the strongest indication of all.

Great news if you are either an Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest or Crystal Palace supporter. Each of these teams through to the last eight of their respective European competitions, no questions about strength in either Europa or Conference League.

However, that is also another issue that UEFA may have to deal with. In making the Champions League a 36-team competition have they pruned a bit too much from its Europa League cousin?

Six teams from the Premier League in the Champions League as now stated above, now an element of working down the list when it comes to English interest on Thursday nights, the second tier competition feeling more second class.

Not an intended slight on both Villa and Forest, but when you look at who is also left in this season’s Europa League it does not leave you in a massive rush to watch Thursday night European football.

Truth be told, I’ve not watched a single minute of it this season, it just feels like something of an afterthought. I may be in the minority, I may not, it just feels like one night too many when it comes to my viewing tastes.

Part of the reason is down to TNT Sport’s coverage of the Europa or Conference League. You either have ‘Fletch’ following Forest across Europe or other commentators obviously in a London-based studio with the audio not matching up to the pictures. No thanks.

While it is also no thanks when it comes to the last eight pairings. One of either Braga, Betis, Freiburg or Celta Vigo are going to be in the Europa League final, Aston Villa will be confident of earning a backup golden ticket to next season’s Champions League.

Which in itself could be the start of a wider issue, its not about whether English teams win the Champions League. More if they win the Europa League and get a European boost as a consequence.

Spurs the beneficiaries last season, potentially Villa and Forest this. Another English entry in the Champions League. Another additional berth being awarded as the cycle of increased participation continues.

How do you break the cycle? UEFA themselves may have the idea. Last week I mentioned country protection gives the Premier League a helping hand so early in Europe. The powers that be, are warming to the same viewpoint.

Get rid of this and the balance of power would be far more equitable and perhaps tweak the Champions League into an optimum state. That said, whatever you think of the format, the games have largely been excellent in the knockout phase.

Tweak it a little bit UEFA but not too much please.

A look at the main talking points as we head into the upcoming Premier League weekend schedule.

The Premier League weekend begins in just a few hours as draw specialists Bournemouth play host to Manchester United. The Cherries have recorded four successive stalemates in the Premier League, five from their last six outings. Andoni Iraola’s men an incredibly tough net to crack, now unbeaten in their last 10 - the longest run in the league.

As for the Red Devils, three points clear of Aston Villa in third but why stop there? A win would start to place crosstown rivals Manchester City in touching distance and if Pep’s men are truly out of the title race, a late season lull is not out of the question either. Can they make it back-to-back league wins on the South Coast?

Talking of the South Coast, Brighton find themselves at The Amex this Saturday lunchtime with hosting duties required for the visit of Liverpool. The Seagulls picking up maximum points in their recent trip to Sunderland, it is now three wins out of four for Fabian Hurzeler. Still just about in range when it comes to European qualification, a win would boost their chances.

A win that Liverpool could do with just as much and although they made light work of Galatasaray in midweek, they have not been making light work of Premier League matters in the past few weeks. Just a single point collected from the last six on offer, their run of fixtures gets even more difficult after their trip to East Sussex.

Traditionalists look away as the clash between Fulham and Burnley is the only 3pm kickoff in the Premier League on Saturday. The Scott Parker derby is precisely what it is not being called as the Cottagers look to pick up a first league win in three attempts. Grinding out a point at Nottingham Forest last weekend, the same outcome would be dissapointing for Marco Silva and his players.

Then again, it would also be disappointing for opponents Burnley when you consider their current plight. Nothing less than league wins will do for the Clarets in their bid to stay in the division. They have only achieved that on four seperate occasions, they also failed to win any of their last four. Even an additional three points here leaves them with a lot to do.

Saturday evening sees Everton play host to Chelsea and there is a slight irony in this fixture after the Blues’ hefty financial penalty. The irony in that the Toffees had to make do with a points deduction when they fell foul of the rules, the Blues getting a slap on the wrist by comparison.

With that being said, Everton will now look to punish Chelsea on the field of play and after running Arsenal close at the Emirates last weekend, David Moyes will hope his players have more edge about them. As for the visitors, bruised after another defeat to PSG in midweek, Liam Rosenior knows he and his players need to deliver on Saturday.

Leeds’ ability to grind out points is keeping their heads above water. Daniel Farke’s men have failed to win any of their last five league matches, they have at least drawn three of those. They start the weekend three points above the drop zone but fully aware that three points on Saturday would help their survival cause no end.

Brentford still in the driving seat when it comes to European qualification, again they play later than all their counterparts. They failed to truly take advantage of that scenario after being held by Wolves on Monday night, Keith Andrews’ men will have a keen eye on what happens earlier in the day. Regardless of outcomes elsewhere, the Bees will be keen to return to winning ways.

Is this truly Newcastle’s biggest game of the season? When you consider their Champions League exit at the hands of Barcelona has now closed off a route to Europe’s elite for next season, then the visit of Sunderland has only increased in its importance. The Magpies have already lost this encounter once this season, they cannot afford to do so again.

As for Sunderland, they would love nothing more than to do a league double over Eddie Howe’s men. A win would reignite any hopes of securing a place in Europe next season, it would also put them above their neighbours in the league table. The Black Cats now safe with 40 points but Sunday will be the indication as to whether they want to push for more.

Forget the Carabao Cup final, this is the big one. Tottenham versus Nottingham Forest. A relegation six-pointer in its truest form. Igor Tudor still in his managerial post at Spurs, fair enough after how his side have performed in both the Premier and Champions League in the past week but from his perspective, the momentum most continue.

As for Nottingham Forest, wholesale changes were made by Vitor Pereira in Europe on Thursday with this clash in mind. Even with those changes, they still booked their place in the last eight of the Europa League. They have not won any of their last seven in the league, then again Spurs have not won any of their last 12. Talk about tension.

The same time as the duel in North London, Aston Villa play host to West Ham. Unai Emery’s men fresh off their win over Lille in the Europa League on Thursday, not so fresh when it comes to output in the Premier League. No win in any of their last four league outings, more importantly they have lost each of their last three.

As for the Hammers, they start the weekend sitting in the bottom three but go to Villa Park knowing that a win would take them out of the drop zone. One of Spurs or Forest has to drop points, both could undercut each other in the form of a stalemate. Nuno Espirito Santo’s men have only lost one of their last six, do not underestimate them before Sunday.

England have announced a bumper 35-man squad for their upcoming international friendlies. The headlines not only that Trent Alexander-Arnold and Ollie Watkins have been left out - that does not bode well for North America but a surprise goalkeeper selection.

Brighton’s Jason Steele has been included by Thomas Tuchel and although he may not officially make the World Cup squad, he could still be on his way to North America as the unofficial fourth goalkeeper for training purposes. Best cancel those summer holiday plans Jason.

There is the small matter of the Carabao Cup final on Sunday as Arsenal play host to Manchester City. More than silverware at stake as this game is often a launchpad for greater things.

Can Arsenal win and knock the stuffing out of City once and for all. Can City bloody the nose of the Gunners and send them into a league tailspin? Sunday at Wembley should make for interesting viewing,

FIFA have announced that every team within their women's football tournaments must include at least one female head coach or assistant coach within their managerial team.

Personally I think it’s a good move, it will open up more possibilities and although people will argue about why the best people regardless of the gender should not get the jobs, this will allow female coaches to get more prominence in the game.

Lionel Messi scored his 900th career goal in the week, his 81st for current club Inter Miami. Of those 755 where with his left foot, 111 with his right, 30 with his head and four were labelled as ‘other’. Does ‘Other’ mean his arse? What else could you score with?

The FPL deadline is 18;45 this evening (UK time). Act fast, act now!

Right, that’s the end of issue 83 as word continues to spread around the football world.

This isn’t a newsletter that follows the crowd. It sets the lens through which you see the game and more than 190 subscribers are now viewing it through that lens.

If you’re serious about understanding football, staying ahead of the stories, and cutting through the noise, keep this in your inbox - send it to your friend’s inbox as well.

Issue 84 drops Tuesday and I’ll be back with another round of insight, analysis and trends that matter. Any feedback or comments on this issue, contact me below:

[email protected]

Follow me on Twitter (x) - https://x.com/dantracey1983

Follow me on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/dantracey/