The FA Cup’s last eight have been decided. English teams take on their European counterparts in midweek. Are they too strong for the rest of the continent? Are UEFA running scared? How do they fix a problem like the Premier League? Issue 80. Go

The Champions League returns to action this evening, it is already underway as I craft this newsletter as Galatasaray play host to Liverpool. The Reds one of six teams left in the competition, there are six English teams in the Round of 16.

Domestic dominance but not viewed as a good thing for the competitive landscape of European football as a whole. A point that is often parroted by those who follow a team on the continent, a view privately feared behind UEFA’s close doors.

All the talk of Premier League dominance last season as all four English outfits make the Round of 16. PSG picked up the trophy in dominant fashion at the end of the season.

All the talk of Premier League dominance this season as all six English outfits make the Round of 16. Will another non-English club reign supreme in just a few months.

If that is the case, then the talk or even foes of imbalance are nothing more than hot air. Real Madrid lifted the trophy two seasons ago, Manchester City the last Premier League club to rule Europe’s roost back in 2023.

Not the pattern of English superiority that has been mapped out but its not what has happened since 2023 which is the fear, it is what happens in 2027 and beyond. The three letters SCR the most important of all.

From the start of the 2026/27 Premier League season, the 20 clubs will be able to spend 85% of their income on player costs as a general rule - certain factors allow for a maximum spend of 115%.

Whether it be 85% or 115%, it is far higher than UEFA’s own 70% cap that they have in place for their three major European club competitions. The 70% cap would also apply to any English clubs participating in the trio of tournaments.

The biggest clubs in line with the likes of Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid. Those with no requirement to use their passports for the 2026/27 campaign now with the ability to spend more.

The ‘problem’ from UEFA’s perspective is that it will only strengthen the Premier League as a whole even further. You spend a season out of Europe - you get to spend more than your continental counterparts. You get back into Europe for 2027/28, you are well armed for the fight.

A cycle that when you add the extra place that could also be offered to the Premier League in terms of overall performance only strengthens their ability to test themselves against the elite of Europe.

Of course, only one team can win the Champions League each season but if say, five of the eight teams each time are from the Premier League then it does not make for an exciting prospect for those with eyes on the competition.

It almost supports the point I made about the Champions League feeling like its non-canon. It increasingly feels like a spin-off series from the main football storyline of the Premier League.

If you are unsure what I mean when I use the term non-canon; In fiction, canon means the events that are officially part of the story’s timeline.

Therefore, Non-canon refers to things that technically happen but don’t meaningfully affect the main narrative.

Which means in Champions League terms: A small group of financially dominant clubs, particularly from the Premier League — consistently reach the latter stages of the UEFA Champions League.

That reduces the sense that Europe is the culmination of domestic merit. A competition to win but not the absolute pinnacle that was before.

If European teams can still withstand the might of the English clubs and come out on top, then the SCR imbalance will not be as prevalent as UEFA first feared. If they cannot, then they may have to think of new financial rules in order to redress the balance once again.

Do you think European football has lost its balance for good? How would you fix it? I’d love to get your ideas in my mailbox in the next few days.

Arsenal seven points clear, they can afford to lose at the Etihad. The title nearly theirs but the title has nearly been theirs for two of the past three seasons - not counting Liverpool’s runaway success last time around. Can the Gunners go the distance?

If we look at the data from how each Premier League team has performed in the past 100 matches, things look rather positive for Mikel Arteta’s men:

The gold standard when it comes to ongoing form. Arsenal have won 64 of their last 100 Premier League matches. Last time we checked this dataset, they and Manchester City were neck and neck - now the Gunners lead by two wins.

First and second in this and the Premier League table, equilibrium when matching the two metrics together. Is this an indicator as to what will happen in the next few weeks? It certainly indicates Liverpool’s drop off.

Still three places worse off when it comes to their current league position compared to their ongoing number of wins. The Merseyside men have won 59% of their last 100 - one of five clubs that manage a win every other game or more.

The biggest disparity can be found at Newcastle. If you were looking solely at league wins over the past 100 games, Eddie Howe’s men would comfortably be in the European places. Instead, they find themselves sitting 12th in the Premier League.

Positionally the biggest negative swing but the focus must surely be placed on Spurs. They have won just 34% of their last 100 Premier League matches. That in itself is only good enough for 13th in the win table, they currently find themselves 16th in the league.

The biggest success story is at the Stadium of Light, Sunderland only 19th when it comes to wins across their last 100. They have in fact, only won one in four. This season they have won closer to one in three. What will next season bring? Second season syndrome?

When looking at the last 100 matches per club, the standard deviation between win rank and league position is just 2.88 places, suggesting the Premier League table remains overwhelmingly driven by wins rather than the strategic accumulation of draws.

Better to win one and lose the next week instead of drawing two in a row? It seems that way. Then again, nobody thinks of next week when they’ve just lost. If only football fans looked a bit further ahead.

Liverpool get their revenge in the FA Cup after a midweek defeat to Wolves. The same Molineux -as the staging post, Friday night seeing a different outcome. When did Andy Robertson become Andrew Robertson? Seems like all Andy’s morph into Andrew later in their careers.

Mo Salah on the scoresheet, originally chalked of but then VAR stepped in. I thought it was strange to see the ball as the frame of reference in the semi-automated offside image. I’ve never seen that before, maybe a chip in the ball would save everyone a lot of hassle going forward.

Mansfield push Arsenal close but the Gunners’ quality shone through in the end. Mikel Arteta’s men much changed than from Premier League exploits. Eberechi Eze’s Premier League quality the true difference with his well-placed winner.

How many trophies can Arsenal pick up this season. Will it be at least one with a Carabao Cup win over Manchester City next weekend?

If you were drawing an FA Cup clash wishlist you would probably have each point ticked off after watching Wrexham and Chelsea on Saturday night. An extra-man was always going to be useful for Liam Rosenior’s men. 11 versus 11 for 120 minutes and who knows what the outcome would be.

Who knows if Chelsea’s third goal would have been given if it were not for VAR. The speed of the ball bouncing back out could have easily seen a ‘ghost goal’ missed. A rare instance where technology actually did us a favour.

Newcastle must be absolutely sick of Omar Marmoush. Another cup double for the Egyptian as Manchester City move on to the last eight and a mouthwatering clash with Liverpool.

As for Eddie Howe’s men, it now seems like Champions League or bust if they want to get back into Europe next season. Next weekend’s Tyne-Wear derby is going to have even more needle attached to it.

Fulham make wholesale changes in a bid to improve their chances of qualifying for Europe through the Premier League. Had they gone full strength at home to Southampton, they could have increased their chances of winning the FA Cup.

Marco Silva’s men had a first half goal disallowed. The right decision, albeit the wrong reason. Jarred Gillett with a lucky escape after being a little whistle happy too quickly. Southampton fans very happy with their late winning penalty. Arsenal awaits in the Sixth Round.

A nice good old-fashioned FA Cup giant-killing. No complaints about a Premier League team chucking it in terms of their starting eleven just beaten on the day by a team from leagues below.

Port Vale may be having a torrid time in League One, their win over Sunderland is going to cause all manner of fixture scheduling nightmares but those connected with the Vale Park outfit will have not cared about any of that when they heard Sunday’s final whistle.

The ‘Daniel Farke derby’ is won by Leeds. A comfortable win at Elland Road but is this a good distraction for the West Yorkshire outfit. Far from safe when it comes to Premier League safety, they may need to handle their Sixth Round draw with West Ham carefully.

As for Norwich, their exit at least means that Philippe Clement’s men can focus on keeping their heads above the EFL Championship relegation zone.

The same cup progress could also have a cautionary tale for West Ham. With the way the Sixth Round draw has panned out, at least one relegation-threatened team is going to Wembley. The Hammers in the last eight after a penalty shootout win over Brentford on Monday.

As for Brentford, their cup exit is going to feel like a missed opportunity. Perhaps not when it comes to winning it outright - although Crystal Palace will have certainly served as their inspiration but definitely from the perspective of at least one Wembley trip. The less said about Panenka’s the better.

Celtic through to the Scottish Cup semi-finals after a penalty shootout win over Rangers. Bedlam at Ibrox following soon after. Any hopes of increased Old Firm allocations for Scottish Premiership games out the window. Absolutely no chance that the alcohol ban that has been in place since the early 1980’s get removed.

Progress for Martin O’Neill’s men, a backwards step for the game as a whole. A feeling that will feel even sorer with the league being in such a strong spotlight these past few months.

Kyle Walker calls time on his England career. The Burnley defender earned 96 caps for the Three Lions, shame he could not see 100 but I think a place on the North American plane would have been wishful thinking. A great servant for his country it must be said.

Joey Barton gets arrested for an attack at a Golf club.
Joey Barton has to now pay £300,000 for his social media attack on Eni Aluko.
Ouch.

Heard the one about the referee being sent to the VAR monitor but the fans got their first? German second tier action between Preussen Munster and Hertha Berlin perhaps the inspiration for us all.

Referee Felix Bickel was asked by VAR to review the incident on a pitchside monitor, but found the screen blank. No call from Bickel but instead his colleague in the VAR control room. A penalty given in the end, the plug not quite pulled.

Port Vale’s FA Cup win also raises a good talking point. Should lower ranked teams always be at home? What happens if teams of the same division face each other? Should the FA Cup take a leaf out of the Copa Del Rey’s book or leave as is? Let me know below.

Right, that’s the end of issue 80 as word continues to spread around the football world.

This isn’t a newsletter that follows the crowd. It sets the lens through which you see the game and more than 190 subscribers are now viewing it through that lens.

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Issue 81 drops Friday and I’ll be back with another round of insight, analysis and trends that matter. Any feedback or comments on this issue, contact me below:

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