Time constraints this week. So this one is a pre-recorded article. No drop in quality I promise you just this added with the midweek Premier League football as well means no idea if I am coming or going. Some numbers crunched, a quicker look at last weekend. Issue 78. Go.

Everyone talks about the Premier League being the best league in the world, a claim that if you like goals certainly rang true on Saturday. If you liked 2-1 wins, then Sunday would have only solidified that point.

But what really makes a good league? If you were designing one from scratch, it would probably have these four parts attached to it:

A title race that goes down to the wire

A relegation battle that goes down to the final minute

A whole host of teams bidding for European places

Different teams in different sub plots from season to season

But how do we measure that exactly? It all feels a bit qualitative rather than quantitative. A wishlist rather than something functional or numerical. Thankfully there is a way to do so. There is always a way to do so.

The way we are going to measure this is with something called the Herfindahl–Hirschman index (HHI).

Not the flashiest of names, so we will call it HHI from here on in.

What is HHI? Think of it as the measure of market share and our market is going to be title wins.

As good a place to start as any is the ‘best league in the world’ - it is all very well branding yourself as that but now it is time to put it to the test. So how do we measure HHI?

Let’s take all the Premier League winners from the last 10 seasons:

Manchester City have 60% of the market after winning six of the last 10, Liverpool 20%, Chelsea and Leicester 10%

So that’s 0.06, 0.02, 0.02 and 0.01 in numerical terms.

Then we have to square those numbers

0.36, 0.04, 0.01, 0.01 = a total of 0.42

In a scale of 0.00 to 1.00 - This indicates moderate concentration. Dominated by Manchester City but with a few other winners. For context, an HHI of 1 would mean a single team wins all 10 seasons, and 0.20 would be an even five-way split.

So that highlights an element of competitiveness in the Premier League. There could be more, but it is not a complete duopoly or monopoly. Although if City win the league this season, their market share would increase to 70% and Leicester would drop out.

So it could be: 0.07, 0.02 and 0.01

0.49, 0.04 and 0.01 = 0.54. A higher concentration towards 1. Further highlighting City’s dominance. If Arsenal win, then they would just replace Leicester and the value of 0.42 stays as is.

Ok, that’s the logic behind it but that is just a number in isolation. Now I am going to see how the Premier League compares against its other major European counterparts:

These numbers clarify what we already know. Bundesliga is less competitive as is Ligue 1. No surprise when you consider the individual might of Bayern Munich and PSG respectively.

By the HHI, the Premier League and La Liga are actually the same in terms of overall competitiveness. However, this seems more a quirk than anything else. Only three clubs have won the Spanish crown in the past 10 seasons compared to five in England.

While Serie A displays the most competitive balance in terms of title winners. This league has certainly become the most open of the major European leagues these past few years, so the numbers tend to stack up.

Which also means we can expand on this concept and also see how easy or difficult it is to secure a top four finish in each of these five leagues. Once again, we will do so with the HHI doing the leg work.

Let’s take the Premier League as an example:

If you do all the same sums as before. This time it will be how many times a team has appeared in the top four. So a total of 40 but each club can only be a maximum of 10 themselves. The HHI is 0.1625.

Compare that to all the other top five leagues and you will see how easy it is for a team to finish in the top four.

Now we know how competitive leagues are in terms of winning it and also trying to finish in the top four. We also need to work out how many clubs are required to make this all effective.

Or another way: If all clubs were equally strong, how many clubs would be needed to produce the same distribution of top-4 finishes?

Calculation: Effective Clubs=HHI/1

We can also estimate how many clubs have realistically competed for the top-four. The higher the HHI, the fewer clubs dominate; lower HHI means more rotation.”

So is the Premier League the best league in the world? On the numerical evidence above, we can say with some confidence that it is. Ultimately it all depends on what measures or criteria you apply from a pure competitiveness scale, it seems to tick all the boxes.

Any questions about the whole HHI measure concept. Do feel free to get in touch. Happy to explain in more detail. Share with others if you thought it was of interest.

Aston Villa’s title bid blown up at Molineux on Friday night. Wolves serving as your pesky annoying younger brother just popping up at taking points off of teams when least expected. At least they have surpassed Derby’s hall of shame points tally of 11. No unwanted record here.

A share of the points down by the sea. A result that arguably does either Bournemouth or Sunderland any real favours in terms of their bid for European qualification. The fact that they are both in the race for the continent should obviously be lauded.

Almost the comeback of all comebacks. However, the VAR controversy overshadowed just how bad Burnley were in the first half. Brentford fortunate that nobody seems to know the handball laws. That one was far from clear and obvious, Ashley Barnes’ goal should have stood.

Liverpool made light work of West Ham and their five-goal haul sees them move into the top five. Champions League football back on the horizon for Arne Slot, looking closer to getting a third season at Anfield. As for West Ham, the only solace they take is that none of their relegation rivals took points at the weekend.

Once again Newcastle slip up in the Premier League at home and even direct European qualification is looking out of reach. A whole host of teams sitting above them in the race for seventh at least. Everton have Jordan Pickford to thank for that world-class save late on. Best save ever? Not sure. Incredible save. Definitely.

No Haaland, no problem for Manchester City. Antoine Semenyo looking like he’s been at the Etihad for years. His goal the difference at Elland Road on Saturday night. All Pep Guardiola’s men can do is keep winning. Do that and everything will fall into place. As for Leeds, another solid account of themselves but disappointment not to land a blow on the title chasers.

The tide has definitely turned at Brighton these past couple of weeks. Back-to-back wins for Fabian Hurzeler’s men and once again the maps for Europe may be back out of the dashboard. As for Nottingham Forest, Vitor Pereira is still searching for his first points since taking over. Still outside the bottom three for now.

Surely you just give the Manchester United boss to Michael Carrick full time. Why would you not? 19 points from the 21 on offer. Players playing with a smile on their face. No smiles for Crystal Palace in the end. Maxence Lacroix’s smile wiped off when sent off. I thought their was enough coverage to avoid the DOGSO decision. Harsh.

You fear for Tottenham you really do. The North London derby was never going to be the true looking glass as to how Spurs will perform under Igor Tudor, defeat at Fulham certainly was. The Cottagers once again firmly part of the European conversation, just three points behind Brentford in seventh.

Arsenal pass another test with flying colours. A few bodyslams and suplexes at the Emirates but it is what we have come to expect under Mikel Arteta this season. Chelsea’s weak link is Robert Sanchez. Could have shipped two howlers in the first quarter hour or so, if I was Liam Rosenior, I would be shipping him out in the summer.

Right, that’s the end of issue 78 as word continues to spread around the football world.

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Issue 79 drops Friday and I’ll be back with another round of insight, analysis and trends that matter. Any feedback or comments on this issue, contact me below:

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