No wobble from Arsenal, no Tudor revolution for Tottenham. Manchester City doing their bit, Erling Haaland the bruiser at the back. Forest chopped down in the final minute, Alexis Mac Allister finally got a goal. It’s all here in the Real Football Filter. Issue 76. Go.

Back in Issue 69, I unveiled my dynamic database that looks at the last 100 Premier League results of each of the 20 teams in the division. Nearly a month after I lifted back the curtain, it’s time to have a look at how everybody is doing.

The edge that Arsenal had has now been wiped out. The Gunners had previously won 64 of their last 100 league outings, a figure that has dropped to 63. A 63% win rate for those who prefer percentage terms, the same as title rivals Manchester City.

The two teams separated by five points, Pep Guardiola’s men with a game in hand. When you look at the wider lens of historic data, the top two are matching each other stride for stride.

History may give a solid indication of current performance but it is future performance that matters most for Arsenal and City. All eyes on that April clash at the Etihad, it cannot come soon enough.

The race for the Champions League sees Liverpool three places worse off than form suggests, Aston Villa’s form bettered by their league position, no complaints from Unai Emery’s camp.

Newcastle and Fulham big losers but certainly not the biggest. Tottenham’s plight worsening by the week. 16th in the table, not even top half when it comes to listing the clubs by win rank %.

Sunderland still the biggest success story of the season so far, Everton’s campaign should also see David Moyes’ given his flowers after pulling the Toffees out of another sticky situation towards the bottom.

What does this data tells us when you look past all the noise attached to ups and downs?

To win a league title, you need to win two thirds of your league matches (or more)

One in win four is relegation form. Shrink that down to a season of 38 games and that is nine wins in a single campaign. 27 points there, maybe a few draws to go with it but ultimately a drop to the Championship awaits.

Four wins out of every ten (or two wins out of five) is about the biting point for European football but not necessarily a guarantee either.

That is what we can take from it if we look at the past, what happens when we look at the future?

Time to delve to the Opta Power Rankings - actually The Athletic have done it for me but I did notice with this infograph that it does not really tell as much as of a story as first claimed.

To explain the methodology each of the 20 clubs have a rating ranging from Arsenal (100.0) to Wolves (87.0) - a 13.0 range from the top of the list to the bottom.

From there, a mean average of each team’s opponents between now and the end of the season has been calculated. Aston Villa having the ‘easiest’ set of fixtures, as their average opposition is ranked 89.9. West Ham with the toughest at 92.2

However, there is one important point to consider here. A range of 2.3 between Villa and the Hammers suggests that nobdody has got easy fixtures between now and May, such a small range from highest to lowest suggests that the Premier League is strong overall.

No respite for any involved, drops point can be found anywhere and even if you look at it from a title race perspective even Arsenal and Manchester City are split by 0.5 - just as they match each other step by step in terms of win rate % above, their future opposition ranking can hardly be split apart.

Of course, this is also needs to be taken with wider context - the best way to do this is by comparing it to other leagues. The wider range, the true ‘easier’ fixtures exist, also this doesn’t account for home or away fixtures either.

An interesting talking point but whether it adds value or adds noise I will leave to you.

Any thoughts on either of the two points feel free to get in touch

Which leads me to a reminder to new subscribers as well as old. This newsletter is not a dumping ground for all my thoughts and concepts. Anything you want to ask or offer in terms of feedback or ideas, the mailbox through comments or emails is always open.

A look at the main talking points as we head into the upcoming Premier League weekend schedule.

Aston Villa may have the easiest fixtures between now and the end of the season according to OPTA, they may need all of them if their current inconsistencies are going to catch them out. Two points dropped at the weekend, it needed a late Tammy Abraham goal to salvage one. Not the worst result on Saturday, the damage done elsewhere on Monday.

As for Leeds, that point kepps the Elland Road outfit within the six-point margin of error when it comes to the relegation battle but the fact that they have overtaken and subsequently stayed ahead of Tottenham in the past couple of weeks is not something that should be overlooked. Far more panic in North London than West Yorkshire right now.

The data derby sees Brentford hitting CTRL + ALT + DEL after their defeat to Brighton on Saturday. A rare off day for the Bees at the GTech, but the damage limited by the failure of both Bournemouth and Everton to take full advantage. The Bees masters of their own downfall when it came to overall performance, you can’t win them all.

While Brighton had not won any of their last six before the visit to West London. They certainly needed victory on Saturday, their endeavour paying off with two first half goals. 34 points on the board already and even if this one goes to above 40 points from safety, their win over Brentford has just dialled down the feeling of discomfort on the South Coast.

A sense of deja vu for Chelsea at the weekend. Comfortable in their lead against Leeds recently, that ended in a draw. Comfortable in their lead against Burnley on Saturday, you know how this one played out. The game turning on the sending off for Wesley Fofana - the racist abuse on social media that he and other Premier League players have received in the past week nothing short of mindless. The battle to cure the games ills continues.

Burnley celebrating their draw at Stamford Bridge like a win and rightly so considering it seemed so unlikely at one stage of the encounter. The Clarets know they are definitely up against it when it comes to the relegation battle but as long as they still have some chance of survival, they will not down tools just yet. Scott Parker almost cracked a smile at full time.

West Ham having to make do with a point at home to Bournemouth on Saturday evening. Far from a classic in East London and although it would have felt like two points dropped at time. it can certainly be logged as a point gained by the time Nottingham Forest’s result filtered through the following day. 11 points from the last 18 = momentum.

While Bournemouth’s momentum towards the European places was derailed slightly after their bore draw in the capital. Then again, any team fighting for the life should never be easy to go to (take note Spurs) and Cherries’ fans will at least take solace that the club’s unbeaten run in the Premier League has been extended to seven - the second longest run in the division.

Erling Haaland at the back, not causing his usual damage but acting as the great protector of Manchester City’s defence. A battle for the ages with Dan Burn who was playing as an auxillary battering ram for Newcastle on Saturday. Every tackle that the hosts made at the Etihad was celebrated with the usual fervour that comes with cheering on a goal.

City doing their bit in the title equation, Newcastle pushing them all the way on Saturday night though. Their string of away wins in all competitions finally coming to an end. Foiled by a Nico O’Reilly double. Also foiled by Dan Burn being pushed into an offside position. The laws are the laws and it was the right decision but City are bloody good at stretching them to the nth degree aren’t they.

Vitor Pereira’s Sunday trip to Wetherspoons delayed by at least a week and although Nottingham Forest could not follow up on their impressive Europa League win over Fenerbahce in midweek, the new manager can at least take plenty of positives from his first seven days in charge. More home performances like that, more points on the board.

While Liverpool need every point they can get their hands on - reeling in Chelsea after their draw the day before, how important could Alexis Mac Allister’s late goal be come the final day. Of course, that reference is to his actual 97th minute winner, which should have been an 89th minute winner. Handball when you are turning your body from the ball? No, not for me. Still, that decision did not matter in the grand scheme of things - luckily.

Sunderland suffered their third successive league defeat of the season, not that it matters all that much at this stage of proceedings. Regis Le Bris’ men must surely be the first genuine candidate to be ‘on the beach’ after picking up 36 points already. Planning for next season can already begin. Problem is, the clock soon resets to zero.

As for Fulham, they keep their European hopes after ending their own streak of three successive defeats. I know there’s only a point between themselves and Sunderland but I just feel the Black Cats have hit auto-pilot mode now after such a bright start to the campaign, the Cottagers as proved on Sunday still have performances left in them.

Hardly a classic at Selhurst Park but Crystal Palace fans will not care one iota after a home win over Wolves. Much needed considering such indifferent results as of late and especially after their woeful showing in Bosnia just days before. They like Sunderland can almost get ready to put their Hawaiian shirts on, Oliver Glasner already has it seems.

As for Wolves, frustration not to follow up on such a strong comeback performance against Arsenal last Wednesday. Further frustration when you consider they missed a penalty, had a man sent off and then shipped a winning goal in the last minute of regulation time. The focus now is just getting more overall points than Derby (11).

It is the hope that kills you. Sucked in by new manager bounce. Sucked in by Igor Tudor’s motivating interview on Friday. Add that to the Arsenal blip and the opportunity to upset the league leaders was on. An opportunity that only created a sense of illusion for anyone following Tottenham. The reality is that this team is not too good to go down. They are not very good. Sunday’s trip to Fulham will have a greater definition on proceedings.

As for Arsenal, they had the perfect answer to those saying they were in a rut. They always seem to have the perfect answer when they are truly questioned. In the North London derby, the perfect player is Eberechi Eze. Five goals against Tottenham in just two league games, talk about sliding doors and all that.

Monday Night Raw came from Merseyside as Everton played host to Manchester United. The grappling in the box would have made the late Hulk Hogan proud, IFAB or FIFA are going to have to do something about jostling for corners, it is getting a bit silly now. The fact this is the main narrative of the game says a lot.

Not that Manchester United will be worried about the wrestling in the box, they will be interested in wrestling third place from Aston Villa. Only three points seperate the two in the race for third place. 16 points from the last 18 under Michael Carrick, his case to be made permanent manager looking just as strong as United’s bid for a Champions League return.

Sheffield Wednesday the first club to be relegated from any English division in February after their defeat to rivals United on Sunday. A hiding to nothing all season, fight with such a weakened team can only get them so far. New owners cannot come soon enough.

Hearts bouncing back after defeat to Rangers the weekend before in perfect fashion. Their win over Falkirk laying down the gauntlet to both Rangers and Celtic - a gauntlet they failed to run properly.

The Ibrox outfit could only earn a point at Livingston, the Hoops foiled by Hibs at Celtic Park. Hearts five clear at the top, the next Old Firm derby takes place at the weekend - at least one of the Glasgow pair will drop further points.

After an entertaining 3-3 draw in Belgium last weekend, the Champions League tie between Atletico Madrid and Club Brugge was evenly poised going into Tuesday evening’s second leg.

No such parity in the return fixture at the Wanda Metropolitano, Diego Simeone’s men winning 4-1 in front of their own support. Liverpool or Tottenham await them in the Round of 16.

While Madrid’s other major outfit are in action on Wednesday as Real Madrid look to protect their 1-0 lead over Benfica,. The game overshadowed by Vinicius Jr reporting alleged racist abuse during last week's Champions League meeting.

As a conseqence, it means the Gianluca Prestianni is set to miss the second leg at the Santiago Bernabeu. UEFA label it as a ‘provisional ban’ but do not be surprised if further sanction is applied on the Argentine winger.

Swansea’s Championship clash with Stoke on Tuesday had a special guest. Snoop Dogg. His first game since becoming an investor of the South Wales club. I know I try to make sense of football, but sometimes you just have to sit back at the absurdity of it all.

Right, that’s the end of issue 76 as word continues to spread around the football world.

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Issue 77 drops Friday and I’ll be back with another round of insight, analysis and trends that matter. Any feedback or comments on this issue, contact me below:

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