Issue 50 - Of Paramount Importance

A half century of newsletters on the same day that The Ashes begins. Coincidence? Yes. However, there is plenty to dissect as the Premier League returns front and centre from its November nap. Full speed ahead from now until the festive break. Issue 50. Go.

TNT Blown Up

In issue 38 of the Real Football Filter I made reference to UEFA’s plans regarding the sale of their Champions League rights. Change that they hoped came in the form of a global bidder for its biggest matches.

That change has not come about as the likes of Netflix and Apple are not ready to empty to their pockets just yet and although UEFA may have slight disappointment in not squeezing further value out of their rights, they have still managed to cash in.

And cash in big it should be said, especially from a UK-based perspective and whereas TNT held the rights to the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, this is no longer the case.

TNT blown out of the water on multiple fronts, Paramount + the new home for Champions League football in 2027/28. A big win for the company that oversees the CBS-branded coverage in the United States. A big defeat for UK consumers.

With TNT now set to hand their rights over at the beginning of the season after next, it means the need to sign up for another media package (that is unless you currently receive Paramount+ in the UK for free via Sky Cinema - I am sure that loophole will close).

The broadcasting pie split even further as from 2027/28 if you want to be able to watch the Champions League in full along with the Premier League and FA Cup, you are going to need subscriptions to:

Amazon - They keep hold of their Tuesday first pick
Sky Sports - Premier League
TNT - Saturday Lunchtime Premier League and FA Cup
Paramount + - All other Champions League matches

And you wonder why the use of Firesticks has increased by such a large percentage over the past year or so.

However, that will be of little concern to UEFA as when the rights were last sold, BT Sport (as it was then known) paid £917m for its package, that figure has now exceeded £1bn in the new rights tender.

£1bn just to show the majority of Champions League games in the UK. It just goes to show how live sport is considered a driver to any subscription platform. This will obviously add eyes to Paramount but is this the beginning of the end for TNT Sports?

Perhaps not if they could have also kept hold of the Europa League and Conference League that they also currently have in their portfolio. Unfortunately for them, TNT will soon be replaced by the word on Sky

Sky Is The Limit

In another surprise move, it is Sky who have returned to European competition. Why?

Well, Thursday nights bar the odd Carabao Cup fixture is a bit of footballing wasteland for their set of channels.

Sky Sports Football never seems to have much football on that night bar some EFL Gold or a playoff final from 2012 but that is never going to be a driver for subscriptions. Therefore, they have sensed these two competitions are perfect for that night.

Plenty of British teams within the two competitions, from an English perspective they have a tendency to go deep in terms of progress. Therefore, they can extract value from these rights across the whole season.

A desperate blow for TNT Sports whose coverage has admittedly become quite stale over the past few seasons. With that said, they would have preferred the opportunity to refresh themselves, rather than see themselves lose the opportunity to do so.

One Final Twist

As always, there is still some more devil in the detail and what happens on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean could dictate just how much UK-based consumers have to end up spending to watch the Champions League.

The reason being is this:

Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) own TNT Sports
WBD is attracting interest regarding a takeover
A takeover that could be completed by Paramount should they win that bidding war.
If they do, TNT Sports could simply become Paramount Sports
No need for an additional sub

The only thing that stops that is whether the likes of Netflix or Comcast beat Paramount to the punch. Should they do so, then another subscription would be needed. This football lark is not cheap to watch now is it!

Ten Quick Tackles

A look at the main talking points as we head into the upcoming Premier League weekend.

Burnley vs Chelsea

The Premier League season resumes on Saturday lunchtime at Turf Moor as Burnley play host to Chelsea. The Clarets have lost their last two league outings and defeat to West Ham at the London Stadium just under a fortnight ago has shrunk the buffer between themselves and the relegation zone.

Scott Parker’s men looking over their shoulders as they welcome a Blues side that is still without Cole Palmer after the England international has now fractured his toe at his home. Honestly, if you had a penny for that guy’s thoughts, you would still manage to get change. No change for Chelsea though as they will be looking to make it three wins in a row.

Fulham vs Sunderland

Fulham return to Premier League action having lost five of their last six. A run of form that is not worrying their owners as they decided to offer Marco Silva a new contract earlier in the week. A decision that looks a little strange on the face of it, it could look even stranger if the Cottagers succumb to a sixth defeat in seven.

Something that could be the case if Sunderland can pick up from where they left off before the November hiatus. A dramatic 2-2 draw at home to Arsenal sees Regis Le Bris’ men sit in the top four before their trip to the River Thames and in the form they are in, they will be looking to sink hosts Fulham.

Bournemouth vs West Ham

It is fair to say that Bournemouth would have been glad to see the international break get underway and after being thumped by four goals to nil at Aston Villa, manager Andoni Iraola will now charge up his Cherries in a bid to earn a first Premier League win in three attempts (two successive defeats before Saturday).

While it is also fair to say that West Ham will have rued the fact an enforced break was placed upon them. They travel to the Vitality Stadium having won each of their last two league outings and although it took a little while to get things going under Nuno, there does seem to be some light emerging out of the London Stadium.

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest

After their bruising 3-0 reverse at Manchester City, Liverpool’s season is back closer to crisis mode. Arne Slot’s men have lost five of their last six league outings but what is more fascinating, is the fact that they have not drawn any of their first 11 league games of the season. Easy to say now, but would a slight dose of pragmatism not helped the Reds?

While they may need all the help they can get when they welcome Nottingham Forest to Anfield on Saturday. Last season, the City Ground picked up four points at the expense of the likely former defending champions. Admittedly, those points came under the stewardship of Nuno Espirito Santo but I would not overlook Sean Dyche’s ability either.

Brighton vs Brentford

There may be a huge derby clash on Sunday but the meeting between Brighton and Brentford could be labelled as the “Data Derby” - it could, but in all honestly I doubt it will. Label aside, it is a clash that pits 11th against 12th together and if there is one thing both sides are lacking, it is consistency.

Not that visitors Brentford will have too many complaints considering everybody had written Keith Andrews off before he had even overseen a game in the charge of the Bees. Last time out, it was the West London outfit who got the better of Newcastle on home soil but with just one away win from five, success in East Sussex may be a tall order.

Wolves vs Crystal Palace

New manager bounce anyone? Rob Edwards could certainly do with some as he takes the reins at Molinuex and with Wolves still searching for their first league win of the season, there is no better time to find it than this weekend. Especially as they are already eight points from safety.

Standing in the way of happier times even in the short-term are Crystal Palace and with the Eagles being thwarted in a dour 0-0 draw with Brighton before the international break, manager Oliver Glasner will be keen to see his players thrust themselves further up the league table.

Newcastle vs Manchester City

Saturday evening’s Premier League sampling comes from Tyneside as Newcastle play host to Manchester City. This clash is not usually short of entertainment and with Eddie Howe’s men playing far better at home than they are away, they will identify this fixture as one where they can get at least a point for their efforts.

However, they go up against a City side that is beginning to smell blood towards the top of the table. If they can pick up victory at St James’ Park, they will cut the gap to Arsenal to a single point for at least 24 hours. Of the 11 points that Pep Guardiola’s men have dropped this season, eight have been on the road - that needs to improve, if they are to eventually return to the summit of English football.

Leeds vs Aston Villa

While Leeds need to improve if they are to avoid returning to the second tier of English football. I have referenced that Daniel Farke seems to be the Premier League manager under the most pressure and that will only be turned up further if Aston Villa get their way on Sunday.

Unai Emery’s men are certainly one of the form sides at present and this was made clear when they made very light work of Bournemouth just under a fortnight ago and with the cluster of teams between third and tenth being so congested, a win and the combination of fixtures elsewhere could see them end the week in the top four.

Arsenal vs Tottenham

Much has been made of Arsenal’s growing injury list but if they are to prove that they are championship material, they will have to grind out results even when their cloth is cut. The absence of Gabriel not ideal timing before the visit of Tottenham on Sunday, this could be the most important that the Gunners’ back four has to deal with to date.

Usually a trip to the Emirates is not one that Tottenham fans will be looking forward to, in this instance playing away from N17 may actually offer some benefits to Thomas Frank’s men. The form team on the road before this weekend’s action gets underway and for that reason, I think Spurs derailing their nearest rivals title bid will not be the biggest surprise.

Manchester United vs Everton

Five successive league games unbeaten for Manchester United, still not good enough for anyone looking to cut their hair but good enough to change the complexion of the Red Devils’ season. Ruben Amorim’s men start the weekend just a point behind fourth-place Sunderland, they will be another team that is keen to end it in the Champions League place.

Fourth or fifth probably paying the same prize at the end of the season but its not a prize Everton will have a raffle ticket for but that does not mean that European football as an idea is completely closed off for David Moyes men. Win and they can gatecrash the top half, lose and they may have to start looking over their shoulders towards the drop.

Predictive Power

They are the main takeaways but what are the main outputs from my AI predictive model?

Six results right last time out. My AI assistant sitting in mid-table it seems.

What do you think the scores will be this weekend. Can you beat AI? Let me know in the comments below.

The Filter Five

Five sprints up the touchline to keep you warm

Birmingham Goes Bonkers

Birmingham City have announced plans for their new stadium and let’s just say it is different. Then again, I think the difference should be applauded. We need more stadia that are absolutely wacky in design.

Bit like when Chelsea had plans to move into Battersea Power Station. More uniquness not bowl-based boredom.

Update The Spreadsheet

Premier League clubs have voted in new financial rules from 2026/27 called Squad Cost Ratio (SCR) and Sustainability & Systemic Resilience (SSR). Which means goodbye PSR but at the same time, what does it really mean?

SCR: - Clubs can spend up to 85% of football revenue and player sale profit. A 30% multi-year “over-spend” buffer (with levy) to come into effect, then hard cap or sanctions.

SSR: - Assess a club’s short, medium and long-term financial health through three tests – Working Capital Test, Liquidity Test and Positive Equity Test.

Confused? Me too.

Letter To America

In the last issue of the Real Football Filter, I wrote an ode to international football. It was released just before the Scotland vs Denmark game got underway. In the words of co-commentator James McFadden “wow”. Welcome to the party, the Tartan Army.

Sack The Board

Another “wow” moment in Scottish football took place on Friday morning during Celtic’s AGM. The board coming out to a plethora of boos and a see of oversized red cards from shareholders in attendance. Never change Scottish football. Honestly, never change.

Fantasy Stuff

FPL deadline is 11:00 Saturday morning (UK time). Are we just at the point where Haaland is the captain every week? Where are the differential players these days?

Admin

Right, that’s the end of issue 50 as word continues to spread around the football world.

If you liked issue 50, tell a friend and forward it on. If you didn’t like issue 50 please tell me why.

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