Issue 5 - To Be Frank

The Nations League comes to an end. The Club World Cup is just around the corner. No rest for the superstars of world football, no rest for the superstar subscribers who read this newsletter. Let’s talk football shall we.

Tottenham’s New Man

Not confirmed at the time of writing but by the following issue of the Real Football Filter, the arrival of Thomas Frank to Tottenham should be completed.

Bar a breakdown in negotiations and/or Daniel Levy getting cold feet at the prospect of paying £8-10m for a manager, Ange Postecoglou’s replacement will have been installed in the space of a week.

Just three weeks after Tottenham’s memorable night in Bilbao, but those memories are already becoming distant now that a new man will soon be at the N17 helm - a man who has long since tipped with a “big six” opportunity.

The same poisoned chalice that so many other managers have been attached to in the past but for any manager who founds himself outside the employment departments of this elite half-dozen, the time to stick or twist can also mirror sliding doors.

You need to build your stock as a manager - to do so, it means establishing a club in the Premier League, moving up the table and finding yourself bloodying the noses of the giants from time to time.

Then the whispers start, is “manager x” in the frame for “club y” - yes but he has no experience, now’s not the time.

The stock stays high but then you have to be careful enough not to be at the same helm if your stock is plummeting - at that point you then become a target that has begun to lose its allure.

At the same time as all of this, there are external forces. Conversation where such as such has surely stayed too long or now has to be the time for him to move on - the perceived notion of the stepping stone actually has to be stepped on.

Howe For Now

Think of someone such as Eddie Howe. When he was first at Bournemouth, he would eventually go on to take the Burnley post - a move up the football ladder and one that would see his career trajectory continue.

However, things did not go to plan at Turf Moor and when interviewed in a Michael Calvin book, Howe said that he almost felt pressured to leave the Vitality Stadium (or was it Dean Court) because people expected him to move on and do bigger and better things.

Ironically, those bigger and better things came about at his second stint at the Vitality Stadium. Even more ironically, his stock also took something of a tanking when he oversaw the Cherries’ relegation to the EFL Championship.

A demotion that saw a departure at the end of the 2019/20 but also a departure that ironically saw Howe keep his stock at an investable level due to not rushing back into the game.

Biding his time for the right opportunity, not just any opportunity but a gold-plated opportunity in the shape of Newcastle’s takeover by the PIF. The man to lead the charge up the table, the man who has secured two Champions League tickets since his arrival on Tyneside.

Maybe Howe is the outlier in it all when it comes to sliding managerial doors but maybe this opportunity for Thomas Frank - one that comes with Champions League football to simple plug in and play, is one that is too good to turn down.

One that is unlikely to appear from any other member of the “big six” in the near future (Manchester United aside) and because of the opportunities being thin on the ground, they have to be taken when they can.

This could also be a cautionary tale for the likes of Andoni Iraola and Fabian Hurzeler - even Oliver Glasner (even if his stock is arguably high already), you need to put yourself in the conversation but if you are always in the conversation and nothing else, maybe time has passed you by.

Grasses At Forest

“But Sir, we’ve had to do this. What about them?”

That’s the simplified version of events if it took place in a playground. The actual turn of events is within the confines of the Premier League as Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace are seemingly in some form of proxy war.

A proxy war that could see Brighton as the biggest beneficiary if Crystal Palace cannot secure their place in Europe next season.

If you are unsure how the timeline of events has panned out, this is the current state of play.

May 2025 - Crystal Palace win the FA Cup

Reverse back to March 2025 - John Textor missed deadline to put Crystal Palace shares in a blind trust.

Unconfirmed thought process “Why would I need to put my shares in a blind trust, there’s no chance Crystal Palace earn European football next season”

May 2025 - Crystal Palace win the FA Cup

Reverse back to March 2025 - Nottingham Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis does but his shares in a blind trust for the very realistic prospect of the City Ground outfit and Olympiakos getting into European football next season.

June 2025 - Palace’s celebrations are dimmed after news breaks that Crystal Palace could be uneligible for Europe due to multi-club ownership rules.

Palace and Lyon both have John Textor as a shareholder - potential pinch point.

Palace could instead drop down to the Europa Conference League as a workaround?

Ah, another of Palace’s major shareholders has shares in Brondby - route blocked.

Impasse begins, John Textor cannot sell his shares but says he has no major running of the Selhurst Park outfit.

UEFA have to decide whether this is the case and green light a debut continental tour for the South London outfit.

While they do so, Forest send a timely letter to UEFA saying that they have followed the process, if Palace have not then rules are rules.

And breath.

Taking Them Down

Talk about dobbing someone else in. It is incredibly petty act by Nottingham Forest - more so their Greek owner (or is he due to the movement of shares into a blind trust, let’s say defacto owner) but at the same time, you do have to respect it.

Respect it, because Nottingham Forest do have a point.

Respect it, because it creates an incredible subplot to this ongoing story.

Respect it, because it is the kind of pettiness that football fans can get behind.

However, the real ire should be towards UEFA. They can see to Manchester City and Girona both playing in this season’s Champions League and under the same ownership group because one of them is a very big fish.

Compare Manchester City to Palace and although the latter did win the FA Cup final at the former’s expense, they are not even in a minnow when it comes to the European landscape (albeit because they have never played in Europe).

How do Palace get out of this? They hope they get out of this, by getting into the Europa League. How they do that with the current constraints, I have no idea.

The Filter Five

Wake up - new segment alert. Five quick talking points.

Manchester City Third Choice Goalie

Scott Carson’s easiest gig in the world finally comes to an end as the morale boosting third-choice keeper’s time ends at the Etihad. Big shoes (with plenty of tread on because he never moves) to fill and shoes that will be filled by Marcus Bettinelli - nice work if you can get it.

England Toil In Andorra

90 minutes of my life that I will never get back. All the hallmarks of a June international where the players are exhausted. Good thing there is plenty of rest opportunity and not a busy club tournament starting next week. Ah…

Club World Cup Less Than Full

Hype it as much as you want. Everyone is exhausted, A curiosity watch definitely. Interest in Auckland City taking on Bayern Munich, Freak show levels at best.

Dortmund Sign Wrong Bellingham

Borussia Dortmund work experience kid signs Bellingham. Problem is that its Jobe not Jude. Not really, it is a legit signing and it will be interesting to see if he keeps mimicking his brother’s path and eventually ends up at the Bernabeu

Next Italy Boss

It won’t be Claudio Ranieri as he is ‘retired’ but could be just as retired in the same vein as Neil Warnock. It won’t be Simone Inzaghi as he has just taken the Saudi loot.

Italian football seems to have 10 big names that are all interchangable at any one time - who will Luciano Spaletti hand the Azzurri baton to?

Admin

Right, that’s the end of issue 5. Big thanks to the subscribers. 17 in the can already, be great if you could help me get that to 20

Also, feedback is certainly going to help drive this forward. If you want to take the time to tell me what you liked, what you didn’t like and/or what you want to see.

Consider these summer issues as a ‘soft launch’ - the concepts and ideas will be free-flowing when the season starts, I promise you there’s more to come!

My email for correspondence is

[email protected]

Issue 6 will be out on Friday June 13th

Thanks for reading

Dan