Issue 48 - A Video Nasty

It’s not the technology, it’s those that use it. That is the accusations that most Premier League fans say about VAR but is it true? Analysis below plus the mailbox is reopened. Add another manager feeling the pressure and some more filtered news. Issue 48. Go.

Winners And Losers

Every wondered who has benefited the most since the introduction of VAR in the Premier League?

Do you think that the referees at Stockley Park have it in for your team (let’s overlook the Luis Diaz ‘goal’ at the Tottenham Hotspurs Stadium).

Which sets of fans have the biggest chip on their shoulder for all the wrong reasons?

Thanks to recent analysis on behalf of TalkSport Bet those questions and more can now be answered thanks to analysis that has crafted from the start of the 2019/20 season when VAR was first plugged in to the end of the 2024/25 campaign.

• Brighton & Hove Albion sit far clear in first place, with a net total of 27 decisions in their favour.

• Newcastle United & Crystal Palace rank second and third, with 20 and 17 net calls in their favour, respectively.

• Premier League VAR data was analysed from the season of implementation (2019/20) through to the 2024/25 season.

If you are a Brighton supporter you may want to start praising the use of VAR in the Premier League. In the six-year period of this data sample, the Seagulls have had 49 decisions go their way.

That is not to say that it has led to 49 goals but the use of technology has been most profitable to The Amex outfit. Then again, there is always going to be a counterpoint and this the number of decisions that have gone against them.

In this six-season spell, Brighton have also seen 22 decisions go against them - giving them a net decision score of +27 - the subsequent highest of all the Premier League teams that have appeared in the top tier since 2019/20.

The Seagulls first, the Magpies second and with 44 decisions going their way and 24 against, the St James’ Park outfit have a net profit of +20 VAR calls in their favour.

Three more than Crystal Palace in third as the South London outfit have a net profit of +17 (38 for and 21 against). The total of last season’s FA Cup winners working out as one better off than Manchester United and Chelsea in joint fourth.

Be Kind, Rewind

Two of the ‘big six’ rounding out the top five, with another member of the club Tottenham sitting joint seventh with local rivals West Ham. That accounts for three of the elite half dozen, but where are the others

As you can see Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City are not in the top 10? Why?

VAR Bias? Not quite.

If you think about these three have been the cream of the crop over the past six seasons (even if the Gunners did not win the title during that phase), they would be asigned the ‘better’ referees in their matches - especially when facing each other and therefore, the need for VAR is less.

All Making Sense

If you take a less senior referee, the likelihood is that they are going to be assigned games such as Brighton vs Brentford, Newcastle vs Everton or Crystal Palace vs Fulham - no disrepsect to those six teams, but you get the idea.

Less senior referee, perhaps more of a need to have VAR pull them up and therefore, a higher decision tally.

Admittedly there is a slight generalisation as I do not have the referee data to back this up but that would be a logical explanation and I would like to think this is a very logical newsletter.

Just Farke Off

With each of the Premier League’s bottom three teams having already made managerial change this season (twice in the case of Nottingham Forest), there is now a hope if not an expectation that the trio of unlikely outfits in the bottom three soon work their way out of there.

Hope that seems realistic for West Ham and Nottingham Forest after slow starts for both Nuno Espirito Santo and Sean Dyche respectively. Hope that seems rather misplaced for Wolves’ new boss Rob Edwards.

Whether that hope is misplaced or not, the focus is not on these clubs for at least the next couple of weeks. For West Ham and Forest, there is a sense that they might just be heading in the right direction. For Wolves, it feels as if the damage is already done.

Therefore, the pressure will have to be applied elsewhere because that is the thing about the Premier League. The pressure does not just disappear, it has to go somewhere at any given time of the season.

The Form Guide

While a good indicator of where that pressure will transfer over to is the form guide but looking at it from the perspective where teams are out of form:

(Team rankings reflect form table not overall positions)

Take the three clubs mentioned out of the equation and who needs a win when the final international break of the year comes to an end.

The obvious candidates are Fulham and Leeds. Both Marco Silva and Daniel Farke are the names edging closest to the exit door right now, which of the two do you think will be pushed first?

If I had to decide I reckon it is Daniel Farke and although the Elland Road outfit have collected a point more than their Craven Cottage counterparts, the German is in that awkward position as a manager of a promoted side.

Marco Silva’s Fulham impressed at times last season, that in itself has handed the Portuguese coach slightly more credit than that of Daniel Farke and if any promoted side is hovering close to the relegation zone, that side’s owners are going to get jittery.

Compare them to high-flying Sunderland and any talk of Regis Le Bris being under any form of managerial pressure right now would be ludicrous. The Black Cats performing well above expectation, all is well at the Stadium of Light.

All is not well in West Yorkshire though with just one league in Leeds’ last six attempts and with their attack averaging a goal a game, their defence averaging 2.16 against at the other end is their biggest concern right now.

The kind of form at the time of year where the talk of firefighters being deployed starts to get louder of volume. Leeds may want to twist in terms of managerial option but at the same time, who would they twist to?

David Moyes at Everton
Sean Dyche at Nottingham Forest
Ange Postecoglou damaged stock

Where else could you turn in a bid to stay up?

What about someone like Ralph Hasenhuttl?

Why him you ask?

Red Bull Gives You Wins

With Leeds having the Red Bull logo front and centre on their shirt, Hasenhuttl knows the Red Bull football structure very well having been the manager of RB Leipzig from 2016 to 2018.

Not only that but Hasenhuttl also knows the Premier League inside out. Not much would have changed since his Southampton stint from December 2018 came to an end three years ago this month.

Further to that, Leeds have utilised the RB coaching pipeline in the past. Jesse Marsch coming from RB Salzburg before he pitched up at Elland Road - it is a route they have taken in the past, it is a route that may increase their chances of keeping them in the division.

Do you think Leeds will change managers soon? Do you think it will be Ralph or somebody else? Let me know in the comments or via email.

Opening The Mailbox

In the previous issue I made the suggestion that Eddie Howe could be the England manager within the next 12 months. An opinion so RED HOT, that it actually lost me a subscriber!

However, another subscriber was kind enough to email in after reading the issue and had this to say:

You see, Ross isn’t even English and he understands what a smart switch this would be. (Thanks Ross).

Ultimately, if this needs to happen, there needs to be some form of checklist:

• Newcastle to not finish in the top 10

• Newcastle to not win any silverware

• Newcastle to go out of the Champions League at the R16 stage.

If all those three elements are ticked off, then the Howe to England campaign that is seemingly uniting both sides of Hadrian’s Wall will start to pick up steam. Ross has his £10 ready, anyone else prepared to put their money where their mouth is?

The Filter Five

Five sprints up the touchline to keep you warm

Norway Almost There

Norway look set to return to the World Cup scene after an absence of 28 years. Mathematically they still need to get over the line, in football terms it would take an absolutely ludicrous collapse against Italy in midweek for them to be stopped.

The Norwegians’ previous golden era was back in the 1990s when they qualified for both the 1994 and the 1998 World Cups and with Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard leading the current era, it is going to be fascinating to see what they can do in North America.

Out Of Africa

Cameroon will not be one of those 48 teams after they lost their CAF qualification play-off semi-final to DR Congo. Another nation that where a household name in the 1990s thanks to the likes of Roger Milla but a 1-0 defeat after Chancel Mbemba’s late goal, means the end of the road for Indomitable Lions.

While the same status is attached to Gabon after their 4-1 defeat to Nigeria. No World Cup finals for Pierre-Emerick Aubemayang after Thursday’s defeat in the neutral venue of Morocco.

A clash that was taken to extra time when a late Mario Lemina leveller wiped out Nigeria’s opener. Fast forward 30 minutes and a double from Victor Oshimen helped wipe out Gabon from the tournament.

DR Congo and Nigeria now face off on Sunday for the chance to enter the inter-continental playoffs. Oh no, they are not done yet. Far from it.

Playing Devils Advocaat

Jetting round to Concacaf now and the biggest story out of the host confederation is that of Curacao edging close to a first ever qualification to the World Cup finals and if they do, they will be the smallest nation to have ever done so.

Managed by Dutch coaching legend Dick Advocaat, they have taken advantage of player naturalisation rules to give Netherlands players international caps (similar to how Cape Verde have done for Portuguese players).

Still, they have done so to huge benefit and a draw against Steve McLaren’s Jamaica (honestly, what world do we live in?) would see little old Curacao earn their invite to the biggest party in the world.

3Up and 3Down

National League games will start at 3:03 tomorrow. Not because of a shortage of good quality clocks but because of their bid to place further spotlight on their bid for three teams to be promoted to the EFL.

Currently only the winners of the division win promotion automatically to League Two with another berth decided through a six-team playoff tournament and the National League say this no longer good enough.

With the league being all but professional, there is a bottleneck of teams trying to get out of the league and if there was freer movement between the fourth and fifth tiers of the English football pyramid, those who suffer relegation from League Two would find it easier to then get back it in.

Only problem, the EFL clubs do not see it like that, they just see the threat of the trapdoor looming and would rather bolt it closed, than open it up further. Self preservation at its best.

Fantasy Stuff

International break so now FPL deadline to worry about this weekend (thankfully)

Admin

Right, that’s the end of issue 48 as word continues to spread around the football world.

If you liked issue 48, tell a friend and forward it on. If you didn’t like issue 4 please tell me why.

We are now on the path to 150 subscribers. Thanks to everyone who has signed up to date, new squad members are always welcome.

Send your thoughts in, not only of the newsletter but of the game itself. It’s all about building a community you see. Have a great week. Back on Tuesday for Issue 49.

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