Issue 44 - The Pressure Measure

Who is feeling the pressure in the Premier League? Who needs a win more than anyone else right now? Measure, metrics, it all boils down to those who perform on the pitch. Ready for another weekend of sport’s greatest drama? Issue 44. Go.

Before this issue gets underway properly, I just want to mention that we have surged past 100 subscribers in the past week. A milestone that I did not expect when I started just five months ago. Huge thanks to everyone who is part of the squad already, the community is building week to week. On to the next 100 subs and beyond!

Letting Off Steam

For those who are regular readers of the Real Football Filter, you will be aware of the Premier League Managers Under Pressure Rankings or #PLMUPR for short.

For those, who are new to these surroundings, its the attempt to measure managerial pressure within in the Premier League. There’s no real metrics behind it (at least not yet - it is a work in progress behind the scenes), more of a feeling that changes with every result.

Some managers under pressure have already got the chop. Potter, Postecoglou. You get the idea. Others may be a long way from their marching orders but seriously feeling the heat right now.

The latter status is precisely what Arne Slot finds himself in and this is probably the perfect example of when I previously referenced that being the most under pressure is not a direct correlation to being the next man out of the door.

When we take into account the amount of credit the Dutchman has at Anfield - even if his savings have taken an unbelievable dent over the past few weeks, to suggest that Liverpool will be looking for a new manager this side of Christmas is nothing short of insane.

Then again, the Merseyside men have been on an insanely poor run of results. A run that was extended to four league defeats last Saturday, a run that was then lengthened to six losses out of seven in all competitions in midweek.

Losing Their Fizz

That Carabao Cup reverse to Crystal Palace looked on the cards by the time the staring eleven was announced an hour or so before kickoff. Defeat itself may not be the worst outcome in the long run but short term, the optics of another loss would not have helped.

A starting eleven and eventual performance that added further pressure to the shoulders of Slot but if the defending league champions finally return to winning ways at home to Aston Villa on Saturday, will anyone really care about their Carabao Cup exit.

Win in the league and it can be considered for the greater good. No need to worry about competing on all fronts, focus on the more important and although every game is important for Liverpool, some are obviously more important than others.

Which brings us back to the measure of pressure in the Premier League.

According to betting markets, you can get 8/1 on Slot being the next manager to exit a Premier League club - an 11.1% probability of a P45 being handed out in the red half of Merseyside.

The only shorter price that can be found is that of Vitor Pereira at Wolves. The Portuguese head coach is odds on at 4/7 - a near banker with a 63.6% probability of going before Slot.

However, would you say that Pereira is the Premier League manager under the most pressure right now? I would not. I say he was second but I think the relative fall from grace at Liverpool is the greater cause for concern.

Then again, the beauty about pressure is that it can be eased in an instant. If Liverpool get the better of Aston Villa and Wolves can get the better of an ailing Fulham this weekend, a new target moves to the top of the list.

For those who are interested, these are the latest #PLMUPR

1. Arne Slot

2. Vitor Pereira

3. Nuno Espirito Santo - Not suggesting managerial change or anything like that, but there is no doubt he needs to find a win for his new employers.

Do you agree. Let me know via the email at the bottom of the page…

Ten Quick Tackles

A look at the main talking points as we head into the upcoming Premier League weekend.

Brighton vs Leeds

No Friday night or Saturday lunchtime action this weekend, so Premier League fans will have to wait until the traditional 3pm slot for the latest episode of this sporting soap opera. One of those clashes takes us to East Sussex as Brighton look to return to winning ways.

Something that they should be capable of acheiving when looking at their home record this season. Four played, two wins and two draws before the visit of Leeds this weekend. Daniel Farke’s men have won just once on the road - their 3-1 win over basement outfit Wolves more than a month ago.

Burnley vs Arsenal

After getting the better of Wolves last Sunday, Burnley have placed a nice points cushion between themselves and the bottom three. However, all that padding will be needed when league leaders Arsenal visit Turf Moor on Saturday. Scott Parker’s men have earned back-to-back league wins, a third successive victory would be a huge feat for the Clarets.

Especially as Mikel Arteta’s men arrive in Lancashire having won each of their last four league games. In addition to this, they are unbeaten in all of their last six and have only conceded three goals all season. It may not be the prettiest but it is the most effective brand of football right now.

Crystal Palace vs Brentford

Crystal Palace have failed to win any of their last three league outings - earning just a single point from the nine on offer and will be keen to return to winning ways on Saturday when they host Brentford. The Eagles have had their wins clipped lately (pun intended), but will be boosted by their midweek rout of Liverpool in the League Cup.

While they and opponents Brentford obviously share something in common and that is getting the better of Arne Slot’s side in the last seven days. The Bees are buzzing under Keith Andrews with three league wins from their last four and although they are stronger at home, they will fancy their chances for this short trip across the capital.

Fulham vs Wolves

Maybe not quite worthy of six-pointer status but there is no understating of the importance of Saturday’s meeting at Craven Cottage between Fulham and Wolves. The hosts are outside the bottom three for now, but current form indicates they cannot continue to keep swimming against the tide.

If they can get the better of Wolves, it puts nine points between the two clubs and adds another pertinent question of the already maligned Vitor Pereira. If he can lead his Molineux charges to a first league win of the season, then the questions will surely be asked of his compatriot instead.

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United

Heard the one about the fan who is not cutting his hair until Manchester United win five games in a row? You must have surely heard about that by now. Heard his Red Devils are going up against Sean Dyche in the search for a fourth successive win. What can possibly go wrong?

Nottingham Forest’s first league showing under Dyche saw them suffer defeat at the hands and the home of Bournemouth. However, the City Ground has paid witness to Europa League success. Can a first league showing at home, derail an upcoming trip to the barbe shop?

Tottenham vs Chelsea

Never rely on Tottenham. Even less when it is your birthday. A rather meek showing by Thomas Frank’s men in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday. So far removed from their professional display at Everton in the league just a few days before. One step forward and one step back in this new Spurs chapter.

The next page of which is crafted on Saturday evening as Chelsea travel from West to North London and they will be keen to get last weekend’s reverse at home to Sunderland out of their system. Another outfit that seems to be caught between forward and backward motion in equal measures, will the two opposing forces cancel each other out in N17?

Liverpool vs Aston Villa

Referenced at the top of the article regarding pressure, so it makes more sense to reference the next week or so for Arne Slot. Not only is it the visit of Aston Villa on Saturday but then its Real Madrid in midweek, followed by a trip to Manchester City next week. What are we going to learn about the potentially outgoing champions in that space of time.

A week is a long time in football and it is less than a week since Aston Villa made it four successive league wins at the expense of Manchester City. Unai Emery’s men are arguably the one team you do not want to meet right now due to them playing with an abundance of confidence. If they make it five wins a row, they will go above Liverpool in the table.

West Ham vs Newcastle

If there is one thing that Nuno Espirito Santo should be doing in training this week, it is set pieces. Time after time, the Hammers have been nailed into the ground by high-flying balls by the opposition. The East London outfit have conceded the most goals in the division (20), at an average of 2.22 per game. You never want to exceed more than two goals against per game. That usually means relegation in May.

As for opponents Newcastle, they have already got the better of two London outfits at St James’ in the past week and will fancy their chances of completing the treble this weekend. Eddie Howe’s men have not travelled the best this season but failure to earn three points at West Ham, will surely feel like at least two points dropped.

Manchester City vs Bournemouth

One of these two teams are the closest challenger to Arsenal right now, the other is Manchester City. Bournemouth currently the best of the rest for the latest Premier League fixtures get underway, a sentence that feels more natural every time it is logged somewhere on the internet.

They travel to a Manchester City side who gave up their rights to be on Arsenal’s coat tails after defeat at Aston Villa last weekend. Their margin of error to the Gunners sits at six before Saturday. It could be nine by the end of it. I would not necessarily overlook Bournemouth here either and to be honest, why would you?

Sunderland vs Everton

The final clash of this Premier League long weekend takes us to the Stadium of Light as Sunderland welcome Everton. The Black Cats with the surprise result of last weekend when beating Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, it would be a surprise if they do not get something at home to Everton - especially after earning 10 points from 12 at home.

As for opponents Everton, they will look to put their 3-0 home defeat to Tottenham behind them and they will have to as soon as possible. After a bright start, the mood has faded slightly thanks to just one win in their last six. No obvious panic from David Moyes just yet, but their issue regarding regular goals cannot be seen to be a long-term one.

Predictive Power

They are the main takeaways but what are the main outputs from my AI predictive model?

Four results right last week, AI might be sacked in the morning if this lousy form continues….

What do you think the scores will be this weekend. Can you beat AI? Let me know in the comments below.

The Filter Five

Five shorter football snippets before the weekend truly begins

True Fan Power

Huge credit goes to Sheffield Wednesday supporters who have kept the tills ringing these past seven days. A huge influx of supporter cash has meant playing and non-playing staff have been payed in full a day early - all while in administration.

Take that Dejphon Chansiri. Never underestimate your fanbase. Or what was your fanbase.

Some Cup Romance

The Road to Wembley becomes slightly shorter this weekend as the First Round proper gets underway. No replays because we need the Club World Cup and a bigger Champions League but at least the competition is still in operation.

More of it behind the TNT paywall - a shame after last season’s incredible finale and although you will still get coverage on BBC Sport, it does feel like it has already lost importance since Crystal Palace’s famous win in May.

Going Further North

Hearts’ lead at the top cut to six points but they play in the league this weekend where Celtic don’t. An opportunity to increase the margin to nine (albeit having played a game more) while the Hoops have to entertain Rangers in League Cup semi-final duty.

A Celtic vs Rangers clash that has Martin O’Neill and Danny Rohl in opposing dugouts. A phrase that would have sounded ludicrous at the start of the season.

AC-Hell

No not news about AC Milan but another ACL injury within the top level of women’s football. Michelle Agyemang the latest to suffer such a terrible blow and joining the long list of starts who suffered this type of ailment.

It cannot be a coincidence that so many elite women players suffer from ACL damage but I cannot find the proof as to why (anyone better educated want to raise their hands?)

Fantasy Stuff

FPL deadline is 13:30 Saturday afternoon (UK time). That’s lie-in territory. Although I must have been sleeping when I left Micky van de Ven on my bench last week (23 points - OUCH).

Admin

Right, that’s the end of issue 44 as word continues to spread around the football world.

If you liked issue 44, tell a friend and forward it on. If you didn’t like issue 44 please tell me why.

We are now edging towards 125 subs as the momentum continues at a huge pace. 50% of all new subscribers have come in October alone - new squad members are always welcome on board.

Send your thoughts in, not only of the newsletter but of the game itself. It’s all about building a community you see. Have a great weekend.

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