Issue 42 - Under Our Expectation

If football was an all you can eat buffet, you would need a big lie down after a midweek of European action. A quick look at that. A bigger look at the weekend and a spotlight shone on those who waste their chances. Goals, goals, goals in Issue 42. Go.

A Goal Feast

71 Goals - One Wild Week in the Champions League

If the Champions League is the pinnacle of European club football, it is certainly living up to its top billing over the past couple of nights. 18 fixtures contested by the continent’s elite, three of those ended in bore draws.

Take them out of the equation and this is where things start to get very interesting and in the 15 games in which at least a goal was scored, a total of 71 efforts. Yes, 71! would breach an opposition defence.

An absolutely ludicrous average of 4.73 goals per game. Per game!

That’s more than over 4.5 goals for all you betting fans - roughly 7/2 in bookmaker odds.

Arguably the most entertaining midweek programme since the introduction of the league phase and although some still have doubts over the change of format, you cannot argue with the entertainment that we have seen on both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Entertainment which UEFA are looking to cash in on when they sell their next set of rights and if the goals keep coming, the TV deals will be worth every billion of pounds is set to be spent on the competition.

Those Who Underperform

Time to return to the world of xG now and last Friday I dug deep into the players who are overperforming their expectation in front of goal.

And for those new subscribers in the past seven days (welcome), here is how we measure xG when it comes to player performance:

Let’s say Erling Haaland has scored nine league goals and his xG is only 7.4, it means he is outperforming his output by 1.6 goals. This is GOOD.

Let’s say Viktor Gyokeres has scored one league goals and his xG is 3.2, it means he is underperforming his output by 2.2 goals. This is BAD.

Issue 40, shone the light on the overperformers. Issue 42 is looking at those who are doing the opposite.

(Criteria must be a Premier League forward - midfielders and defenders would distort the picture too much)

Somewhat surprisingly, it is Jean-Philippe Mateta who is the biggest underperformer when it comes to the number of goals scored versus what is expected of them. The Eagle may have scored five times in the Premier League (three in one game), he should be touching closer to eight.

The French forward has had 13 shots on target (SOT) this season already, meaning he needs 2.6 of those to score a goal on average. To dig even deeper, he has 26 shots in total. Meaning he needs 5.2 efforts of any kind to get on the scoresheet.

There is absolutely no doubt that Mateta is a handful - Bournemouth defenders will confirm this after their trip to Selhurst Park. Imagine how high Palace would be up the table, if Mateta was even more lethal with his finishing.

Then again, at least the Palace talisman is scoring goals. Everton’s Beto has only scored a single goal this season. The shots he has got away have generated 3.4 worth of xG - a debt of 2.4 goals.

Third in the list in Anthony Gordon who is yet to find the net and of the chances he has had, he should have been 1.3 goals better off. Enough to put him ahead of Brentford’s Kevin Schade and Brendan Aaronson in joint fourth.

Big Money Move

We all know about the Alexsander Isak saga that unfolded over the summer but did you know that he is the sixth worst performing forward when it comes to comparing goals against xG.

The Liverpool forward is yet to score in the Premier League for his new employers. He has also had just a solitary shot on target with an additional five failing to land between the posts.

These six efforts equate to a total of 0.9 xG and this means each of those efforts only have a 0.15 (15%) chance of seeing the Swede get on the scoresheet for Liverpool. Add his midweek injury to the equation and Liverpool’s return on investment is yet to show a yield.

Ten Quick Tackles

A look at the main talking points as we head into the upcoming Premier League weekend.

Leeds vs West Ham

This weekend’s Premier League action gets underway in just a few hours at Elland Road as Leeds play host to West Ham. Daniel Farke’s men lost to fellow promoted outfit Burnley last weekend, they can ill afford to go a fourth Premier League outing without picking up a win.

Then again, if their position is perilous you could say that things are worse for West Ham. They make the trip to West Yorkshire having not won any of their last five league outings, picking up a single point in the process. Nuno said his club are in a relegation battle on Monday, they may be in deeper problems before Saturday even begins.

Newcastle vs Fulham

Newcastle are back on home soil on Saturday and after making rather light work of Benfica in the Champions League in midweek, Eddie Howe’s men will look to earn a second successive league win at St James Park. It has certainly been a mixed bag for the Magpies this season, Saturday needs to be the start of a lengthy league unbeaten run.

They play host to a Fulham side who are not travelling well this season. Not well at all. Since a draw at Brighton on the opening weekend, Marco Silva’s men have lost their last three when on the road - saying that, they have also lost their last three in the league regardless of venue. They need to break the spell or this could spell trouble.

Chelsea vs Sunderland

The kids were certainly alright for Chelsea in midweek as they eased past Ajax in the Champions League and after such an assured performance from the young Blues, it will be interesting to see how many of those have managed to earn a place in the starting eleven at home to Sunderland.

One of those could be Marc Guiu who was a Sunderland loanee for about a week at the start of the season before being called back to Stamford Bridge. Then again, the Black Cats have hardly missed him this season. Sunderland’s last trip to London was a 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace, there would be no complaints if the same happened again here.

Manchester United vs Brighton

“Day X of not cutting my hair until Manchester United win five games in a row”. Well two down, three to go and after the hard work of Sunday’s win over Liverpool, the Red Devils now have to show that they can start to patch together something that looks like genuine consistency under manager Ruben Amorim.

Standing in their way of a third successive league win are a Brighton side that seem to enjoy coming to Old Trafford these past few seasons. The Seagulls are also four games unbeaten in the league at present. What price on Danny Welbeck scoring at the place where he started his career?

Brentford vs Liverpool

A hugely important win for Brentford on Monday but no time for them to relax with the defending champions in town on Saturday night. A fixture that Jordan Henderson will be relishing, as he gets to face the club where he won a Premier League title in 2020. What effect can the former Reds captain have for the Beest under the GTech floodlights?

While Liverpool’s crisis mode was slightly eased after their midweek mauling of Eintracht Frankfurt in the Champions League. Now, they have to use that as the springboard to spring back towards the top of the table. Three successive league defeats is unheard of at Anfield. Four and the sound of champagne corks may be popping in and around the Emirates.

Wolves vs Burnley

It feels like this is going to be one for the purists. Nailed on as last on Match of the Day (Sunday) as Wolves play host to Burnley. It may get low ranking in the televisual totem pole but at the same time, its importance towards the bottom of the table cannot be understated.

Defeat for Wolves and you really have to wonder whether the emergency cord is pulled when it comes to sits in the Molineux technical area. If that were the case and Burnley win, they would be eight points clear. Might be worth staying up until the end to watch this.

Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest

Bournemouth will certainly have a point to prove after dropping two last Saturday at Crystal Palace but they will focus on fresher legs in their bid to win all three against Nottingham Forest at the Vitality Stadium. Their opponents playing in Europe on Thursday, Andoni Iraola’s men would love the same opportunity next season.

While the Sean Dyche era is off to a fantastic start at Nottingham Forest after overseeing a Europa League win against FC Porto on Thursday. Signs of new manager bounce from the off but it is arguably of greater need on a domestic front. This team have not won a league game in seven. The hosts have not lost in the same number.

Arsenal vs Crystal Palace

League leaders Arsenal will have a keen eye on what happens in Brentford the night before but regardless of the outcome there, the focus will not divert too far from the task in front of them. The visit of Crystal Palace is not one to be underestimated even if the Gunners did snare of their Eagles’ key men over the course of the summer.

Crystal Palace make the short trip across the capital having lost to Lanarca in the European Conference League on Thursday. Manager Oliver Glasner said his players needed that outcome to “humble them” and if that is the case, will they have been humbled enough to derail Arsenal’s title bid at the Emirates

Aston Villa vs Manchester City

Aston Villa were also in European action on Thursday and like their Crystal Palace counterparts, they also fell to defeat. Go Ahead Eagles came from behind in the Netherlands to win 2-1, Unai Emery’s men once again showing a lack of ruthlessness - something that they thought they had rid themselves of after a sluggish start.

Then again, Villa have no time to be sluggish on Sunday as they welcome a Manchester City outfit with plenty of momentum behind them. Erling Haaland continuing his incredible scoring streak for club and country with the opener over Villarreal in midwewek. Just the warm up needed for another Premier League goal on Sunday.

Everton vs Tottenham

The final fixture of this Premier League weekend takes us to the blue half of Merseyside as Everton play host to Tottenham. Both sides lost their last Premier League outings but only one of them had the unenviable task of having to travel to the Etihad. The Toffees looking to bounce back and with the availability to call upon Jack Grealish once again.

As for Spurs, they travel north after avoiding a case of Monte Carlo or Bust on Wednesday night. Peppered with shots from all corners of the Monaco attack, Thomas Frank’s men managed to extend their unbeaten European record to 10 games in all competitions. More importantly, they need to restart their winning run to one in the league on Sunday.

Predictive Power

They are the main takeaways but what are the main outputs from my AI predictive model?

Only three results right last week, AI still in pre-season form. Let’s see what it has up its sleeve for the weekend:

What do you think the scores will be this weekend. Can you beat AI? Let me know in the comments below.

The Filter Five

Five shorter football snippets before the weekend truly begins

Time For Admin

A football club going into administration should not usually be celebrated but it feels like that is the case for as far as Sheffield Wednesday fans are concerned. Yes, they have been handed a 12-point deduction and almost certain relegation to League One.

But they are no longer owned by Dejphon Chansiri with the club being taken out of his hands. A club with a rich history should have no shortage of suitors to take them out of administration. Better times must surely be around the corner at Hillsborough.

Big Scottish Weekend

Scottish Premiership leaders Hearts play host to Celtic on Sunday. Their midday meeting at Tynecastle could be season defining. The gap is currently at five points between the two. If the gap gets any bigger, fans of Jam Tarts may believe that now really is the time.

Sent To Coventry

Is Frank Lampard a good championship manager? It seems so and it seems as if Coventry is the perfect job. In a bizarre world if Coventry could just win the second tier and not go up, the former Chelsea midfielder would be in work for as long as he wants.

The irony is that if Coventry continue their bright start to the season and get promoted to the Premier League, expectation rises, pressure comes with it and the eventual chop. Oh well, I guess that is a worry for further down the line.

No Rash Decisions

Marcus Rashford says he wants to stay at Barcelona after his loan spell ends. I think he and the Camp Nou outfit should try and nail down those talks as soon as possible.

Fantasy Stuff

FPL deadline is 18:30 this evening. Have you done your team in time?

Admin

Right, that’s the end of issue 42 as word continues to spread around the football world.

If you liked issue 42, tell a friend and forward it on. If you didn’t like issue 42 please tell me why.

We are now edging towards 80 subs as the momentum continues. New squad members are always welcome on board.

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