Issue 40 - The Autumn Statement

Exceeding Our Expectations

With the October international break firmly behind us, it is gives me the perfect opportunity to crunch some numbers and although the metric of xG splits opinion, this upcoming insight will either solidify or change yours.

The reason being is we are not going to look at who the top goalscorers are to date, instead we are going to look at the players who are outperforming their xG.

To simplify what I mean, it is time for some quick maths:

Let’s say Erling Haaland has scored nine league goals and his xG is only 7.4, it means he is outperforming his output by 1.6 goals. This is GOOD.

Let’s say Viktor Gyokeres has scored one league goals and his xG is 3.2, it means he is underperforming his output by 2.2 goals. This is BAD.

(xG examples are precisely that above, not looked at exact numbers)

With that in mind, lets now take a look at the five players who currently have the best overperformance in the Premier League.

Top of the shop is a surprising name and an instance where xG can sometimes be distorted and with Moises Caicedo’s three goals coming from an xG of just 0.5, his thunderstrike against Liverpool has done a lot of the heavy lifitng.

Had that been a tap in, it would have placed a far higher rating on his overall xG and driven the profit down. Therefore, we cannot always rely on screamers alone to paint the best statistical picture.

Which leads us to second in the chart and although Antoine Semenyo has also scored his fair share of stunning goals already this season, he has also recorded the highest number of goals of all our top five overperformers.

A reward of consistency and the ability to score difficult chances places him just behind Caicedo in the list with a current profit of 2.4 and if he can continue that across the season, Bournemouth could well be in buisness when it comes to Europe.

Semedo finds himself 0.2 goals ahead of Jarrod Bowen and although he has only scored three goals, the average xG for each of those efforts is 0.27. This means every time he has scored, there was just a 27% chance of him finding the net.

Bowen’s continuation of goals will be important in keeping West Ham clear of the drop zone and the same can be said for both Jaidon Anthony and Wilson Isidor for Burnley and Sunderland

The two promoted teams are having differing fortunes to their early survival bids but the overperformance of both Anthony and Isidor should not be overlooked. A profit of 1.9 and 1.8 goals respectively shows how important both these players will be.

Which also highlights just how important goals can be across the division, it is not always about the golden boot but also the golden ratio when compared to expectation and to put another angle on this, Issue 41 will look at the underperforming strikers to date.

Ten Quick Tackles

A look at the main talking points as we head into the upcoming Premier League weekend.

Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea

Ange survives the gauntlet of the October international break and now he has to reach November's checkpoint. A task made all the more difficult after a difficult run of results under his tenure. Yet to record a first win, Forest seem to be the poster boy for self-sabotage. That sabotage could be furthered with the help of Chelsea tomorrow lunchtime.

The Blues make the trip to Nottingham off the back of their recent late win at home to Liverpool and if anything, the international hiatus may have come at just the wrong time in terms of building momentum. If Enzo Maresca's men are to be part of the title race conversation, their voices must be heard at the City Ground.

Sunderland vs Wolves

With defeat to Manchester United before the break, Sunderland's bright start to the season has been dimmed ever so slightly. However, the visit of Wolves to the Stadium of Light may well give the Black Cats reason to shine again. Regis Le Bris’ men seem to save their best for a home crowd and another maximum return will further build their buffer from the bottom three.

Which is a group of clubs that Wolves would like to no longer be a part of and although they have got themselves in winning positions against both Tottenham and Brighton, failure to get over the line has left the Molinuex men on the wrong side of the dotted line. Still looking for a first league win of the season, Vitor Pereira knows the search cannot continue for much longer.

Brighton vs Newcastle

After snatching a draw at Wolves, Brighton will now look to extend their current unbeaten league run of three games. Five points from the last nine on offer, three more would help the Seagulls swoop further up the table. We have had a bit of everything from the East Sussex outfit thus far, overall performance being matched by current league placing.

Saturday sees them play host to a Newcastle side that have not yet found their groove on the road. Nick Woltemade certainly feels at home when at home, but this breed of Magpies is a different beast when away from St James Park. Because of this, you never quite know what this team will serve up. Will it be another cautious away performance or will the shackles come off on the coast?

Burnley vs Leeds

The last time Burnley welcomed a fellow promoted team through their Turf Moor doors, they managed a win over Sunderland and with Leeds coming to town, the same outcome would certainly be welcomed by Scott Parker. A Clarets side that was rock solid in the Championship last season has seen its cracks exposed early on. Not a huge shock but a huge area of improvement.

While if Leeds are to improve, game management may be the area that Daniel Farke needs to work on the most. Denied a win in the dying seconds at home to Bournemouth, on the back foot in a crucial phase against Tottenham the same venue, these margins are making life harder than it needs to be. Will they learn their lesson tomorrow?

Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth

Crystal Palace's lengthy unbeaten run gone before the international break and now they play host to the team with the current longest unbroken streak in the division. A couple of seasons ago, the Eagles at home to Bournemouth would be low down the totem pole when it comes to interest. Now, the stock of both clubs had risen considerably

To the point where Bournemouth and by extension manager Andoni Iraola will want to increase their stock further by making it seven league games unbeaten. I referenced the striking power of Antoine Semenyo earlier on and if it does continue, a January move will be front and centre at the transfer rumour mill.

Manchester City vs Everton

Are Manchester City legitimate title contenders? It sounds almost absurd that is questioned but there's something about this Etihad crop that does not necessarily scream champions - maybe it all rests on Rodri's fitness as the key criteria. It cost them last season, it could cost them this. At the same time, Erling Haaland is back to his robocop best to protect and serve Pep Guardiola and he will be keen to add to his goal tally at the expense of Everton.

Everton arrive in Manchester having ended Crystal Palace's unbeaten streak before the back and with manager David Moyes playing all the greatest hits from his coaching catalogue, the Toffees are no longer in the sticky situation that they found themselves under F. Lampard and S. Dyche. Easier on the eye than in season pasts, even the manager has a smile on his face

Fulham vs Arsenal

Arsenal's collection of old boys in West London get the chance to show what their collective former club are missing this weekend. A fixture that Bernd Leno, Alex Iwobi and Emile Smith Rowe will be keen to raise their game in a bid to spoil the Gunners’ good mood - one that comes with sitting top. Can Marco Silva's men act as spoilers or will they roll out the red carpet at Craven Cottage?

As for Mikel Arteta's men, this is where the run of fixtures get slightly easier. Already navigating clashes with Liverpool and Manchester City and although they only picked up a single point from the six offer, they still find themselves top of the table. Doing the business elsewhere means Arsenal are the business and now they will look to build as much of a margin of error as possible over both Liverpool and Manchester City.

Tottenham vs Aston Villa

How high can this Tottenham side go? Is a top 4/5 finish the benchmark for Spurs this season. Could they creep even higher?. There are a lot of exciting things coming out of North London in the post-Levy world and after getting the better of Leeds before the international break in a disciplined second half performance, that same discipline will need to be on show for 90 minutes when at home to Aston Villa on Sunday.

Aston Villa have seemingly awoken after taking the foot all equivalent of a night-nurse at the start of the campaign and after the West Midlands outfit picked up a home win against Burnley before the international break, it is now four league games unbeaten (eight points from the 12 on offer). When it comes to momentum in the Premier League, Villa are one of the few teams to possess it at present and with their visits to Tottenham always being entertaining because of a certain Matty Cash, Sunday should be no different.

Liverpool vs Manchester United

If there was one team that was glad to be handed an international break, then it must have been Liverpool. Three successive defeats is unheard territory under the tenure of Arne Slot and after sitting very pretty post-Arsenal, the Merseyside men are sitting rather uncomfortably. No goal from Isak, no positive contributions from Wirtz and Mo Salah has become Slow Salah since signing his new contract. Is this the first genuine blip in Liverpool's new era. We'll have the answer on Sunday.

As for the visitors, visiting is the one thing they have truly struggled with this season. Yet to win an away Premier League game since the start of the campaign, you can add their miserable EFL Cup showing at Grimsby to their crime sheet as well. In fairness to United, they are managing to pick up wins at Old Trafford but they are seemingly caught in a pattern of one step forward at home and one step back on the road. If they are to truly make progress under Ruben Amorim this pattern needs to be redrawn.

West Ham vs Brentford

A London derby that may increase in importance by the time Monday night comes around. Both West Ham and Brentford are in precarious positions before the weekend gets under way, they could be in greater jeopardy at the start of next week. There was little jeopardy created by the Hammers during their recent trip to Arsenal but in fairness, not a lot would have been expected. Now, the expectation is for new manager Nuno Espirito Santo to win a clash that will go a long to defining what West Ham do this season.

As for opponents Brentford, they make the cross-capital trip having been edged out by Manchester City before the international break. There was no doubt that Keith Andrews’ men made their opponents sweat at the GTech but perspiration alone does not convert into points. The Bees’ have buzzed as recently as the 3-1 home win over Manchester United and if they can find that level of performance at the London Stadium, they should make life difficult for the hosts.

Predictive Power

Now, a slight confession in that I forgot to upload my last set of predictions to the newsletter. Afterwards, the AI model ended up getting 7 out of 10 predictions correct. They are below in blue for full clarity.

The fact I am writing this and not a yacht, suggests I am yet to be rich and with that in mind:

Let’s see what it has forecast over the next few days:

What do you think will happen over the course of the Premier League weekend? Get in touch via the email at the bottom of the page.

The Filter Five

Five shorter football snippets before the weekend sponsored by LNER’s terrible wi-fi

The Entertainment Business

Challenge decision cards being trialled in the Under 20 FIFA World Cup. Yuck.

Rangers Manager - Take Three

Danny Rohl is the next person to turn down Rangers. Kevin Muscat, it’s yours if you want it.

Mister Tax Man

Sheffield Wednesday being hit with a winding up petition from HMRC. A bleak outlook at Hillsborough looking all the more bleak.

Love Of The Game

Jonjo Shelvey playing in third tier of UAE league football for £500 p/w. Fair play.

Fantasy Stuff

FPL deadline is 11:00 Saturday morning (UK time). Are you rebooting after the break or sticking with what you already have?

Admin

Right, that’s the end of issue 40 as word continues to spread around the football world.

If you liked issue 40, tell a friend and forward it on. If you didn’t like issue 40 please tell me why.

We are now edging towards 70 subs as the momentum continues. New squad members are always welcome on board.

Send your thoughts in, not only of the newsletter but of the game itself. It’s all about building a community you see.

[email protected]

Issue 40 will be out on Tuesday October 21st

Thanks for reading

Dan