Issue 31 - Returning To Action

The international break is over, and it’s time to get back to the chaos of domestic football. Issue 31 dives straight into ten quick tackles on the Premier League weekend ahead. I also take a closer look at plans to shake up the Championship playoffs, why UEFA’s latest decisions matter more than they seem, and even let the AI loose on this weekend’s predictions. Issue 31. Go.

Ten Quick Tackles

A look at the main talking points as we head into the upcoming Premier League weekend.

Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest

The Premier League season resumes at the Emirates and as Arsenal aim to bounce back from their narrow defeat to Liverpool before the international break, Nottingham Forest’s preparations will be overseen by Ange Postecoglou instead of Nuno Espirito Santo.

A quickfire managerial change at the City Ground but can that lead to quickfire benefits in terms of results? Personally, I love a bit of new manager bounce. Add the proxy war of Ange winning Spurs a trophy a few months ago and 7/1 for the away win is not the worst shout.

Newcastle vs Wolves

The holders of the ‘Crisis Baton’ playing host to the team that is currently sitting at the bottom of the Premier League table. Saturday at St James’ Park could be pivotal for Newcastle and Wolves - even if it ends up being for varying reasons.

The Magpies look to begin the post-Isak era with a Woltemade replacement (think of it as ready made) up top and if Eddie Howe’s men can finally start their season this weekend, it will only make the picture even bleaker at Molineux. Could the baton change possession?

Crystal Palace vs Sunderland

The biggest story attached to Crystal Palace before the international hiatus was Marc Guehi’s stalled move to Liverpool. Still in the Eagles’ nest until at least January, there was certainly no sign of him sulking for the Three Lions in midweek when scoring in Serbia.

His presence in defence will certainly be welcomed by manager Oliver Glasner but so would a second league win in successive games. They host a Sunderland side who have impressed at the Stadium of Light but were in uninspiring in their trip to Burnley.

Everton vs Aston Villa

Jack Grealish seems made for Everton but he was made at Aston Villa and with the two sides meeting each other on Saturday, it will be interesting to see what the temporary Toffee can achieve against his boyhood club. If he scores would it be muted celebrations?

While Aston Villa’s campaign has been rather muted to date with only one point from nine on the board. The loan arrivals of Harvey Elliott and Jadon Sancho need to add attacking impetus which is severly lacking to Unai Emery’s side. A big game ahead.

Fulham vs Leeds

A fortnight after Marco Silva’s blood pressure had peaked to near lethal levels at Stamford Bridge, the international break should have given the Fulham manager just enough time to finally get the grievances out of his system before the visit of Leeds on Saturday.

Daniel Farke’s men played out a bore draw at home to Newcastle later that same afternoon and have only scored one goal in 270 minutes of Premier League football. If a lack of goals and how to solve it is the question, Dominic Calvert-Lewin is not the answer.

Bournemouth vs Brighton

There may be higher profile derbies this weekend, but the clash between Bournemouth and Brighton is one that is usually easy on the eye. The Cherries return to the Vitality Stadium after picking up a 1-0 win over Tottenham - their second successive league win.

While Brighton also return to Premier League action having claimed a pre-break scalp and after coming from behind to beat Manchester City at The Amex, manager Fabian Hurzeler will be keen to see that comeback as the baseline level of performance going forward.

West Ham vs Tottenham

West Ham’s 3-0 win at Nottingham Forest eased the pressure on manager Graham Potter and inadvertedly played a role in claiming the first Premier League managerial scalp of the season. Now he leads the Hammers into their ‘cup final’ as Tottenham make the trip east.

They do so having seen their unbeaten start to the campaign blown out of the water at home to Bournemouth a fortnight ago but armed with not only Xavi Simons but Randall Kolo-Muani, manager Thomas Frank will be looking to bounce back in this London derby.

Brentford vs Chelsea

Another London derby to keep the Met Police busy this Saturday as Brentford play host to Chelsea at the GTech Community Stadium. Keith Andrews’ men looked like they were good for at least a point at Sunderland a fortnight ago. Somehow they left with none.

Brentford on three points from nine, Chelsea four points better off and starting this weekend lying second in the Premier League table. Are the Blues the real deal this season? A little too early to tell but a maximum haul in West London will help their case.

Burnley vs Liverpool

Scott Parker’s Burnley have the unenviable task of welcoming Liverpool to Turf Moor on Sunday. The Clarets were just seconds away from earning a point at Old Trafford in their last league outing before the break. The visit of Arne Slot’s men will surely be tougher.

Especially as the Reds have been the gold standard this season and with their 1-0 win over Arsenal, the leaders are the only club in the division to maintain a 100% record. Perhaps a week to early for Alexsander Isak but will they really need him at Turf Moor?

Manchester City vs Manchester United

Perhaps a little too early to say this fixture is do-or-die for Manchester City’s title hopes but if Liverpool pick up an expected win at Burnley just before kickoff at the Etihad, the latest edition of Manchester derby will see the already high stakes lifted even further.

City could be nine points behind Liverpool by the time they and crosstown rivals United go to war. If the gap stays at nine points at the final time whistle, it will be a damaging defeat for Pep Guardiola’s men but a hugely vital win for counterpart Ruben Amorim.

Now that we’ve looked at the weekend’s storylines, let’s see if AI can do any better than me at predicting the outcomes…

Predictive Power

Four out of 10 correct last week via my AI-led prediction model. A hit rate of 40% and a season average of 36.67%. AI is guessing. AI is not my friend.

Let’s see what it has forecast over the next few days:

Changing The Play-Offs

For those who follow the National League playoffs, you will know that the format is slightly different to that of the EFL.

For those who do not follow the National League playoffs, I will now explain what the difference is.

Whereas the EFL has a four team semi-final format, the National League opens up its playoff berths to six teams.

The top two seeded teams (2nd and 3rd) go through to the semi-finals, while 4th play 7th and 5th play 6th in one-leg eliminator rounds.

The two winners of the eliminator rounds then make up the rest of the standard semi-final format before the finalists and the eventual winner at Wembley is decided.

A format that the EFL really like the look at according to The Athletic and plans are reportedly in place to bring it into the Championship for as early as next season.

This would mean two things:

1) two more teams in the play-offs

2) in theory less dead rubbers in the section of the table between 10th to 14/15th

That is how the concept is being sold, but it could also mean this:

If we take last season’s Championship table as a working example:

It would Coventry playing Millwall and Bristol City playing Blackburn in one-off eliminators. The winner of these would then go on to face either Sheffield United or Sunderland in the semi’s.

Yes the door would be open to two more teams but what if Blackburn or Millwall got a late season surge of form and did the unthinkable. Yes, the Premier League door has opened to either of these sides after Wembley glory.

However, we already know that the gap between the Premier League and the Championship is an absolute chasm, how would a team that finishes 7th or 8th fare in the top tier?

A team that in this instance is 34 points off of an automatic promotion place. A team that does not really deserve to go up to the Premier League regardless of format.

Yes, the odds are unlikely but they are still something that you could bet on and if you are to rejig the playoffs and add two more teams, it needs to be 7th in the Championship and 17th in the Premier League.

If the 17th placed team does not win the playoffs, they also are relegated to the Championship. Any other outfit goes up. Even that is a little clumsy and something that the Premier League would vote for. Then again, I don’t think they wll be too keen on this concept either.

European Governing Body

A couple of key points to come out of UEFA’s latest meeting:

1) a long-term injured or ill player in the Champions League can be replaced up until Matchday 6 of the league phase.

2) No decision has been made on whether they support the concept of domestic league games beyond borders.

In answer to 1, good news if you are Mathys Tel as the Champions League door is maybe not shut after all. In answer to 2, the longer a consensus cannot be found, the more you worry it will eventually be given the green light. Watch this space.

The Filter Five

Is on holiday for the next week as I become the all-inclusive final boss.

Admin

Right, that’s the end of issue 31 as word continues to spread around the football world.

If you liked issue 31, tell a friend and forward it on. If you didn’t like issue 31 please tell me why.

As mentioned, I am on holiday now but I do not want to break the current 16 week publishing streak. I will do my very best to get some form of content out even if it ends up being a rail replacement level of service

[email protected]

Issue 32 will be out either Tuesday or Friday. Check your inboxes across the week.

Thanks for reading

Dan

Time To Share #AD

Do you want to get free shares worth up to £100?

Join Trading 212 Invest with my link, and we will both get free shares.

It really is that simple.

https://www.trading212.com/invite/17teXGd9Wh