Issue 21 - The Fast Starters

The Premier League kicks off next week and the first five games can make or break a season. I’ve crunched the numbers from the last 10 years to reveal which teams hit the ground running… and which start with a stumble. Issue 21, let’s go!

Your First Five

This time next week the wait will finally be over. A new Premier League season begins, the next block of nine-month soap opera gets underway and each of the 20 teams involved will want to get off to the best possible start.

Not only will they want to get off to the best possible start but they will also want to continue the momentum that they find in the opening week of the campaign. This means that although any game can be as important as the other, the first five are even more so.

Which led me to think: how do teams perform in their first five league outings?

A thought which led me to crunch a lot of numbers from the past 10 complete Premier League season and provide a dataset to those who are curious.

By taking the 20 teams that are part of the class of 2025/26, I’ve looked at how each have performed during their time in the top tier during the past decade. Some are permanent members, some only pop in from time to time.

Whether they have played the full set of 50 matches since 2015/16 (first five per season) or just creeped into double figures, we are now going to try and make sense of it all.

Before the numbers are broken into pieces, a very quick breakdown of the logic.

METHODOLOGY

Data is taken for each club’s first five Premier League games of the season.

However, fixture pattern does not always follow the logical order of 10 games per gameweek.

Therefore, if for example, there was an occasion where Manchester United played Tottenham and it was the hosts’ sixth game of the season but the visitors fourth, only the visitor’s data would be collected as United have already played their first five.

In doing this, it avoids any potential for double counting and mucking up the data.

Ok, so now the rules are in place….

DATA DRIVEN INSIGHTS

Top Of The Table

First, we can see that Manchester City have the best hit rate in terms of wins by percentage in their opening five matches. Out of the maximum of 50 games played, Pep Guardiola’s men have won 39 - giving them a 78% success rate.

That statisitic in itself is not a huge surprise but the margin between City and the next team in the list arguably is. Arne Slot may have won the title in his first season as Liverpool boss but the Reds have perhaps been guilty of dropping points at times.

14 points less that their Etihad rivals, a whole 10% less in terms of win rate when it comes to their first 50 opening games of the season (first five). Five wins worse off than City and also a further draw behind.

While if we look at the ‘big six’ as a whole, we can see that they lock out each of the top half dozen positions in the Fast Starters table. Arsenal have won 60% of their maximum rate, 4% more than that of Manchester United, 8% more than Chelsea.

Which leaves Tottenham bringing up the rear in terms of the ‘big six’ picture. The white half of North London have also played the maximum quota of 50 games in our data, they have however won only 25.

The Other Fourteen

If we take those top six as a sample, it offers insight but it does not really offer anything in the way of wow factor or statistical silver bullet. For the real gems to appear within the data, we have to move further down the ladder.

Which does not make good reading if you are a Newcastle supporter and after already being handed the possession of this season’s Crisis Baton (see previous issue), they also have an incredibly poor record when it comes to season starts.

They have missed out on just one Premier League campaign in the past 10 seasons, this means a total of 45 games and of those, the Magpies have picked up 12 wins for their troubles at a win rate of 26.67%.

Admittedly, there will be some element of legacy tax on this and it is not really a reflection on Eddie Howe’s current crop. At the same time, it may be a reason to be fearful in the opening weeks of this season.

Adding Further Context

To put this into further context, Newcastle have the same early win percentage as that of Leeds. However, at Elland Road the numbers come from a slightly different position and this is due to playing just 15 games of the possible maximum 50.

15 games and only four of those have ended up as victories for the West Yorkshire. It may not be the best hit rate but it would at least keep them out of the bottom three if the Premier League was ranked on this metric alone.

Which also allows us to compare Leeds against their fellow promoted counterparts and with Burnley sitting second bottom of the list with a win rate of just 11.43% (four wins from 35 attempts), they will need to get ahead of curve under Scott Parker.

Then again, things could be a lot worse. You could be a Sunderland supporter who has not seen a first five win in any of the last 10 Premier League seasons. Admittedly, the Black Cats have only played two campaigns but they are seemingly out of luck.

The Permanent Members

As referenced above, we know that the ‘big six’ have managed to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the division but what about the other clubs that have appeared in each of the past 10 Premier League seasons.

By and large Everton have been pretty solid early on, it is just when they get into deepest Autumn do things start to go wrong on the blue half of Merseyside. The Toffees have picked up 17 wins from 50, a strike rate of 34.00%

The exact same number of wins as West Ham and this is where the two teams’ similarities come to an end. Whereas the Hammers can be known to start the season’s off pretty well, they have also been known to grind out points when needed.

17 wins but also nine draws to go with it. 26 games where defeat has been avoided by the East London outfit. A loss percentage rate of 48% gives dictates that history has not been too bad but what about the present season?

The same question might need to be asked of Crystal Palace and although they are impatiently waiting for the outcome of their Europa League appeal, they may also be waiting for some early season victories.

Looking at their first five games across the past 10 seasons, the Eagles have won 15 - a success rate of 30% and similar to West Ham, they can also grind out points where needed. 11 additional draws also means an overall loss rate of 48%.

What It Means

Like with many football stats in the current climate, the question is “what can this do for me?” Rather than being punched with an assualt of numbers on screen, the aim is for people to take these insights away and use them to their own good.

How would they be used in this instance?

Betting would be a good reference point (without trying to turn this into a tipping newsletter) but with this data, you may think twice about backing a team if you know that they largely get off to a sluggish start. What you think is ‘value’ may be incorrect.

At the same time, this could also be a great edge for your FPL teams. For example, if you know Brighton can handle their own in the first five weeks of the season, you may be inclined to find a difference in your team compared to your rivals.

Conclusion

This will hopefully be the first of many data dives that I can start to build within the newsletter - if there is any that you feel may be interesting, give me a shout through the usual channels and your ideas may also be implemented throughout the season.

The Filter Five

Five quickfire football thoughts before the weekend

Sorry Nic Jackson

Chelsea have announced their decision to allow striker Nicolas Jackson to leave the club. Does he go to Newcastle in their bid to finally get a striker? Does he make a move across the capital to Tottenham?

Two potential destinations but with the Magpies’ approach to recruitment becoming a mixture of scattergun and almost desperate and Chelsea not willing to do business with their London rivals, both these move could be a non-starter.

More At Moor

The Chelsea pipeline of talent has been pumping its way to Burnley over the past few days and with the Clarets’ capturing Lesley Ugochukwu a few days previous, they have now added fellow Blue Armando Broja to their ranks.

A signing that does not necessarily get pulses racing in Lancashire but it will certainly put a smile on the faces of Chelsea’s accountants. They have now recouped £250m worth of academy sales in three years. I hate to say it, but maybe their model is working.

Everyone Forgetting Fulham

I mentioned in Issue 18 - The Main Narratives that Fulham have to be careful not to sleepwalk into this new Premier League season. A solid showing last time is not on that allows Marco Silva and his players to rest on their laurels.

However, the Cottagers have spent just £400k at the time of writing and although there are still three weeks of this transfer window left for business to be conducted, nobody has seemingly told the Khan Family that the actual season starts next weekend.

In The Community

The Community Shield takes place this weekend as Crystal Palace and Liverpool face off in the season’s curtain raiser. It should be a cause for mutual celebration but there will obviously be an element of mutual disappointment.

Palace because of the mess that comes with multi-club owners, Liverpool because they are still dealing with the trauma that comes with the loss of Diogo Jota. Of course, these two events are nowhere near comparable but it will be good to see football as the focus once again.

Into Championship Mode

More of a comment than news really but after the EFL season got underway last week with League 1 and 2 action, I have come to the conclusion that the coverage is too bland for my liking.

Everything just feels to nice. Every pundit playing it safe, not wanting to step out of line before getting a call to the Premier League gig. Admittedly, they do not look for social clips but it just feels so dry. Anyway the Birmingham game has just got started….

Admin

Right, that’s the end of issue 21 as we edge closer to a new Premier League season

If you liked issue 21, tell a friend. If you didn’t like issue 21 don’t.

Also, continual feedback is certainly going to help drive this forward.

Feel free to email me to tell me what you like and what you did not.

[email protected]

Issue 21 will be out on Tuesday August 12th

Thanks for reading

Dan