Issue 13 - Swedish Front Mafia

Transfers are heating up. Newcastle land a new star. Arsenal might be overpaying. And a Swedish striker's goal tally gets converted into GBP. Welcome to Issue 13 of The Real Football Filter.

Nottingham To Newcastle

Although there was a flurry of June business when the transfer window temporarily opened, the July portion has not felt as active in terms of player transition. However, deals in the past couple of days suggest that things are now starting to pick up.

Especially from a Newcastle perspective and with them already using their Sam Fender-sized promotional trump card, they have finally turned their attention to landing a major signing.

The man in question is Anthony Elanga, the fee is reportedly £55m and after a successful season for Nottingham Forest, the Swedish international was always going to be in the summer shop window.

A season that helped Forest make a long awaited and unexpected return to European football and with Elanga making 17 goal contributions - six goals and 11 assists, the 23-year-old’s contribution was a major factor in the recent good times at the City Ground.

Unfortunately, Forest’s failure to qualify for the Champions League was always going to place their best talents as open to offer but does this mean Elanga is being purchased off the back of one single good season?

When buying a player who is hot, there is always an element of risk attached but whereas talent can be purchased off the back of a solid international tournament showing which is seven games at most, a 38-game spread is able to offer a lot more insight.

Insight that certainly shows just how good Elanga’s campaign was and with the right wing position being one that Newcastle fans often wonder how it can be improved, this likely arrival is set to finally answer the question.

A front three of Gordon, Isak and Elanga is not only two/thirds Swedish but a very interesting prospect. Add the backup (or players with a reason to start themselves) that comes in the form of Harvey Barnes and Jacob Murphy and the only component they may be lacking is a bonafide deputy to their current talisman.

With Callum Wilson calling time on his Newcastle tenure - it will be interesting to see if the Magpies board try and recruit for what is arguably the hardest role in any squad or whether they feel William Osuna has enough to make the step to number two at number nine.

That part of the puzzle is still to be solved but the chase to land the services of Anthony Elanga is edging closer by the hour and although Newcastle fans have been impatient in their wish for a major summer capture, their wait looks set to be worth it.

Gimme Gimme Gimme A Striker

Another player who has been on the radar of many clubs in recent months is Viktor Gyokeres and with the developments of the past few days, it looks as if Arsenal could be sending the strongest single of the lot.

The Swedish international has been lighting up the Portuguese top tier and his 39 goals would have played a substantial part in Sporting once again winning Liga Portugal just a few weeks ago.

39 goals in 33 2024/25 league appearances (two of those as a substitute) means an average of 1.18 goals per Portuguese league game - a phenomenal record regardless of the league it is in.

Then again, what are those 39 goals worth in the Premier League. What if we could exchange one for another in terms of output. What would be the target for Gyokeres to deliver at Arsenal?

Thankfully, I’ve already built the bones of a model for this and it compares the value of league goals across Europe.

Therefore, if we were to say that a Liga Portugal goal is worth 0.582 Premier League goals as per my goal model, it means last season’s return for Sporting is worth 22 goals for a club such as Arsenal.

0.582 as the exchange rate and because I am feeling generous, I will shave that down to a simple 0.500.

This means a return of 19 Premier League goals for Gyokeres if he was to complete a move to Arsenal. A benchmark has been set and although there can easily be a number of caveats attached to it (lack of minutes, injury as examples), we can get a guage of what he might be able to do.

Would those 19 goals be the difference between finishing second for the fourth season in a row and winning the title under Mikel Arteta? The answer is not as simple as a binary yes or no.

If you were to look at last season’s standings and the goals scored by Liverpool and Arsenal, you would see a 17-goal deficit in the favour of Arne Slot’s men. However, it is not as simple as just adding 19 goals to Arsenal’s tally and saying job done.

Gyokeres’ 19 goals would not be a simple addition to an existing tally they would have to be one of the sum of its parts. A sum that is set to be north of £60m but a sum that could be worth every penny if the maths are correct.

The Filter Five

Can we have another five talking points? Yes. Yes you can.

Van Wilder - Leicester Liasion

With the strange timing regarding Leicester’s sacking of Ruud Van Nistelrooy, they now do not have a great amount of time when it comes to sourcing his replacement. The new EFL season is just over a month ago and there is no new king at the King Power.

That said, the process to name a new manager has begun and Chris Wilder is reportedly in the frame for the job. The man knows the division well after securing promotion with Sheffield United in his first stint and then missing out in the playoffs at the end of his second.

Then again, he knows the division well with Sheffield United and his time with Middlesbrough did not hit the same high notes. Add the fact that the Foxes could be due a points deduction and this potential appointment may not have the desired bite.

Free Premier League On Your Telly

Wishful thinking? Probably. However, it will not stop the Lib Dems asking the question within the confines of UK parliament and with the yellow party asking for 10 games to be shown for free per season, they hope their request soon comes to a vote.

One that would be part of the independent football regulator bill that is continually gets kicked about the House of Commons and although the idea of free top tier football is an honourable one, the execution could be far more difficult.

With the new TV deal set to begin in just a few weeks, 70% of all Premier League games per season are going to be shown by Sky or TNT. Therefore, the eighth-choice fixture would be the first starting point for someone such as the BBC or ITV to show.

Do we really want to see Fulham vs Sunderland for free? Does the country really need this? No. no it does not. End debate.

Musiala Major Injury

Much has been made of the riches that will be handed out to European clubs participating in the Club World Cup and although Bayern Munich are one of the outfits that will have their bank balance swelled, it now comes at considerable cost.

The injury to Jamal Musiala will not have been as a direct cause of player overload as a consequence of additional summer football but with his absence set to be anywhere from six to nine months, the Bayern higher-ups will be asking themselves if this trip to the United States was really worth the bother.

Champions Versus Champions

England’s defence of the Women’s European Champions got off to a difficult start at the weekend and after suffering a 2-1 defeat to France on Saturday, there is a real sense of jeopardy going into their clash with the Netherlands on Wednesday.

Their Dutch counterparts won the 2017 edition of the competition and in just over 24 hours from the time of writing, the last two champions will square off. Should England lose and France also pick up a win over Wales, then the Lionesses will be out at the earliest juncture possible. High stakes indeed for Sarina Wiegman and her players.

Kudus To Levy

It has been reported that Tottenham are prepared to bid £60m to land the services of Mohammed Kudus with add-ons being part of the deal if Spurs win either the Premier League or Champions League.

So that will be a bid of £60m then.

Other Reading

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Admin

Right, that’s the end of issue 13 as we edge closer to a new season.

The sprint to 50 subscribers begins, I want to and I will get that knocked off by the start of the season with your help. You have read, subscribed but now also tell a friend.

Also, continual feedback is certainly going to help drive this forward. If you want to take the time to tell me what you liked, what you didn’t like and/or what you want to see.

My email for correspondence and any networking/promo requests is

[email protected]

Issue 14 will be out on Friday July 11th

Thanks for reading

Dan