Four becomes two. England dumped out late on. Messi looking for the double, Spain looking to conquer the world. All eyes on Sunday, less about the third-place playoff the night before. Issue 116. Go.

England’s Lions left without a roar.

It’s the hope that kills you, it’s always the bloody hope that kills you when it comes to following England. People can say that watching the national team is boring and they are right when the level of jeopardy is not there but what jeopardy we’ve had this summer.

Pushed close by the trio of DR Congo, Mexico and Norway almost fed into the momentum of following Thomas Tuchel’s men in North America, each victory framed as slightly more heroic than the last.

Had England pushed aside their opening three knockout opponents, it would have been a case of simply meeting expectations. Truth be told, there was nothing simple in any of those matches.

Which only added to the folklore of this England side. Hey Jude, the phrase of the tournament, Kane showing he was more than able both inside and outside the penalty area.

Add the late defensive cameos of Dan Burn that symbolised the footballing equivalent of the blitz spirit and digging in and there was plenty to like about this current crop of England internationals.

Which Leads Us To Wednesday

While there was even more to like by the time Anthony Gordon had given England the lead over Argentina in midweek. Rapture both in attendance and in pubs, bars and houses back home, it felt like a momentous occasion was waiting around the corner.

All England had to do was see the job through. All Thomas Tuchel had to do was decide how best to do it.

With the benefit of hindsight, I think it is fair to say that Tuchel went to the defensive well one too many times.

To expand on that, I would say this:

If England see it out, then everyone laudes England's resolute showing in the last 10-15 minutes, another Dan Burn defensive cameo celebrated across the country.

This is the obvious flipside when it goes against you. You can get away with those tactics against Mexico and Norway, less so against Argentina.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing and there was a sense of well the plan has got us this far, it will get us to the final but that's also the danger of reverting to type.

Stings more because it was in our grasp again but the siege mentality only invited Argentina to do what they did. England fall short again, less a siege mentality more a losing one.

In the immediacy of England’s departure from the World Cup, there were always going to be calls for the manager to step down - this has happened in every exit I’ve witnessed bar the exception of say Terry Venables at Euro 96 when he had already announced his departure.

The noisiest section of support fills the vacuum that comes with such bitter disappointment and especially when many will feel that Tuchel himself was culpable for England’s demise.

However, that noise has a tendency to dissipate after a few days and although the dust has not quite settled what with a third-place playoff with France still to be contested, I’d be surprised if we were looking for another new manager post-tournament.

Admittedly the objective was met as set out by the FA but the hurdles in which difficult conversations could have been required were also cleared, if nothing else the former Chelsea boss should get the opportunity to take England into Euro 2028.

Not only because of what was achieved in North America but also due to the FA. being in the same position as they were beforehand - that being a paucity of genuine contenders to take the job.

What has really changed in terms of the managerial landscape these past few months or at least from a realistic England-led perspective. Lee Carsley still sits patiently as Under-21 manager, Eddie Howe is still Newcastle boss for now.

The only other candidate that could be considered at this current time is Pep Guardiola. No longer at the head of the Manchester City empire, probably the wrong time to consider jumping straight into the international arena.

Then again, maybe moving into international warfare may not be such a good idea for Guardiola. If only because it is not as simple as you think, you only have to look at Carlo Ancelotti at Brazil for evidence of that.

The man who has won it all, a simple plug and play for Brazil on the way to a first World Cup success since 2002. Only it is not that simple, instead you have a former assistant and a former age-group manager plotting out World Cup success before Sunday.

Of course, the same simplicity was meant to be there for Tuchel and England but maybe the prospect of walking into international football and winning the lot is a lot more difficult than first thought.

Because international football is not club football with fewer matches.

It is a completely different challenge.

There is no daily training ground environment where managers can refine every detail. No opportunity to bring in players who perfectly fit a system. No transfer window to correct weaknesses. No chance to spend three years building a squad around a philosophy.

Instead, managers inherit what they have and when they inherit what they have, it can sometimes boil down by a couple of decisions. If they go your way, you are considered a genius. If they go against you, you are considered the idiot.

Fine margins as always, England learned their margin of error was just too big on Wednesday.

By Harry Kane’s own standards, his performance against Argentina was not up to scratch and when it comes to England’s biggest occasions, you could argue that seems to always be the case.

When you need him most, you expect your talisman to do the business, but the business has been closed down since the 2018 edition of the World Cup and England’s semi-final with Croatia.

A series of busts for the Bayern Munich forward but is this a Kane problem or an England problem that hampers their star man? If you look at it through a different lens, I would say it is the latter.

Why?

Because of England reverting to defensive type and when this happens, it means Kane drops far too deep in search of the ball. Distribution is not the problem, the problem is that he becomes the distributor.

The benefit of hindsight is wonderful and all that but had England been prepared to be braver and more expansive, that would have surely allowed Kane to play the game that he plays in earlier rounds of international tournaments.

The game where he scores the goals that matter, the game that gets you to the grand stages of the semi-final or final. A game that he is not allowed to play when England really need him to play it.

A game that he may also be unable to play for much longer as football’s father time is starting to run out on him and although he has not publicly declared that the 2030 World Cup will be one too far, deep down you get the feeling that already is.

Which leads us to Euro 2028 and Kane’s likely last hurrah for England but what if form or injury drops off' before the home tournament, where does whoever is in charge turn to in the hope for a plan b?

Ollie Watkins and Ivan Toney will both be 32 by the time Euro 2028 comes around, that does not necessarily rule them out but who knows if they will even be leading the line for a club side in two years’ time.

While Chelsea’s Liam Delap seemed to have joined the graveyard of forwards at Stamford Bridge. Admittedly injury has not helped the former Ipswich hitman but a constant change of managers will not have helped him either.

Delap now has to convince Xabi Alonso that he is the man that can be trusted through the middle, if he can earn that trust and more importantly get among the goals, he could be Kane’s heir apparent for the 2030 World Cup.

Of course, a lot can change in that four-year cycle and just as how Kane was never really meant to be the man to take the reins from Wayne Rooney, his relative slow burn from nowhere shows that the next superstar could just as easily be lurking in the shadows.

For now the shadow is on Kane and although surpassing Peter Shilton’s record of 125 international caps for England should be easy to overtake in the next few months, capturing success with the national team is proving to be far more difficult.

So there you have it, five weeks of international action in the history books, 102 of the 104 scheduled tournament matches now contested. This weekend will sort out the order of the last four, it is the last two which we really care about.

Spain getting the better of France on Tuesday night, Argentina booking their place in the final 24 hours. Will that extra rest play into the hands of the Euro 2024 winners or will it be a non-factor?

While there is something to factor in before Sunday - this is the first time that the defending European Champions and Copa America winners have subsequently met in a World Cup final.

The two teams were meant to meet in the UEFA/CONMEBOL Finalissima four months ago but it all got rather hot in the Middle East around the time, so player safety won out with the fixture unable to be scheduled elsewhere.

Not only that, but considering these two nations are both considered as heavyweights of the international stage, they hardly ever meet each other. They’ve only met once in the World Cup.

1966 and all that but this time it was not Geoff Hurst snatching the headlines, it was Argentina snatching two group stage points after coming from behind to win 2-1 at Villa Park.

The connection to Villa Park in 2026 will be Emi Martinez in the Argentina goal and with him being considered the best goalkeeper in the world, he may have to live up to that status if the game goes to penalties.

If it does, it may mean that Spanish defending has won out over 120 minutes, this has been a key aspect of their progress to the final. A surprise considering the attacking talent they have among their ranks.

The tournament has not been lit up by Lamine Yamal but maybe he is keeping his powder dry for when it matters most. Is Sunday the day where Lionel Messi passes the baton of greatness on or decides to keep hold of it for just a little while longer?

Argentina represent the old order. The experience, the suffering, the belief that comes from years of near misses before finally reaching the summit. Their story has always been tied to Messi and the pursuit of the one trophy that had escaped him.

Spain represent something different. A new cycle, a new generation and a reminder that international football rarely stays still for long. The stars eventually fade, the next ones always arrive.

Which boils down to this; will Sunday reward greatness or hand it to those who are ready to run with it. The outcome of the 2026 World Cup final will end up having the answer for us all.

Before we close the book on this World Cup, I wanted to take a moment to ask for your help.

The Real Football Filter has now reached Issue 116.

That is more than a year of publishing twice a week, analysing the money, media, performance and power shaping the modern game.

The biggest challenge has not been finding things to write about. Football, thankfully, continues to provide endless stories.

The challenge has been making sure more people find it.

So if you have enjoyed reading, whether it is the first issue you have opened or you have been here since the beginning, I would really appreciate you sharing it with someone who you think would enjoy it.

Not because numbers are everything, but because the best newsletters grow through recommendation.

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