Two giants fall. One escapes an exit by the skin of their teeth. The Round of 32 may be a new concept at the World Cup but it is already proving its worth. Manchester City have a new manager, Scotland now need one of their own. It’s all going on. Issue 111. Go.

Paying The Penalty

Julian Nagelsmann’s future must surely be in doubt

After the rather anti-climatic beginning to the World Cup’s Round of 32 on Sunday, things have now certainly sprung into life as the Group Stage phase of the tournament is now left behind.

Canada edging past South Africa thanks to an injury-time winner from Stephen Eustáquio, no winner across 120 minutes of football could be found in the games between Germany and Paraguay and the Netherlands and Morocco.

More on the second of those in a bit, a focus on the first as Germany’s recent record at the World Cup continues to be far from inspiring. The four-time winners failing to make the last 16 for the third successive tournament.

2018 and 2022 saw them dumped out at the Group Stage, perhaps that lessens the shock factor of their 2026 exit but even if they are not the heavyweight that they were even 12 years ago, they should have been able to get the better of a middleweight opponent.

Admittedly, Germany thought the job was complete in extra-time after Jonathan Tah headed home. However, his celebrations were cut short when VAR intervened after a foul of Paraguay ‘keeper Orlando Gill.

A harsh decision but not as harsh as being dumped out of the tournament from a distance of 12 yards. Kai Havertz, Nick Woltemade and Tah all failing from the spot, the spotlight now placed on manager Nagelsmann.

What Happens Now

This World Cup exit comes off the back of failure to win their hosting of the European Championships back in 2024. That tournament saw them dumped out by eventual winners Spain at the last eight stage - what Germany would give to even reach that stage at a World Cup.

Obvious disappointment at not being able to win Euro 2024 on home soil but there was always the belief that everything was building up towards a proper crack at World Cup success.

Now their defeat to Paraguay has only served to highlight further cracks within the German setup. While at the same time, there may even be cracks within the psyche of Nagelsmann himself.

Although he may only be 38 - a mere junior in relative coaching circles, this is a man who has already been around the block for quite some time. 10 years to be exact, a career that includes a stint as Bayern Munich manager between 2021 and 2023.

Then again, his stint ended in rather auspicious fashion. Given the boot with just over a month of the Bundesliga season remaining and a point behind then leaders Dortmund, it was left to Thomas Tuchel to reel in Bayern’s rivals in order to win another league crown.

Which may suggest that Nagelsmann has already climbed the mountain of coaching German’s biggest club and the nation’s senior team. There will always be a job for him, but maybe it is diminishing returns from here on in.

If he is given his marching orders, then one wonders if the stars will have aligned for Jurgen Klopp to lead the march to Euro 2028 and beyond. There may never be a better time to bring in the former Liverpool manager, that time must surely be now.

If the DFB decide enough is enough, Jurgen Klopp suddenly becomes the obvious candidate. Opportunities to appoint Germany's biggest managerial name rarely arrive gift-wrapped. This one just might.

Rocked By Casbah

Are Morocco the new dark horses?

Paraguay doing the business from 12 yards, Morocco doing the same just a few hours later. Admittedly the level of precision between the AFCON “winners” and the Netherlands was not great but if we’re being honest, it only added to the drama that unfolded.

Which means Mohamed Ouahbi’s men are now firmly in the Round of 16 and have arguably taken the darkhorse mantle from the Netherlands. Then again, can we really label the North African outfit as such.

On the face of it, it likely does them a disservice. After all, this is a side that reached the semi-finals in Qatar four years ago, I’ll let you decide if they are actually the reigning AFCON champions or not.

Regardless if you give that mantle to Senegal or not, this is still a side that is brimming with the talents of Brahim Diaz and Achraf Hakimi to name but two, to see them getting the better of Netherlands is far from a fluke.

Which means that Morocco are certainly a team to be feared for as long as they are in the competition but at the same time, they are not a side that should be considered as a surprise either.

They are now seemingly in that second tier of nations - the ones that are yet to win a World Cup but could still have every chance of finally getting their hands on the trophy in a few weeks time,

The Netherlands and Japan may have been in that group at the start of the week, Portugal and Norway will look to stay in that bracket by the time the Round of 32 reaches its conclusion.

The gap between the elite and the tier below is shrinking, the gap between the elite and all 48 teams in this World Cup is far thinner than what everyone expected it to be and the by product of this, is a rather fascinating tournament to date.

(That is if you ignore the hydration breaks)

A Wilted Flower

Steve Clarke calls time on his time as Scotland boss

Just as the embers of Scotland's World Cup campaign in North America appeared to be fading, Steve Clarke reignited the conversation by stepping down as national team manager, barely a month after agreeing a new four-year contract with the Scottish FA.

The timing caught almost everyone by surprise.

On one hand, Clarke leaves as the man who guided Scotland to three major tournaments in four attempts, ending decades of disappointment and restoring belief that qualification was becoming the expectation rather than the exception. That achievement should not be overlooked.

Yet football has never been judged solely on getting to the finals.

Once there, Scotland once again failed to survive the group stage. Euro 2020 ended in disappointment. Euro 2024 brought more of the same. World Cup 2026 followed an all-too-familiar script, with Scotland exiting before the knockout rounds despite the expanded tournament format.

For the thousands of supporters who travelled across the Atlantic, it was another painful ending. Qualification had become a habit under Clarke, but progression at the tournaments themselves remained frustratingly out of reach.

That is the contradiction which will define his seven years in charge.

There were unforgettable nights along the way. Victories over Spain and Denmark at Hampden will live long in the memory, while Scotland consistently proved they could compete during qualification campaigns. Clarke changed expectations around the national team and deserves enormous credit for that transformation.

Unfortunately, the summer months never matched the promise of the autumn and spring.

When the pressure increased against the world's best, Scotland repeatedly struggled to impose themselves. Too often they found themselves chasing games rather than controlling them, creating too little in attack while inviting sustained pressure at the other end. The performances lacked the conviction that had become a trademark during qualification.

Ultimately, that is why Clarke's reign will be viewed with mixed emotions. He restored pride in qualifying for major tournaments, but he never managed to deliver the breakthrough once Scotland arrived.

His legacy will depend entirely on which side of that argument carries more weight.

Did the Scottish FA get the timing completely wrong?

While Clarke's departure closes one chapter, attention now turns to another question altogether.

Why did the Scottish FA feel the need to hand him a new four-year contract before a ball had even been kicked at the World Cup?

It was a decision that appeared unnecessary then and looks even more questionable now.

Scotland were about to enter the biggest examination of Clarke's tenure. The tournament represented the perfect opportunity to assess whether the national team had finally taken the next step after successive group-stage exits at the European Championships.

Instead, that judgement was made before the evidence was available.

Had Scotland enjoyed a memorable run, the contract extension would have looked entirely justified. If they underperformed, the SFA could still have rewarded Clarke afterwards from a position of certainty.

There was simply no obvious advantage in rushing the decision.

Instead, the Scottish FA placed itself in an awkward position. Once Scotland's campaign unravelled, attention inevitably shifted towards the manager's future rather than the football itself. Questions that could easily have been avoided became impossible to ignore.

It also leaves room for speculation that never needed to exist. Was the new contract simply a public vote of confidence? Did the SFA believe stability outweighed any risk? Or was it designed to remove uncertainty before the tournament began?

Those questions are unlikely to receive definitive answers. What is clear is that the timing has backfired and it has backfired in some fashion.

Rather than entering the World Cup with complete focus on football, Scotland now leave it reflecting on a contract that lasted little more than a month before the manager walked away.

Perhaps the simplest approach would have been the best one.

Wait until the tournament had finished.

Whatever the outcome, everyone would have been making decisions armed with the full picture rather than trying to predict what was about to unfold.

Now, instead of discussing how Scotland build on World Cup qualification, the conversation has already moved on to finding the next man capable of finally taking the Tartan Army beyond the group stage.

Maresca At Manchester

It’s what we’ve all been expecting

Manchester City have announced their successor to Pep Guardiola and to the surprise of absolutely nobody, it is former Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca.

The announcement made on Monday, then subsequently followed by a statement by the Italian:

That, of course, was then followed by a rebuttal from Chelsea who confirmed that Maresca’s head was turned once whispers regarding Guardiola’s departure had escaped from the Etihad.

Chelsea eventually getting some compensation from their Premier League counterparts after having their season disrupted by Maresca’s head being turned. Will the installation of Xabi Alonso end up being a net benefit to the Blues in all of this?

Chelsea may ultimately view this as an expensive inconvenience rather than a disaster. If Alonso proves the superior coach, City's compensation payment could look like money well earned.

Of course, Maresca now gets the keys to the Etihad and a squad that now includes Elliot Anderson after his mega money move from Nottingham Forest. It will be interesting to see what relationship new manager and player can form at the start of next season.

An Unnecessary Rebadge

It’s not the PGMOL anymore

In one of those stories that makes little sense but its going to happen anyway, the PGMOL (the group that oversees referees in the Premier League) has decided it is going to rebrand as Pro Ref.

The reason for the rebrand is to make the group sound more professional. In my opinion, you can call the group what you want but what is it they say, you cannot polish a turd.

If it means better refereeing standards and better use of VAR, then it will be worthwhile but it’s a big ask for this to happen so I guess we will have to wait and see what effect it has - my money is not a very positive one.

Admin


That’s the end of Issue 111 as the World Cup is now a firm member of the football family.

If you’ve read this far, you’re clearly in early. So if you know someone who’d enjoy football viewed a bit differently, send it their way. That’s what keeps this growing.

This isn’t a newsletter that follows the crowd. It filters the game through a different lens and more than 220 subscribers are already reading it that way.

Issue 112 lands Friday. Another round of distortions as football does what it always does: speeds up and makes less sense.

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