Issue 11 - Feeling Under Pressure

We enter the month of July and edge closer to a new Premier League season. With that in mind, it’s time to put 20 managers back under the magnifying glass while also taking a quick look at the latest football movements. Issue 11. Start your engines.

The Pressure Rankings

In issue 8 of the newsletter I mentioned a concept that I have been working that attempts to measure the pressure that Premier League managers could be under at the start of the new campaign.

If you have joined since then or missed that issue, you can get up to speed on the framework of the concept here > Issue 8

Now that the catch-up classes have been taken or you are already au fait with the explanation, it is time to put some more meat on the bones. Meat that comes in looking at last season’s Premier League outright odds before a ball has been kicked.

The odds themselves are not relevant as that shipped has sailed. However, I will list the clubs in order of those market odds:

A table that in isolation does not offer a great deal of insight but what if we combine these positions against the 2024/25 Premier League table finishes?

If we do so, we can then create a Golf-style Par score. Under par means a club’s league finish was better than the bookmakers’ expectation. An over par means the exact opposite.

At the top of the leaderboard, we all know that Forest exceeded expectations by the biggest distance of all and were it not for Nuno’s men having a mini-collapse in the final weeks, their under par score could have been even greater.

Forest top of the list, three positions clear of Brentford under the managerial services of Thomas Frank and it is the Dane’s beating of expectation that would have played a huge part in him eventually picking up the Tottenham job just a few weeks ago.

Of course, Liverpool must be noted for their -2 under par score. Not the biggest difference, but big enough to make sure Arne Slot would oversee a Premier League title success at the first time of asking.

Liverpool’s under par the same as Newcastle, Bournemouth and Ipswich who all finished two positions better off than bookmaker expectation - even if it still meant relegation for the Tractor Boys.

The Horror Stories

If those can be considered as the notable success stories, then it is time to turn up the temperature and look at those men who will be out of the frying pan and straight back into the fire in just a few weeks.

If these are the clubs that finished over-par, we can now tweak this slightly and this is due to Southampton’s relegation and the fact that Ange Postecoglou has already been sent packing:

Now if you were to use these results as the managers who are most under pressure before a ball has been kicked then a top three of Amorim, Potter and Guardiola is not that far from the mark.

Amorim - failure to win the Europa League final and a terrible start to his time at Old Trafford

Potter - little in the way of new manager bounce at the London Stadium. Feels like he needs a good start to the campaign

Guardiola - Grip on the Premier League title finally relinquished, FA Cup final defeat. Embarassment in the Club World Cup. Pressure, yes. Exit door, no.

While an eye would also be on Keith Andrews at Brentford, Vitor Pereira at Wolves and the promoted managerial trio.

The former for being the wildcard in all of this, the latter for having an overpar finish but having credit in the bank for fulfilling the objective of keeping the Molineux men in the top tier.

Now, the beauty of these rankings is that they can be fluid. Sometimes, we may have a state of calm when nobody is under pressure (although with the Premier League narrative, there is always somebody), other times there is a real state of flux and the list could be rather long.

Hopefully in a few weeks, we will be able to compare this to the “First Manager To Leave” Odds.

To provide further context to whether a club is going to be over or under par, I’ve now got the 2025/26 outright odds and after the first 10 games, we can apply the same bookmaker predictions versus league placing comparisons as above.

Absolutely Hilalrious

The Club World Cup engineered a rather interesting plotline in the small hours of the morning as Manchester City were dumped out the last eight by Saudi Arabian outfit Al Hilal.

Is this a sign that the sands of global football are shifting? Perhaps not.

Blowing The Bonus

Will be Manchester City be miffed at not holding on to their mantle of being classed the best club in the world? Probably not but missing out on £97m in prize money is going to sting for the Etihad higher echelon.

For FIFA there will be a sense of validation - especially after the Bayern Munich massacre of Auckland City just a few weeks ago and although the result will be celebrated throughout the Asian confederation, there has barely been a ripple within England.

Conspiracy theorists will point to the Saudi influence that underpins this fuller version of the Club World Cup. Even more so, if Al Hilal make further inroads to the final or even go on to win them title itself.

While the underpinning of Saudi influence also raises a good point and because of Manchester City and Chelsea’s participation in the competition, they are inadvertently getting a helping hand from the PIF.

Biting The Helping Hand

A helping hand that is not necessarily welcomed by Newcastle and although the link can be considered indirect at best and tenuous at worst, fans of the Magpies will be wondering if this influence should not be diverted elsewhere.

Perhaps not the influence but certainly the money and with PSR restrictions continuing to rear its ugly head on Tyneside, the sight of their Etihad and Stamford Bridge earning a bumper pay packet at their expense must be one of frustration.

Of course, this indirect funding will also be dished out to Champions League cohorts such as Real Madrid and Bayern Munich - helping swell their bank accounts before another summer of continental largesse and boosting their bids to reign supreme.

But at the same time, what is the solution in all of this. The PIF want to increase their influence in today’s global landscape and that influence is only going to get bigger. Therefore, Newcastle fans may just have to continue to watch with an element of disgruntlement.

The only other option is not being part of the PIF umbrella whatsoever and having the cord cut completely. Not something that rational Magpies are calling for anytime soon as they know that Saudi connections are going to give them a greater chance of smashing through the glass ceiling once and for all.

The Filter Five

Five more footballing snapshots for you to flick through.

Fender Bender

Monday night saw Newcastle break the Sam Fender emergency marketing glass once again and the launch of their new third strip was well received. Unfortunately it was too well received or should that be flagged.

With a Japanese Magpie making the video, his Imperial Japanese-style flag had made it past the editor’s. Unfortunately, that style of flag is highly offensive to South Koreans and guess where Eddie Howe and his men are soon going on tour….yep, you guessed it.

Expect a hasty edit and a re-release in the days to come.

Finding The PSR Loophole

June 30th usually offers examples of creative accounting and this year was no different as Aston Villa have uncovered another PSR swizz. This time, they have agreed to sell their women’s team to US-investors and a stake in the club.

The Premier League have no issues with the deal, UEFA will have to decide whether they want to approve it or not but considering they begrudgingly did the same with Chelsea, it is set to be another example of hating the players and the game.

Talking Of Chelsea

Below is the panel of players that could be part of Chelsea’s 2025/26 Premier League squad. Honestly, their transfer business is like a disease and one that nobody has a cure for. Give it 20 years or so and everyone in the UK will have be signed by Todd Boehly.

Kepa Keeper

If you are a Chelsea player and you are looking to move on this summer. Then please use this handy transfer flow chart:

Are You Looking To Stay In London? Y/N

Y

You Have Selected Arsenal

Kepa becoming the next player to make the move from Stamford Bridge to the Emirates, it really is the place where ex-Chelsea players careers go to die.

More Delay In South London

The decision to grant Crystal Palace a place in the Europa League has been delayed further and it seems to be down to a simple act of cowardice by UEFA - no massive surprise there.

With Lyon appealing their relegation to France’s second tier, UEFA have now said that the domestic governing body will lead on the decision and if the one-time giant of French football is relegated, then Palace are safe.

If they win their appeal, then lawyers on either side of the English Channel will be rubbing their hands together with glee at the prospect of further courtroom appearances.

Admin

Right, that’s the end of issue 11. Big thanks to everyone who not only subscribes but more importantly reads the newsletter.

The sprint to 50 subscribers begins, I want to and I will get that knocked off by the start of the season with your help.

Also, continual feedback is certainly going to help drive this forward. If you want to take the time to tell me what you liked, what you didn’t like and/or what you want to see.

My email for correspondence is

[email protected]

Issue 12 will be out on Friday July 4th

Thanks for reading

Dan