The Premier League has its final lesson for the class of 2025/26. Tottenham stay up at the expense of West Ham. Sunderland find themselves in Europe. Andoni says goodbye as Mikel finally gets his hands on trophy. Let’s make sense of Sunday shall we. Issue 101. Go.

Arsenal crowned champions, the Gunners also the most consistent side across their last 100 Premier League games played. All that consistency counted for nothing before the middle of last week, now it reinforces they are gold standard in English football.

Mikel Arteta’s men have won 64 of their last 100 games, a 1% edge over Manchester City after their defeat to Aston Villa on the final day and what was of course Pep Guardiola’s final game in charge of the Etihad outfit.

Life imitating art as far as the top two are concerned, a mirror image of how this season’s top two have pushed each over so close over the course of the past three years, albeit with a Liverpool title win thrown in for good measure.

Their fall from last season’s mountain top sees the Anfield outfit sit third in the table with 57 wins from their last 100. A figure that has left them in something of no-man’s land when it comes to whether they can mount a title challenge or not.

Too far away from Arsenal and Manchester City but still some distance away from Aston Villa as Unai Emery’s men are just shy of one win every other game. A feat that is hard to achieve. A feat that is good enough to sit also fourth in this table.

For all the unpredictability associated with football, the broad picture remained remarkably stable.

The clubs that have won most consistently over a prolonged period are still the clubs occupying the highest positions.

With a standard deviation of just 3.85 league places between win ranking and final league position, the data suggests most teams finish within roughly four places of where their long-term record indicates they belong.

The largest negative gaps between win ranking and league position belonged to Chelsea and Newcastle United.

Chelsea ranked fifth in the league for wins across their last 100 matches, winning 47% of games. Yet they finished 10th in the final table.

A five-place gap suggests a side whose underlying level remained stronger than their league finish indicated.

Newcastle's drop was even greater.

Despite ranking sixth for victories with a 44% win rate, they ended the campaign in 12th place.

Part of the explanation lies in volatility.

Newcastle lost 39 of their last 100 Premier League matches—more defeats than any other side ranked in the top half of the win table.

When they perform well, they often win. When they don't, they tend to lose rather than grind out draws.

That inconsistency ultimately drags down league finishes.

Every model has exceptions. In this case, that exception is Sunderland.

The Black Cats ranked just 18th for victories over their last 100 Premier League matches, posting a modest 26% win rate.

Ordinarily, that profile would suggest a relegation candidate. Instead, Sunderland finished seventh.

No other club came close to matching an 11-place positive gap between win ranking and final position.

The explanation is relatively straightforward.

Unlike most clubs in the sample, Sunderland's recent history includes promotion, adaptation to the Premier League and rapid improvement. Their rolling 100-game record still contains matches from a significantly weaker period.

As a result, the dataset is effectively looking backwards while Sunderland are moving forwards.

Rather than exposing a flaw in the 100 Club concept, Sunderland demonstrate one of its limitations: long-term measures can lag behind clubs experiencing dramatic upward momentum.

Among established Premier League clubs, Manchester United produced the strongest overperformance. The Red Devils ranked seventh for victories but finished third in the final standings.

The difference highlights an important point. League tables are built on points, not wins.

While United's 41% win rate lags behind Liverpool, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Newcastle, they compensate by avoiding defeat more effectively than many rivals.

Their ability to turn potential losses into draws helped create a stronger league position than their win percentage alone would suggest.

If Sunderland are the biggest outlier, Bournemouth may be the most interesting tactical case study. The Cherries recorded the highest draw percentage in the division at 34%.

Only Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool and Aston Villa avoided defeat more often.

That ability to consistently collect points, even without winning, helped Bournemouth finish sixth despite ranking only ninth for victories over their last 100 games.

Their profile reinforces a simple truth often overlooked in football analysis.

A team does not always need to win more matches to climb the table; it simply needs to lose fewer.

While some clubs outperformed their historical profile, Tottenham Hotspur did little to suggest their struggles were merely temporary.

Spurs ranked 14th for victories and finished 17th. The more concerning statistic was their loss rate.

They lost 48 of their last 100 Premier League matches, the second-highest total in the division.

A 33% win rate may look average on the surface. A 48% loss rate looks like a club that has spent several seasons moving in the wrong direction.

The data suggests Tottenham's difficulties cannot be explained away as a single poor campaign. Their position reflects a longer-term trend.

The summer is always important, even more so under current manager Roberto De Zerbi

At the opposite end of the table, the 100 Club proved equally effective.

West Ham, Wolves and Burnley all occupied the bottom four positions for win percentage and all three were relegated.

Burnley were particularly notable.

Across their last 100 Premier League matches, they posted:

Few clubs have ever looked more accurately represented by their historical record.

The only major exception was Sunderland, whose rapid rise disrupted the normal relationship between long-term performance and league position.

While wins drive headlines, another statistic may tell an equally important story.

Avoid-defeat percentage: the proportion of matches ending in either a win or draw—proved highly aligned with league performance.

Arsenal led the way at 87%.

Manchester City followed on 84%.

Liverpool recorded 81%.

At the other end of the scale, Wolves managed 45% and Burnley just 40%.

Both were relegated.

The pattern suggests that successful teams are not simply better at winning.

They are better at preventing defeats. It sounds obvious, but over a 100-game sample the impact becomes impossible to ignore.

The real value of the 100 Club is not predicting individual seasons. It is identifying a club's underlying level.

Over 100 matches, countless variables come and go. Managers are replaced. Players are sold. Injuries occur. Momentum shifts.

Yet the clubs with the strongest long-term winning habits still tend to occupy the highest positions.

The fact that Arsenal, Manchester City and Aston Villa matched their final league positions exactly, while the overall variation remained relatively low at 3.85 places, demonstrates the power of looking beyond a single campaign.

The most interesting stories are not the clubs that fit the model. They are the clubs that don't.

Spurs survive. West Ham wounded. The Hammers did their bit at the London Stadium with a rather comprehensive 3-0 win over Leeds, but unfortunately Everton failed to do their bit just six miles north.

Roberto De Zerbi manages to come in and revive Spurs’ shipwreck of the season, at one stage it looked on Sunday as if all nine of his substitutes were playing the role of assistant manager in a bid to keep Tottenham in the Premier League.

That being said, even after going ahead in the first half, there were still plenty of nerves in the second. Everton fancied having a go in the last 10 minutes, Antonin Kinsky making a hugely important save.

Credit to the Czech keeper after his confidence was absolutely mauled recently in Madrid. His save at home to Leeds recently was as valuable as it was heroic, full credit for being one of the stand out players under Roberto De Zerbi.

As for West Ham, a case of too little too late. Jarrod Bowen’s Instagram message was crafted along the lines of “it’s not you, it’s us” - whether that turns out to be his break up with the club also remains to be seen.

The same could be said for Hammers boss Nuno Espirito Santo. Will he be given the right to try and take West Ham out of the Championship at the first time of asking or will the club roll the dice again?

Aston Villa’s celebrations after winning the Europa League were extended into Sunday and in doing so, they dampened Pep Guardiola’s goodbye party at the Etihad. That win may have kept Unai Emery’s men in fourth but it then shut the door on an extra Champions League invite for Bournemouth in sixth.

Liverpool said goodbye to both Mo Salah and Andy Robertson. Their wooden plaque of the club’s trophy roll of honour was a rather strange gift for all their service. Arne Slot at least get the gift of a third season in charge at Anfield.

Three was the magic number for Manchester United as they made light work of Brighton at The Amex. Bruno Fernandes got his 21st and record-breaking assist in a single season. That’s 30 goal contributions in this league campaign, of which nine were goals.

Does that devalue the concept of goal contributions as a metric? Probably but it’s a debate I’ll get into another day.

Brighton’s defeat to Man United left the seventh place door open for Brentford. Unfortunately for Keith Andrews’ men, Sunderland kicked it down themselves and bagged the spare Europa League berth that was subsequently up for grabs.

The Black Cats getting the better of Chelsea to leap into seventh. The cynic in me says that the Blues board decided to dial down the intensity and miss out on European football altogether. Look at how United have benefitted from no trips to continent, will Xabi Alonso game the system next season?

Next season will also see Brighton in the Conference League. Whisper it quietly but I think that is the more fun of the two lesser European competitions. Which leads us to…

Crystal Palace lost their Conference League final warm up on Sunday to newly crowned champions Arsenal. Not the Eagles will care as the game was played at almost charity game intensity.

The intensity of Mikel Arteta getting its rewards at last, fans queing for hours if not days just to get a seat in the pub. Slowly but surely, the Gunners have become part of the daily London zeitgeist. That in itself is design rather than accident.

The kind of symbiotic link with a city that Real Madrid and PSG have with theirs, Arsenal are now starting to form with the capital.

Burnley managed to avoid finishing bottom of the Premier League after their 1-1 draw at home to Wolves. The slightest modicum of pride for the Clarets after avoiding the Wooden Spoon but it means little what with Championship football now their agenda.

Fulham ended their season with a comfortable 2-0 win at home to Newcastle. Is that Marco Silva’s last game in charge? Fans of the Magpies may be miffed that it is not Eddie Howe’s after that showing.

A disappointing season now made all the more frustrating now that Sunderland have earned European football at their expense. The Black Cats gained a six-point swing on Newcastle. If it were the other way, St James’ Park would be hosting European football next season.

After all the furore surrounding Spy Gate, Hull’s EFL Championship play-off win felt like the ‘right’ result on Saturday. Had Middlesbrough won, there would have always been something a bit murky about it, questions about whether they should have been in the final at all.

The fact that Hull said before the final that they were also considering legal action if they did not win only made the waters even muddier (imagine the additional carnage of that) but thankfully Oli McBurnie’s late goal means no more courtroom drama for now.

The news that Hearts fans did not want to hear. Lawrence Shankland has left Hearts to go to Rangers. Is this the feeling that deep down he and his teammates believe they will never get so close to a Scottish Premiership title?

Perhaps and although there is the obvious pull of Shankland being a Rangers supporter, it is only going to put further pressure on Hearts to even be part of next season’s title race and show that the 2025/26 was not just a flash in the pan.

Personally, I don’t think 3-0 is a thrashing. For me, it has to be at least four goals (depending on opposition) but at least five.

For context, I think you can dominate a game and win by three goals but that in itself is not enough for a thrashing. Let me know what you make out the thrash count to be.

The days of England facing San Marino and Andorra are finally over - well at least they soon will be. A new two-tier process for European Championship and World Cup qualification processes is to begin from the start of the Euro 2028 cycle.

More of the continent’s elite playing each other, the minnows being left to their own devices with a few qualifying crumbs up for grabs - where have we heard that before?

Basically it’s going to be like the Champions League. More games, less jeopardy, greater apathy I imagine as protectionism wins above all else. The existing system is not perfect but surely it has to be better than this.

After all the legal wrangles that came with Crystal Palace winning the FA Cup last season and then being dumped into the Conference League after Nottingham Forest dobbed them into UEFA, it will be pretty sweet if they get the better of Rayo Vallecano and end up in Europe’s second tier competition after all.

Right, that’s the end of issue 101 as word continues to spread around the football world.

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Issue 102 drops Friday, I’ll be back with another round of insight, analysis and trends that matter. Any feedback or comments on this issue, contact me below:

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